The Rob Fox Column Columnist: Rob Fox
The X-factor by Rob Fox 15 September 2005
The knives may not yet be out, but the cutlery drawers are certainly rattling and a few people are already testing the sharpness of their blades. Even a staunch disciple of the Moyesiah can’t deny there are one or two cracks at the moment and the man himself is showing one or two worrying signs or mortality.
Last Saturday’s defeat to Portsmouth was hard to take for many reasons, but the main one for me was the predictable wringing of hands that would follow. It was a bad defeat, and ‘disappointing’ doesn’t seem appropriate but at the moment it’s probably fair comment. A few more results like that and we will be officially in crisis and, in some people’s eyes, Moyes’s head will be firmly on the block.
We are playing Dinamo Bucharest today and the result will either crank up or ease the pressure, but should not change anybody’s view of the situation, unless you are one of those people who simply makes a knee-jerk reaction to every result and changes your opinion accordingly. But of course that won’t apply to us clued-up Blues... I accept at this point that some Blues have expressed concern at Moyes’s methods for some time and they have as much right to their considered view as those who have the utmost faith in the manager.
Still, I can’t help looking back at the amount of patience and understanding the likes of Mike Walker and Walter Smith got at the time and wondering why so many people have itchy trigger-fingers when it comes to Moyes. In the current climate, it should come as no surprise — but I am honestly surprised how many Blues seem to think that the manager’s time at Everton should be drawing to a close. Haven’t we got just a little carried away with ourselves?
Some Evertonians have voiced their disbelief that other supporters seem to have such short memories and little patience, but I think it goes deeper than that. Last season, most Blues were happy to go along with the ride, accepting that we were on a magical mystery tour that could be derailed at any moment. Now it seems some have forgotten the path we had to take to reach 4th place and have begun to believe that being one of the mythical Big 5 is now ours by right — just like the good old days! Selective memory doesn’t even come close...
In a recent mailbag response on ToffeeWeb, the editor stated that the manager should have the rest of this season to rectify the situation. Personally, I think this is still a bit harsh, but then again I suppose it depends on what you consider to be an acceptable season. Obviously a relegation struggle, unless there were extreme mitigating circumstances, would clearly put the manager under huge pressure.
Nobody is bombproof but, even if we do struggle, I do not believe this should necessarily result in the sack for Moyes — although I suppose it depends on the circumstances. It seems ridiculous to be saying this (and personally I don’t believe his job should be under any threat at all) but obviously some people do, and poor results can easily sway a lot of others. At present, it is hard to see where our next goal is coming from, let alone a win, but these things can change very quickly.
What is clear is that matching last season’s finish is a tall order. The fact that we have picked up just 24 points from our last 23 Premiership games tells its own story. Perhaps it is fair to disregard the last 2 games of last season, and take into account the toll on our small squad that the season took as well as the number of injuries at present. The fact remains, no matter how you look at it, is that post-Gravesen results have been poor and an improvement is needed. He has been a big loss, but it is worth remembering how inconsistent he was in a 4-4-2 formation and how it was Moyes’s tactical nous which got the best out of him.
Being realistic, a top-half finish would constitute a reasonable season; down to perhaps 15th would be disappointing but by no means terminal. Taking Fulham as an example, they had a poor season last time after a good one previously but Coleman rightly survived and has been given time to put things right. Another poor season, though, and he would be lucky to survive, rightly or wrongly.
We are not Fulham, you might say, but sadly in 2005 being Everton counts for nothing much in particular. To the rest of the world we are considered no more highly than Fulham, Charlton, Middlesbrough, Aston Villa or Birmingham. Season after season of mediocrity, on and off the field, have ensured that. Although the quality of football on show may not always reflect it, the Premiership is a very tough league, as everybody outside of the top 3 will testify.
The quality may not always match some other leagues in terms of technique, but in terms of competitiveness it is extremely tough, in the same respect that the Championship may not be of the highest quality but is still a tough league to play your way out of as last season’s relegated teams will testify. Maybe I’m clutching at straws, but last night our loveable neighbours scored 2 away from home in Europe having only managed to notch a solitary goal, past rock bottom Sunderland, in 3 Premiership games this season.
I sat through the second half of Bolton and Blackburn on Sunday. I wouldn’t have normally, but the weekend couldn’t have got much worse... so what the hell. What was striking was how similar the fare they served up was to our game, with the home team labouring to breach a well-organised defence and the visitors looking vaguely dangerous on the counter attack. The overall impression was of two sluggers cancelling each other out, and that is becoming typical of the Premiership these days.
