Given that the press coverage has been all about Big Rom’s contract, with a trickle of stadium speculation, you’d be surprised to know the Toffees actually play at the weekend.
All of the drama over this saga ignores two tenets — one, that there are still 30 points to play for, that is a lot, and the teams above us are distracted with other competitions, in terrible veins of form, or both. Second, that the worry about Romelu leaving is hysterical, because there aren’t that many solutions as to where he goes, and how Everton replaces him.
Without agreeing a new contract with a set release clause, Everton have the ability to only accept an offer suitable for the club. If Everton decide not to sell, a real option, Lukaku won’t destroy the team or refuse to play. Not with a World Cup coming up. If Everton decide to sell, Lukaku’s agent might have hurt his client’s flexibility in negotiating for another client.
Given Pogba’s lacklustre season, Rom’s grand one, and the 89.3 million fee, it stands to reason that our Belgian should cost at least as much.
So, who can pay that kind of fee (without incurring sanctions for FFP)? It basically leaves you with United, PSG, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern, Chelsea, Juventus, and City. How many of these clubs need a centre forward?
Well, Madrid don’t with Benzema and Morata; Chelsea don’t with Costa and Batshuayi; Barca doesn’t with Suarez and Alacer; United doesn’t with Zlatan, Rashford, and Martial; Bayern doesn’t with Lewandowski and Muller; City have Gabriel Jesus, Aguero, and Iheanacho; Juve has Higuan, Dybala, and Mandzukic; PSG have the need, and the money to spend, but at this rate, they might not even be in the Champions League next season, if they finish third in France, and get drawn with a tough qualifier.
As for the other clubs, they would have to sell to buy to make room for Lukaku to start. How many of them will take that risk? What will the market be for those players they are selling?
But even then, what is stopping some of these clubs from buying elsewhere to strengthen their squads? Romelu is one option, but so are Timo Werner, Andrea Belotti, Alexandre Lacazette, Moussa Dembele and Andre Silva. For the club looking for depth over a given starter, you could look at next tier, but those types of players aren’t a guaranteed 20 goals, and aren’t going to be adequate replacements for Lukaku. Would anyone trade Rom for Vincent Janssen, Divock Origi, Andre Grey, Josh King, or Lukasz Teodorczyk? I didn’t think so.
So if we are to sell him, we would have to replace him with one of forwards above. This switch around will either drive prices up, or cause them to bottom out when some of the clubs decide they are willing to sit pat with their option.
Either way, it means Rom won’t be going anywhere unless there is a replacement to be made. None of that is going to stop Steve Walsh and Everton from investing at the forward position. But given the demand for forwards right now, a lot is going to have to happen for Lukaku leave.
In the meantime, Toffees need to worry about getting wins, especially at Anfield.
Reader Comments (26)
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1 Posted 16/03/2017 at 02:13:19
With the exception of Griezmann, Lukaku will probably sell for more than any other European forward this summer, if he goes. That would give us plenty of money to buy some top players in return. I imagine we could bring in a couple of decent players with any potential money from Lukaku and Niasse. Steve Walsh and Ronald Koeman should be aware of all top strikers across world football. Plus we will have our tv money. We should have a bit of a war chest if this all happens in the summer!
2 Posted 16/03/2017 at 09:25:18
3 Posted 16/03/2017 at 17:21:40
4 Posted 16/03/2017 at 20:21:26
Bring in players who match his quality even if it means players like Ross have to sit the bench or move on. Anything else will result in Everton continuing to strive to remain a perennial contender for "best of the rest" honors.
5 Posted 16/03/2017 at 21:57:26
Everton should of put a release fee of £60 million after two years into a five year contract. He would have been here five years then. This would have been fair on him.
If we are in the Champions League by then we have fulfilled his ambition. If not, he can go for a reasonable amount at the age of 25.
6 Posted 17/03/2017 at 09:14:25
There's a lot of hysteria surrounding this and many of us are sounding desperate, we're sounding like the straw clutching spurs fans, prior to Bale moving to Madrid.
Is Lukaku ambitious? Yes. If we can't match his ambition with investment and success, he'll go elsewhere. He has no loyalty ties with the club and lets face it, some of the fans have been openly hostile to him. We have to get the best out of him whilst he's here. We have to plan for his departure and also plan to get the best price for him. Either that or give him the success via investment and improvement.
7 Posted 17/03/2017 at 10:44:57
We have Valencia and Calvert-Lewin as current replacements and I am sure that we will buy someone in the summer. We have had 3 years out of him which is about the average for a Premier League foreign player anything more is a bonus.
It's a team game as Leicester proved last year, it's not about one or two superstars. Jim @3 above hit the nail on the head, modern football is like hunting in packs not playing for the one guy up top.
8 Posted 17/03/2017 at 10:59:04
I'd be sad to see him go but confident that, so long as Walsh and Koeman do their jobs well, we could come out stronger the other side in the way Spurs have post Gareth Bale.
9 Posted 17/03/2017 at 15:56:17
Lukaku wants to see the club show their ambition but who could we bring in that would demonstrate that?
Most of us would say we definitely need a centre back but so do most of the clubs above us; it will be the same with the other positions that need strengthening.
