The CIES Football Observatory research team has developed a powerful approach to estimate on a scientific basis the transfer value of professional football players. Issue number 192 of the Weekly Post presents the list of the 110 big-5 league footballers with an estimated value of more than €40 million.

Estimated transfer values, millions €uros

No surprise that our very own motormouth is up at #13 (€104.4M);

Eric Dier at #21 (€85.0M);

John Stones surprisingly at #37 (€71.2M – didn't he flop already at Man City?)

Shkodran Mustafi at #69 (€54.1M);

But no place, it seems, for our Diamond, Ross Barkley? No even worth (€40.0M)? I suppose the estimates of around £30M (~€33.9M) are therefore accurate – although didn't we want £50M for him?

This compilation might also help those amongst us who like to post seemingly endless lists of players' names that Everton should be bringing in as we head into another summer of endless fun and intrigue in the transfer market.


Reader Comments (32)

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David Fanning
1 Posted 12/06/2017 at 14:56:14
I don't post here often, but I have to ask other Evertonians: does no one smell the giant rat that presently assails my careworn nostrils?

Lukaku and Barkley are for sale, for £100m and £50m respectively, and the board are looking at replacements for Yakubu / Beattie money. Even if those players are the great bargains we hope they are, this sounds suspiciously like a continuation of the Kenwright mid-table-comfortable-profitability business model. If the plan is to mount a proper challenge for the top four, why are players refusing to sign contracts, citing precisely that as their reasons for wanting away?

I read that Moshiri's plans for the new stadium do not involve him actually putting his own actual money in. Dunno how true that is. The proposals for a 50,000-seat stadium seem unambitious for a club challenging for the Champions League. Most of the other Champions League contenders in England have bigger ones already, without having the freedom of a clean-sheet design.

I fear that Moshiri's (and his Russian mate's) priority is the acquisition of Liverpool property, with Everton ownership and funding simply sugar for the pill of any tricky negotiations with the Corpy. Am I talking out of my arse, or what?

John Keating
2 Posted 12/06/2017 at 15:08:46
David,

Who know? You might be right but, Moshiri in 12 months has done more than the World's Greatest Evertonian has done in 20 years.

Mike Gaynes
3 Posted 12/06/2017 at 16:30:09
David... they may be for sale but they aren’t sold, or close to being sold. Nobody’s in for either as far as we know. That £150m you want Moshiri to spend is purely theoretical right now. If we get it and he doesn’t spend it, THEN you’ve got something to complain about.
Ian Burns
4 Posted 12/06/2017 at 16:58:19
David, the answer to your last question is: "Yes".
Ray Roche
5 Posted 12/06/2017 at 17:00:39
David Fanning,

Could you advise me where I can find evidence of Barkley, who I assume is one of the players you refer to as refusing to sign their contracts, making any statement, let alone citing "Kenwright mid-table-comfortable-profitability business model. " as the reason for not signing?

Barkley and his agent have been almost silent on his reasons for not signing so I will be pleased if you can provide some proof to substantiate your post.

Ray Roche
6 Posted 12/06/2017 at 18:05:28
David Fanning,

You're not the only one concerned, however, if the current news re Klaassen and Sandro comes to fruition then things are looking a bit brighter.

Regarding Koeman's ultimatum to Barkley, the fact that he's not signed doesn't actually indicate WHY he hasn't. It might be purely down to money and greedy agent's as much as a perceived lack of ambition. Koeman came here because he could see Everton's ambition matched his own. And a huge pay rise of course.

Lukaku was, as I recall, bemoaning the fact that players we were supposed to be chasing chose to go elsewhere to savour Champions League football.

Mike Gaynes
7 Posted 12/06/2017 at 18:12:42
Ray, think I mentioned to you previously that there's no "greedy agent" in the picture with Barkley, at least not the stereotype we're all familiar with of the cigar-smoking Fellini character.

He's represented by a big company based in LA.

Ray Roche
8 Posted 12/06/2017 at 18:32:36
So, Mike, a big company in LA isn't capable of having "greed" as it's reason for advising Barkley against signing a new contract? As of now, I personally have yet to hear Barkley himself make any indication as to why he hasn't signed his contract.