Maybe it’s coincidental that when Italian football was awash with money it became increasingly, and depressingly, obsessed with not being beaten. Now the same is true of the Premiership. We don’t score many goals, but most of the time neither do anyone else. Even the Champions are primarily based on being solid and effective ahead of being entertaining.
The difference is they can spend over £20M to cover a position they are already strong in; there is no doubt that, if we could afford to have Shaun Wright-Phillips and Arjen Robben fighting for one place, I would not be writing this article now. The fact is the financial stakes are now so high for so many clubs that avoiding failure is more important than achieving success.
Sam Allardyce was asked in the post-match interview on Sunday whether it was naïve to expect to be entertained. He countered that it was, because teams like his have to fight to earn the right to play and that Blackburn did a very good job of closing them down. He also pointed out that supporters were now turning up in expectation, whereas before it was hope, and that that brought it’s own pressures. It is worth remembering also that Bolton lost 6 on the spin last season and briefly flirted with a relegation battle before storming back up the table. Nothing drastic was done to restore their fortunes; Allardyce simply made a few minor adjustments and worked through the ‘crisis’.
There is no doubt that at Goodison the crowd’s impatience can filter through to the players and affect their approach. Passes can be rushed, the players can feel pressured into pushing forward and leave themselves vulnerable, and the away team can pick them off. In the players’ minds, they know that there is no such thing as heroic failure anymore and that anything less than a comfortable win against all but the top sides, especially at home, is unacceptable.
Whatever happens this season, anything other than a top 4 place will feel like an anticlimax. The only possible equivalent to this would be a cup win, with Uefa Cup qualification suddenly a minimum requisite for most of us to constitute a decent season, despite the fact that Europe was a pipe-dream before Moyes arrived. To my mind, in order to realistically appraise our current position, we need to look at the reasons for last season’s success and remember what dire straits we were in when Moyes took over.
Most of this has been well documented so there is little point digging up old ground, other than to make a few points. There is no doubt the task facing Moyes was huge and over his reign there are certain qualities that have marked him out as different to his predecessor, and most of his contemporaries. Compare Saturday’s defeat to any number of home capitulations under Walter Smith, and look at the respective squad lists as well, and the fact that we have made progress is undeniable. Poor we may have been, but we were always in the game.
When Moyes first took over, he dispensed with the negativity of his predecessor by reverting to 4-4-2; played open, attacking football that sometimes backfired against better opposition; and instilled organisation, discipline and a work ethic. In his first full season we played mainly 4-4-2, with an occasional tinkering with 4-3-3 to ease in Wayne Rooney. Despite the lack of a consistent goalscorer, we had a system that utilised Radzinski superbly to get us on the front foot by using the channels well to exploit his pace then getting bodies up in support.
Evertonians were delighted that we had a manager who was able to motivate a disjointed, seemingly disinterested rabble into a side that challenged for Europe all season. His thoroughness, tactical acumen, will to win, passion and refusal to accept failure lightly shone through. The number of tight games which we managed to win was testament to this.
The following season we played 4-4-2 again and struggled. Moyes found that some players were now resisting his aggressive methods of motivation and narrow victories became narrow defeats and we flirted with, without ever being in serious danger of, relegation. With a bigger squad, cracks began to show in the spirit of the previous season. Something had to give, and after the infamous Summer of Discontent, seemingly it did with Moyes apparently changing his approach to man-management somewhat — with astonishing results!
We started last season with our backs to wall, pulled together and came out fighting. Moyes developed a system that played to our strengths. We built up a head of steam and scrapped and fought our way to 3rd place — 2nd briefly. The manager proved the doubters wrong by demonstrating the qualities he had showed in his first season, having learnt a few things along the way. Suddenly, it now seems he has lost all of these qualities and turned into Walter Smith.
Many supporters now use 4-5-1 as a stick to beat him with and highlight his supposed negativity, but the fact is 4-4-2 has been his preferred formation throughout his managerial career. What he has done repeatedly is adapt his tactics to suit his personnel; with the current crop, 4-5-1 may still be the most effective system until he can bring in the striker he wants.
Yes, I know, he had ample time, but for all the big names linked the only ones to actually move were Forssell, Bellamy, Baros and Owen. Didn’t we actually make an attempt to sign each of these? Oh, yeah, I forgot we are Everton and we have the divine right to sign whoever we choose. Still, failing that, why wait a few months for the player you want when you can sign an expensive stop-gap you are unsure about and then be unable to afford your preferred target when he becomes available at the right price?
If only Darren Bent had been willing to move north…. That last bit is total conjecture, but then so is 99% of what everybody else spouts about ‘missed’ targets. Still, if some people are happy to pass sentence and call for an execution without all the facts, that is up to them.
