Fans Comment
Daniel Mckeown

It's in Our Hands
26 March 2005

What an opportunity!  10 points clear with only eight games to go, surely nobody could take our rightful position in the Champions League away from us?  But, Everton being Everton, we could never go about it the easy way, not when they could make us loose a few more years off our lives first.

I won’t go into much detail about the Derby as it has been analysed to death, but the end of it is, too many players didn’t turn up on the day (Osman, Bent, Yobo).  People may have excuses for all of them, but the fact remains the work ethic that has got us were we are just wasn’t there.  There is a bright side, and I am sure Liverpool may have enjoyed their victory, but they wont have enjoyed the prospect of loosing Baros for three games and four players also getting injured during the game. It was a good win but a pricey win.

I also thought it was nice to see them celebrating on the pitch at the end.  You may be thinking am I a closet red, but I assure you I am not; I just enjoyed it because it shows how far we have come.  There was a time not so long ago that they expected to beat us home or away; not any more!  By their celebrations, that was one of their biggest results of the season.  They didn’t celebrate that much when they beat Arsenal.  Once again, we are a team that is being recognised and we are marching in the right direction, and at quite a pace.

It is done and we are still fourth, four points clear and with only eight games to go.  Our destiny is still in our own hands.  It's not the time to look back and question what we should of done; instead, we should be looking at the next eight games and thinking what we have to do.  West Brom is the biggest game of the season now.  On the back of their amazing 4-1 at Charlton, they deserve credit and look like a very dangerous outfit, but it is a game that Everton simply must win.

If you look at the games that we have left West Brom, Crystal Palace, Birmingham City and Fulham are all must-wins.  Then there is Newcastle at home and Bolton away; they are a bit trickier but we have to look to try and get something from them.  Finally there are the two throw-away games: Man Utd at home and away to Arsenal.  The eternal optimist may say we can get something from Man Utd or Arsenal, but you have to be honest and say we aren’t at their standard, yet.

Our main two rivals it seems for the fourth place spot are Liverpool and another surprise package of Bolton.  Their run-ins are just as hard as ours.  Liverpool are four points behind and Bolton five; the next game itself is an opportunity for us though, because they play each other.  Whatever the result, at least one of them will drop points; either we have a chance to go eight clear of Bolton, seven clear of Liverpool or they draw and we could go six points and seven points of them both.  This all depends on us winning that must win game against West Brom.  We also have the advantage of our game being on the Sunday, this means we will know our position and what opportunity we have — we simply must take it.

Liverpool’s must-win games are: Man City (away), Spurs (home), Crystal Palace (away), Middlesbrough (home) and Aston Villa (home).  A few of them have the potential for them to struggle.  Man City have a new manager in Stuart Pearce and will be looking to impress; Spurs have a very good team and are capable of beating anybody; while Middlesbrough will be fighting for a place in the Uefa Cup.  They also have to face Portsmouth and Arsenal away, which are both hard places to go and win.

Since I have predicted that Everton will get 12 points from their last eight games, that means Liverpool must get 16, as long as their goal difference remains better than ours, to claim that fourth place spot.  With a run-in like theirs it will be quite difficult to win five and draw one of them, especially considering their form.  Liverpool also have to think that in between the Spurs and Man City games they have European games against Juventus that could affect their league performance as well. So, despite Liverpool’s position, they will do well to get the necessary points.

For Bolton, their run-in is just as difficult with only two games they can class as must-wins: Fulham (home) and Southampton (home).  Their home form is one of their strongest points and a big reason why they are in the position they are in.  Their other remaining home games are Chelsea and Everton (on the last day of the season).  Chelsea will be looking to wrap up the title and hopefully will have already clinched our Champions League spot. T

Bolton have four away ties that could all be potential banana skins, Liverpool is first, then a trip to the Valley to meet Charlton, who are riding high in seventh; then Aston Villa and finishing with a trip to Portsmouth.  So, many difficult games for Bolton... it is hard to see where they will get the five points more than us that they need — not to mention that their goal difference is only one better than ours so they probably need six points more than us. [Er... no; if they catch us on points then they will definitely have a better goal difference — Ed.]

If we can do as I predict and win those four games, I can't see either side being able to get the points they need to keep us from the Champions League.  It is totally in our hands.  We have fought so hard to get into this position, we can’t just let it slip away.  The Derby match hurt us all but it is gone now and we have to get behind our team again and make sure in the next two games we get maximum points that will put us well on the way to our European trip.

Daniel  Mckeown

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