Fellini...would that be the Fellini of "Satyricon" fame. ;-)

David Fanning
9 Posted 12/06/2017 at 18:44:45
Ray:

Yes, Barkley's reticence may be just a staring-out competition between his agent and Koeman. I hope that's what it is, and I hope that Koeman wins, even if it means losing Barkley to save face.

In the past, CL-standard players have stayed at Everton for a few seasons, before eventually moving on to potentially more successful clubs. Gravesen, Arteta and Fellaini spring to mind. Lukaku's behaviour, and Barkley's stand-off, suggest that a career at Everton is less attractive than it was then. It is as if, five or ten years ago, an ambitious player would stay at Everton, possibly speculating that the Club would deliver them to Champions League football, without any need for a transfer to a club already there. These recent developments suggest that the players already know that the Club's ambitions are smaller. I hope I am wrong, of course.

Trevor Peers
10 Posted 12/06/2017 at 19:14:11
Barkley's silence is particularly treacherous. I think he has captured blue Bill's heart and will be offered a huge salary, much to Koeman's disgust.

Or maybe Spurs will offer the £40 million they are about to receive for Kyle Walker for Barkley... who knows?

Champions League player, though? You're having a laugh.

James Marshall
11 Posted 12/06/2017 at 19:40:32
When we spend big on players like Bolasie, people complain at the fee being too high - when we look at players going for what is today, a modest fee, people complain.

I'd love to know what all the experts think is the right price for all these players!

James Marshall
12 Posted 12/06/2017 at 19:43:35
And on the Barkley issue - there is the small matter of history (not the old if yer know yer 'istory stuff}. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ross is looking at what happened to Rooney who ultimately made the right choice to leave Everton (like it or not). Becoming the all time top scorer for Man Utd & England. You can't really knock that.
Brian Williams
13 Posted 12/06/2017 at 19:47:14
Difference between Barkley and Rooney situation, though James, is that Rooney was by far the most outstanding English player of his generation in his position. Barkley is light-years away from being that.
Ray Roche
14 Posted 12/06/2017 at 19:51:04
David Fanning

Not a lot to argue against in your post. I do think, though, that Champions League football appears to be the be-all and end-all for some players. They know that if they sign for a club in the Champions League, that they'll receive top money whatever happens and the thought of them sitting on a bench with the occasional cameo doesn't put them off at all. Sad.

Phil Walling
15 Posted 12/06/2017 at 22:58:44
With all the signings Koeman and Walsh have lined up, Barkley, if he stays, will struggle to get in the side.

Lukaku is on a long term contract so if nobody's prepared to cough up £100M, we are stuck with him. (Thank gawd!)

Keane is in the bag, I hear, as is Saints' reserve reserve rightback. And we've got all these kiddies World Cup winners to integrate. On the bench.

Alan J Thompson
16 Posted 13/06/2017 at 06:56:32
Michael: It was Rooney that it was said that £50M was wanted so if the same has been said about Barkley then it probably means £27M on the never-never, partly covered by players the buyer no longer needs in the next 12 months and depending on what they win and how many contracts he signs. Ring Bill, he'll explain the niceties of obviously intricate negotiation.

Anyone know how much we still owe for Lukaku?

Alan J Thompson
17 Posted 13/06/2017 at 07:03:55
...and don't anyone dare ask who holds Deulofeu's registration!
Nigel Munford
18 Posted 13/06/2017 at 08:14:02
Barkley rejects contract in the Daily Mirror
Dan Nulty
19 Posted 13/06/2017 at 13:58:14
Regarding Barkley, the comments I have heard: the reason for the delay is simply the agent. He has been hawking Ross around to Spurs, Arsenal & Arsenal (Mourinho, Conte and Guardiola flat out not interested). The issue is two fold, he is trying to hold both Everton and the other clubs to ransom given he is only a year away from finishing. Clubs are balking at the fee Everton want and his wage demands. The thing is I've heard it isn't his wage demands just for the transfer at the moment, the agent is also trying to negotiate wages if Ross goes for a free transfer next June and the clubs are balking even more at those.

I don't believe for a second that Ross is that motivated by money but his agent is leading things. I think the reality is that his agent thinks Ross' value is actually far more than it actually is.