Personally, I quite like David Moyes and think he’s a pretty good manager. Alright then, I think he’s the best manager we could possibly have at present, and potentially our best ever. But even as a staunch fan of Moyes, it’s impossible to ignore the evidence of my own eyes. Saturday’s performance was dire, and the failings were obvious. After a few pints of anaesthetic in the Black Horse, I kept my head down until taking a quick glance at the match stats in one of the papers on Sunday.
These showed the match to be a very even contest in terms of possession and chances and confirmed in my mind that the result could have gone either way. This does not change the fact they were the better team on the day, but highlights the fine margins between success and failure. If we had won, regardless of the performance, most people would be happy and the cracks would be well and truly papered over, until the Wigan game at least.
Nonetheless, even the most blindly loyal Evertonian can’t deny we have one or two problems to solve at present. Portsmouth were no great shakes but they looked dangerous whenever they attacked whereas we looked laboured and short of inspiration. Some of their counter-attacks were none too subtle, but they attempted to exploit pace and width to breach our defences; with better finishing they could have really embarrassed us.
On the positive side, our defence looked as resilient as ever, if a little stretched at times; despite the lack of subtlety in our play, we could easily have won. It may be cold comfort, but having Arteta in the side does at least give us a threat at set-pieces and this could have proven crucial. This may seem like clutching at straws, but the point is there is very little to choose between the majority of Premiership teams and small factors such as this can be critical. Let’s face it, Bolton’s entire system revolves around set-pieces and being big grocks, and it is a sad state of affairs that this makes them one of the more successful teams at present.
Everton are often cited as the benchmark of what can be achieved against the odds. Yes, you too can work your bollocks off all season only to be stitched up and denied your hard-earned place in the Champions League, one way or another. Now, here we are 4 games into the new season and very few of us are truly excited at the prospect of the next stage of our long awaited European tour.
I saw some fella in the pub after Portsmouth with a T-shirt bearing the legend ‘Rafa Beneathus’ on the back and it brought everything home. Some lad sat near me was berating the players for ‘living off last season’ at the final whistle and it reminded me of exactly how I felt after we lost 0-3 to the current Champions of Europe around this time 2 years ago. I felt gutted, and realised that we were in for a slog of a season, but believed that this was all part of the process and that under Moyes we were heading in the right direction; patience would be required, as Nick Armitage so succinctly put it in his recent article.
Sorry, but for me nothing has changed. We are going through a difficult spell and there are two ways we can react. We can spit our dummies out and stamp our feet... or we can grit our teeth and get on with it. Let’s hope Moyes and the players don’t follow some supporters in doing the former or we really will have problems. Sorry, also, for mentioning the Champions of Europe but (somehow) that is what they are.
Maybe if they weren’t, there wouldn’t be so much negativity around at present, but their ‘win’ does at least highlight how fickle football can be and how results don’t always go the way they should. West Ham’s 4-0 demolition of Aston Villa highlighted this. Most West Ham fans were calling for Alan Pardew’s head a year ago, now he is being hailed as a genius. That’s football, and the much-maligned Terence Brown can now take the plaudits for sticking by his man when he was under fire.
Having said all that, on Saturday there was nobody to blame but ourselves. The most worrying aspect was that Moyes seemed to spend a lot of time in the dugout, and gave the impression that even he had little idea how to effect a significant change. His attributed comments afterwards, if they have been reported correctly, along the lines of trying 4-4-2 to show it wasn’t the answer are a worrying sign of suddenly becoming reactive to external pressures, even if there is a grain of truth in the statement.
But that’s as negative as I’m going to be, as I still have the utmost faith in the manager to solve our current conundrum, eventually. Some would argue that one signing — a striker — would solve the problem, but I’m not convinced it’s that simple. The clear problem is a lack of creativity in the last third, to the point where most of us see the short-term solution as being getting Van der Meyde fit as soon as possible. Maybe it will prove to be a long-term solution as well, but until he is fit we won’t know.
Obviously this sounds a bit desperate, but we are lacking a spark and at present it is hard to see where it is going to come from. How much of this is the fault of the manager rather than the players is open to conjecture. Looking more closely at Saturday’s performance may give one or two clues.
In the first half, we played with what was ostensibly a 4-4-2 formation, although in truth it was closer to the John Barnes patented 4-2-2-2. The only midfielder who looked to have any idea was Mikel Arteta, who was always able to find himself some space but was faced with a cluster of shirts ahead of him. Only Hibbert regularly provided an outlet, but he was then faced with the option of carrying the ball 40 yards and slinging in a pinpoint cross, playing it back into the congested midfield, or lumping it up to Ferguson. He tended to opt for the third choice more often than not. If only he was more confident in possession….
