Based on the same results in the remaining games as in last season’s matches, then the league would finish as shown in this projected final table [pdf file]. It does seem to have become the big 1, let alone the big 4! United will finish well clear of Liverpool — who despite all the bravado are only doing as well as last year! Obviously they have had the easier part of their fixture list! The real question is will Chelsea and Arsenal continue to slide as Villa improve and so they break the Sky 4 monopoly?
It looks like we become increasingly secure in 6th as Portsmouth have now dropped 8 points in the last 7 games so could slide even further back. Villa — on the same remaining fixtures last year picked up 36 points, we picked up 29. So if we are to make it past them we need 42 — which is close to Champions form, and that is as unlikely as us signing a world class striker in January. So 6th it will be.
As we all know, our home form has been awful, and this is confirmed that we are 7 points down at home but the away form is exactly the same as it was last year for the corresponding fixtures.
As for the rest of the league, can we believe 8th would be West Ham with less than 50 points? Remember Walter’s first season when we were 13th with 50? The bets for relegation? Hull are bottom still — but 21 points better than Derby. However they have now gone 4 matches matching Derby’s performance, so maybe they are stalling, but still should be safe. So West Brom, who are matching Reading, and Sunderland seem to be in danger, along with Blackburn who are down a massive 15 points on last season. However, look out from Boro, who have slumped 8 points in the last 4 games and now down to 40 points. But given it is only 12 points between 8th and 18th, then this is really looking like a season where nothing is certain.
And now I wait for all the comments that last year is no guarantee of this year blah blah… but all I add is that about 40% of results are the same from one year to the next, so perhaps a better method than most but still with imperfections.
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