I think it will be no surprise to see another two signings through the door and then Ross announced as signing a new deal. If we end up letting his contract wind down then Bill needs a kick.

Brian Williams
20 Posted 13/06/2017 at 14:07:26
Dan (#18) – Where's the info from, mate?

Secondly, if Ross chooses to run down his contract, it's not Bill's fault (for once). He can't be forced out of the door or sold against his will so, if he did run down his contract after the club trying everything possible, I'm afraid Bill would be blameless!

Eric Myles
21 Posted 13/06/2017 at 14:36:47
We've agreed £30 mill with Sunderland for Pickford, according to the BBC.
Paul Kossoff
22 Posted 13/06/2017 at 14:40:20
Everton are eyeing a move for Saint-Etienne's Guinea defender Florentin Pogba, 26, the elder brother of Manchester United midfielder Paul. (Talksport) I know it's talk shite, but is he any good?
Oliver Molloy
23 Posted 13/06/2017 at 15:19:13
Barkley has not signed the contract offered because he and his agent reckon he's worth more. It is all about the money or greed to be very cynical.

Go back to when Koeman said: "The club will offer this player the contract a player like him is worth".

That says everything for me.

Keith Monaghan
24 Posted 13/06/2017 at 16:53:09
Like all footballers, Barkley has a mind of his own, doesn't he? His agent works for him, not the other way round; if Ross wanted to sign the contract offered, surely he would, especially if he's the loyal Evertonian some on here think he is.

I don't know the details of his offer, but I'll bet it would pay him more in a week that most, if not all, of us get in a year.

I hope Bill Kenwright doesn't take the decision on this – the signings of the likes of Gascoigne & Ginola demonstrate why –and also that bringing Rooney back would be an act of folly! We'd have to be crazy to let his example of the behaviour of a professional sportsmen anywhere near our youngsters like Tom Davies etc.

Peter Lee
25 Posted 13/06/2017 at 18:29:17
Keith, I wouldn't want facts to get in the way but Gascoigne and Ginola were bought and released by Everton before Bill Kenwright became Chairman in 2004.

Regarding his putting money into the club:

His net worth was put at £33m in 2015 in a Daily Mirror Premiership survey. Only the chairs of Norwich and Swansea were less wealthy.

Kenwright has two passions in his working/social life, live theatre and Everton FC. He is no Cameron Macintosh however he has put on a huge number of productions over the years. Doing so is expensive in money terms and exhausting otherwise as anyone will know who has been involved in any amateur dramatic production, much less several at a time.

At one time, as the trade press reported, he borrowed from every source possible to get "Blood Brothers" on Broadway. It paid off.

Likewise he did the same to buy his stake in Everton and subsequently to retain it.

The consortium of which he was a part paid £20m for some 23800 shares, valued at the time at around £840 each. If reports are true, Farhad Moshiri bought 17150 shares at a price around £5800 per share. This gives a healthy profit indeed.

However, £20m invested at 8% compounded quarterly over 18 years would give a return of £84m and don't forget that Kenwright was paying interest on the loans. Whatever else he might have done, making his fortune isn't part of it.

If you are interested, you can however buy Everton shares for around £2000 each.

Brian Williams
26 Posted 13/06/2017 at 18:39:55
Peter (#25).

Excellent post, Peter. I have to say while not being a "Kenwright apologist", "Luvvie Lover", or anything else some people get called on here for not being totally anti-Kenwright, I get annoyed at the number who slag the man rotten for anything and everything when it's quite obvious they know next to nothing about the financial goings on and who made how much etc etc.

Most of them I can't even be bothered to discuss the facts with as they've already decided he's "raped" the club of millions, which is as ridiculous as it is rubbish!

Jay Wood
27 Posted 13/06/2017 at 19:16:22
Sorry Peter @25, not wishing to turn this thread into a pro-anti BK bash, but it's rather ironic you write you "wouldn't want facts to get in the way of" somebody else's post.

Why ironic? Because you omit a great deal of detail from your timeline in reference to the purchases and subsequent releases of Gascoigne and Ginola.

Bill Kenwright was first enlisted as a director to the Everton board in 1989, a full 11 years before G&G were recruited.