It occurred to me just before half-time that perhaps we were supposed to be playing 4-5-1 with Bent joining the attack from the right, but I’m pretty sure he was meant to be playing up front with Ferguson despite never being within 20 yards of him. In effect, we had two lone strikers. Added to the narrowness of the midfield, we were shambolic.
At half-time, I wondered whether it was down to Moyes’s tactics or the players lack of either confidence or intelligence. Kilbane is a shadow of the player from two years ago and is seemingly terrified to take a man on. Davies is a decent player but has so far offered no effective width whatsoever. Whether he also lacks confidence since his injuries I don’t know; I know many Spurs fans say he has always cut inside, but I’m sure I have vague memories of beating the odd full back and putting a cross in or hitting a fierce drive, maybe even against us.
We started the second half positively, with Davies and Kilbane at least starting off in wide positions. Whether Moyes was responding to the first-half failure or had simply reminded these players that was their role in the first place I’m not sure, but before long they had reverted to type and were both withdrawn to make way for Osman and McFadden, who at least seemed willing to follow instructions. McFadden even had a positive impact for the first time in a long while.
So, on the two occasions — start of the second half and after the substitutions — that Moyes was able to directly influence proceedings and ensure that we played with some width we, briefly, looked dangerous. So, perhaps we should look a little more closely at individual players.
Defensively we played well once again, with Yobo seemingly now having been shocked into keeping his concentration at all times. Valente is an aggressive full-back who tends to go for the ball and challenge rather than standing off like Pistone. He showed some good signs but clearly needs time to get up to the pace of the Premiership. I have said before that our set up at present would benefit greatly from strong, overlapping full-backs capable of putting in good crosses. Hopefully Valente will prove to be just such a player in time.
On paper, midfield is probably the strongest part of our team but at present there is no spark. Arteta tried to provide one but found himself trying to thread through the eye of a needle. Cahill clearly needs a rest, whilst Kilbane has been awful for some time and seems to have no confidence to go past a player any more; he consistently chooses the simple ball. Davies’s tendency to come inside is also infuriating and may suggest a similar lack of confidence, although it has been suggested that his drifting inside is down to the manager’s instructions. Personally, I doubt it, but it could be argued that Moyes knew what he was getting when he signed him. Leon Osman, when he has appeared, has been steady but little more.
Up front, we have Duncan Ferguson, who is, well, Duncan Ferguson. You know what you are going to get from him. Marcus Bent has never been the same since Beattie arrived and to be perfectly honest if Beattie had been playing like Bent has recently he would get absolutely slaughtered. When Beattie came on, suddenly we had a forward attempting to make runs and actually trying to make something happen in the area.
The simple fact is that, at present, there is little difference between 4-4-2 and 4-5-1 as the personnel is virtually identical anyway. Bent, Kilbane and Cahill are offering little at present and we are clearly short of inspiration. We have never replaced Gravesen’s ability to get on the ball consistently in threatening areas and use his power effectively. Arteta, Cahill, Davies and Osman may be game, but lack the physical presence to truly dominate in midfield.
Hopefully Phil Neville will prove to be the strong, aggressive anchor to a 4-man midfield that has seen Moyes attempt to sign Essien, Davis, Sissoko and, reportedly, Bouba-Diop and Etuhu. Nevertheless, while he gives us bite and some guile, he is not quite the physically powerful presence of a Keane, Vieira or even Parker, and dare I say, Sissoko.
Neville may well be a better player than Sissoko, but there is no denying that power is a great asset in the modern midfield. Kilbane is possibly our physically strongest midfielder, but I am not convinced he would make much difference in the middle. The upshot is that if we are planning to evolve towards 4-4-2, as I think we are, a lot is riding on Phil Neville. Lee Carsley offered us a solid base last season, but we need a bit more drive and hopefully Neville can provide this.
At present we are forced to try to pass our way through congested midfields against well-organised sides and we are finding it difficult. Joe Royle suffered when he tried to evolve the Dogs of War into a more cultured team, and Moyes faces a similar problem at present. We are generally keeping the ball better than in many years, but showing very little penetration. We seem to be caught halfway between our unsubtle but effective pressure game of last season and evolving into a patient, passing, controlled side.
Last season we had every player playing at full pelt consistently. This year, many are struggling to get going and our signings, Davies apart, have had no opportunity to make a difference as yet. Certainly Krøldrup is one player who may help us to evolve our passing game from the back. In the second half of last season we got through by virtue of a collective effort with every player giving just enough to make a difference. So far this year that has not happened enough to make the crucial difference; on Saturday’s evidence, confidence seems to be ebbing out of many of the players.