We're going to have to splash the money early on and hopefully get the jump on other teams but it's going to be hard... I hope we can pull it off.
Just when I was starting to believe.
11 Posted 17/03/2017 at 18:48:29
What was interesting was no better this season excepted than Cottee, Lineker or Beardsley.
So our reliance is not the weakness it may appear to be should he move on.
12 Posted 17/03/2017 at 19:01:31
Lukaku has been our main striker for the last four years yet, in all that time, not one youth player has come close to being an adequate replacement. So that's more millions we'll have to spend on replacing him.
I wouldn't mind but if his replacement turns out to be any good in a few years from now we'll be looking for a replacement for him because no doubt he'll want to play in the Champions League, and we still won't have a replacement from our own youth teams.
13 Posted 17/03/2017 at 20:40:11
We are the Lukaku Show right now. Good as the show is, there is always another, maybe better.
14 Posted 17/03/2017 at 23:31:32
The other side of that is that the simple thing is to keep him. A player who STILL hasn't asked to leave.
He and Ross are the players we build around, not get rid of.
15 Posted 18/03/2017 at 06:10:53
Midfielders score goals. Wingers score goals. Defenders score goals. The way I see it, if he leaves then it's a good opportunity to change the way we play so as not rely on him for goals which is a style which has hitherto only got us no higher than 7th place.
16 Posted 18/03/2017 at 13:15:48
In days gone by it always amused me to see strikers bought and fail. The owner/managers couldn't see the strike partnerships and so failed to buy the 2 players that made up the strike force. Okay, this is old shit but I think it isn't much different now.
Over to you Derek Thomas as you might be somewhat more analytical than me on this.
17 Posted 18/03/2017 at 18:04:05
About time we refreshed our scouting team and decision making (Walsh alone can't cover the world) and we should be ready for any contingency and have players lined up, not make panic reactions.
We are short on forwards already, we should have at least 3 vying for the positions, not letting Lukaku strut around thinking he's indispensable.
We need some proper hitmen negotiators when dealing with transfers instead of fannying about hoping for the best like gullible fools.
18 Posted 18/03/2017 at 18:46:32
19 Posted 19/03/2017 at 07:53:36
What Lukaku offers for me is irreplaceable.
Pace, power, finishing with either foot is devastating (frustrates me the amount of so-called top players these days who are one footed).
But Lukaku is clinical with both feet.
I also believe his first touch and hold up play has improved immensely this season.
I see no replacement available that will join Everton not being in the Champions League.
We are not going to get Harry Kane or Sergio Aguero here and not going to get Robert Lewandowski or Suarez.
Dembele at Celtic, I'm sorry but he's not to Lukaku's standard, I'd fancy myself of scoring double figures in the Scottish League.
Its sad we have to accept Lukaku will leave, When you consider how badly Everton have struggled for prolific strikers over the years, we revered Big Dunc but in reality he was never really a top top striker that was capable of scoring 15 plus a season, Rooney wasn't here long enough, and the rest like Johnson, Beattie, Bent, nothing more than honest workers really.
There's only been Saha and Yakubu who had looked capable of being explosive and neither of those could do it consistently nor lead the line as well as Lukaku.
Its worth enjoying the final embers of a truly outstanding goalscorer again at Everton Football Club.
It could be a long time before we see one of that ilk again.
20 Posted 19/03/2017 at 18:51:23
We seem to have been getting plenty of wins lately? Fishy!
22 Posted 19/03/2017 at 19:21:51
Koeman and his team have done nothing wrong yet but to be honest have seemingly made every effort to improve us as much as possible. I only hope that, when the summer window opens, we will have time to analyse some quality coming in before anyone leaves.
23 Posted 20/03/2017 at 02:20:23
But with European football, a pile of cash, a new stadium, youth players flooding into the first team squad, quality already added this season in Schneiderlin, Bolasie and Gana, and Barkley back on track and back in the England squad... we are in a much better position than last summer to attract the players we need.
I am pretty sure Sunderland will go down and Kone will trigger a release clause to join us early in the summer transfer window. OK - not a world beater but one piece of the jigsaw and will help us to build momentum
24 Posted 20/03/2017 at 09:02:57
25 Posted 20/03/2017 at 19:44:39
I remember being outraged when we part exchanged Howard Kendall for Bob Latchford. Latch healed the pain. Howard healed the pain.
I miss Steven Naismith, he embodies everything that is decent in this world. He wouldn't get a run-out once a season with us now. Having said that, I'd pop him on the bench for our next fixture. Cos he'd score. He just would.
Tom Davies, plus the mark two Ross Barkley, plus the new loud and assertive Joel Robles. Youngsters adding massive amounts of experience, understanding and craft.
Idrissa Gana Gueye. The EPL's most wise buy. We must never ever sell this midfield wizard. He is THREE men in a single jersey. He puts the ROYAL into our Blue. Alan Ball would love him.
26 Posted 20/03/2017 at 19:58:08
27 Posted 20/03/2017 at 20:53:59
He should also remember it was EFC that gave him a permanent deal when he was struggling. Think on, Rom.
28 Posted 25/03/2017 at 17:53:09
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