In 1994 BK 'stepped aside' and did not pursue his bid to purchase the club, allowing Peter Johnson a free run to complete his buy-out. As 'reward' for this, Johnson installed BK as club vice-chairman, with Philip Carter returning as chairman. Not a junior member of the board at all then.

In 1999 - more than a year before either G&G were recruited by Walter Smith - BK bought out Johnson giving him a 68% controlling interest of the club. Rather than assume the club chairmanship for himself, he was happy for Philip Carter to retain that position until 2004 when, as you correctly say, BK became chairman.

That rather gives a very different slant on things than the one you offered in your own post. Quite clearly, BK although not chairman in title at the time of signing Gascoigne and Ginola, was very much the head honcho at the club, by any criteria you wish to apply.

I also distinctly remember a radio interview with BK in the summer of 2000 when he did indeed endorse the signing of Gascoigne with the following comments:

"We backed Walter Smith in the transfer market as much as we could and he did good business. But then I asked him 'What about something for me? Something for the fans to get excited about? The cherry on the cake?' And Walter said you mean someone like Gazzer? And I said 'Exactly!' And that's when we started actively looking to recruit Gascoigne."

I'm sure, a stickler for accuracy as you evidently are, you will appreciate my attempt to clarify a few facts on this episode.

Michael Kenrick
28 Posted 13/06/2017 at 19:45:56
Peter,

You make a good point about the repeated allegations that Kenwright was extracting money from the club (although fewer these days). I've often followed up on here and asked for proof: never forthcoming.

However, I think your point about Kenwright not being Chairman in 2004 hides the fact that Sir Phillip Carter was more of a figurehead, and that Kenwright as Vice-Chairman would have surely had a say in the acquisition of the two aging superstars.

Regarding Moshiri, my numbers are slightly different:

Number of Shares: 17,465 (49.9% of 35,000)
Share Value: £5,000
Kenwright's shares sold: 4,788
Kenwright's partial cash-out: £23.94M
Average rate of return: 12.6% APR

So Bill did rather well out of his investment in Everton Shares; excellent log-term growth. But his payout didn't come from the club – it came from Moshiri.

If the spot share price has risen to £2k, that is showing some appreciation, but it still puzzles me why it is so far short of the implicit value Moshiri paid (£5k at least). Is it because this number has never been published directly, and spot purchases are private transactions dictated by admittedly a very small number of participants in that market?

Peter Lee
29 Posted 13/06/2017 at 20:24:01
The spot price is a puzzle, Michael. There is a premium to be paid for control but it seems excessive. Perhaps others can explain.

I don't know how much Kenwright borrowed in total but you'd have to knock the interest off any profit which brings it more into line with the return on a standard investment.

Take your point about Carter.

Keith Monaghan
30 Posted 14/06/2017 at 00:38:00
Some excellent posts by Peter & others after mine.

For the record, I am neither excessively against or in favour of Bill; I think he's done many good things for our club & on balance his leadership has been positive. However, whilst an admirer of emotions, I firmly believe that, when being a key player in the management of a club, big decisions must be based upon the needs of the business and not driven by emotion & sentimentality.

As a footnote, if we pull off the signing of Pickford, I view it as very positive; but I think we need to retain Robles as well – we need two decent keepers and I still think Robles has the makings of a very good one – a few bad decisions (eg, conceding the penalty conceded against Burnley) have blemished his performances.

Des Farren
31 Posted 14/06/2017 at 19:36:31
Two things strike me about these figures:

Spurs have nine (9) players on this list. Walker is valued at €40mill. We tried to sign him for £5 mill but were gazumped. If this is scientific, I confess to being left behind in all this progress.

Anthony Hawkins
32 Posted 15/06/2017 at 12:35:21
A couple of things:

1. What is this rat we speak of?

2. That list cannot be right. Raheem Sterling at #15 and Marcus Rashford at #39 with Bale at #43? I know Ronaldo's brand is stronger than Bales but it's not 32 places stronger. That's without Dele Alli and Harry Kane being placed #2 and #3. I'd take Ronaldo or Messi for both those. I'd also place our Coleman above Kyle Walker #110 and definitely above Nathan Redmond #55.

That list is way off.

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