The only realistic option for Moyes at present is to work through the problems. He has shown before he is capable of doing just that. Beattie, like him or not, is the striker most likely to get goals, if fit, and needs to be involved. Whether he has a partner or not, we have to look at how we can get the ball into the right areas. If that means leaving Cahill, Kilbane or whoever on the bench, so be it. Moyes’s comments about Cahill’s form this week are a timely reminder to Tim that he is not superman and can’t continue to run himself into the ground.
Moyes’s comments on 4-4-2 raised a few eyebrows, although he is largely correct given the options currently available. Apart from the fact it weakens the midfield, finding the right combination is difficult. If you play 4-4-2, at least one of your strikers needs to be a reasonably consistent goalscorer. Ferguson and Bent have never been that type; McFadden has shown little to suggest he can do it; and Vaughan is injured.
Only Beattie has ever shown he can score consistently in the Premiership, if only over a couple of seasons. Playing Ferguson invites out-of-form players to take the easy option and he needs somebody able to feed off his flick-ones and lay-offs. In many respects, Beattie is probably the best equipped to do this, if he can get fit.
Bent is probably best employed as target man as he has shown little propensity for playing off a bigger striker. Beattie could potentially form a partnership with him if Bent can adapt and use his running power mainly to create space for Beattie to exploit. McFadden has had little chance to show what he can do up front but is highly unlikely to suddenly turn into a goal machine.
As for the midfield, they have simply got to pull together, give their all and hope to offer enough variety to make an impact. There is every evidence that the talent is there. It is just a case of finding the right balance and helping a few players rebuild their confidence and form.
All of this is easier said than done, but Moyes has shown his ability to rise to a challenge successfully on many occasions. It is worth remembering that when he signed Beattie he stated he was the first part of the jigsaw he was hoping to build ‘over the next couple of years’. That was eight months ago. If he needs to wait a bit longer for the right player to play with him, I think he has earned a little bit of patience from us.
Look at the amounts other managers have spent on strikers and have still not got it right. Also, some of Walter Smith’s signings: Bakayoko, anybody? Steve McClaren has spent a fortune on a variety of strikers and is still searching for the right blend. Maccarone made a scoring return last weekend, but McClaren was fortunate to be able to compensate for his £8M striker struggling for a year or two by buying Viduka, Hasselbaink and now Yakubu without even having to recoup some of that investment.
David Moyes doesn’t have that luxury and so if he spends big on a striker he has to get it right. Having spent £6M on Beattie, he is unlikely to want to waste that by bringing in somebody who won’t complement him. I get the distinct impression that if he had spent another similar amount on A N Other (striker), most of the snipers would be telling us all to give them time to gel.
It seems, according to some, he has ‘taken us as far as he can’. Which, presumably, is 4th. place. I agree. Unless he is suddenly given about £50M to spend on players and a huge guaranteed income to pay top wages, a top-3 place is probably beyond us.
Unless, of course, you accept that a top-4 place isn’t now ours by right, except in our hearts and sentimental harking back to the good old days. Unless you accept that in reality we are a middle of the road Premiership club trying to break into the upper echelons by building steadily and making progress and are currently experiencing a few growing pains.
Quite honestly, if there are Evertonians who don’t believe that David Moyes doesn’t AT THE VERY LEAST deserve time to get his players fit, bed in his new signings, use the January transfer window to make any necessary additions, and then reassess our progress in May, then I’m sorry but I think you are living in an alternate reality.
I agree that there is no room for sentiment in business, but I am amazed that there are so many Evertonians certain that David Moyes has no more to offer this football club. Yes, we have had 15 years of mediocrity, and worse, but this is all the more reason to give Moyes more time to follow through his plans. He has repeatedly shown himself to be patient in pursuit of his goals, yet it seems some Blues are willing to throw the towel in at the first sign of trouble.
Is this really what we have become? Are we really that fickle? We are about to play Dinamo Bucharest in a game that will either ease or increase the pressure on the manager and his team. Whatever happens, I will still have the same view on David Moyes as I do know.
Whether you share that view I suppose depends on how far back into the past and how far into the future you are prepared to look. At the moment, things are looking grim, just as they were for us in 2002 and 2004, and just as they were for Alan Pardew a year ago. Patience is a rare commodity in modern life in general, never mind professional football, but I think that is the very least David Moyes, and Everton deserve.
Rob Fox
©2005 ToffeeWeb
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