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The Rumour Mill

Now we seem to be safely qualified for Europe, attention will turn to the Rumour Mill, especially as our manager has declared that there will be signings with and without substantial cash involved. Every time we open a newspaper over the summer there will be false rumours galore. Speculation will of course add to the anticipation and dreams of what might be next season but it is helpful if as fans we have some idea of what's going on so we can discriminate between fact and fantasy.

In all probability, David Moyes doesn’t know who he will sign this summer apart from Messrs Carsley and Stubbs. He has a season to finish. If he doesn’t know, then neither does anyone else, including the newspapers. So what can we look forward to? A summer of surprises? Perhaps, yes but in advance we can work out the club's strategy and the number and types of acquisition the club will aim to make from the statements we have heard from Messrs Moyes, Wyness and Kenwright.

What do we need?

Moyes has twice remarked recently on the need to increase the squad to prepare for a European campaign and hopefully more FA/Carling Cup matches. Excluding loan signings (Fernandes) and youngsters (Vaughan & Victor), we have a first team squad of 19 only. He has also repeatedly commented that Victor and Vaughny will find it more difficult next season, implying that they cannot yet be considered to be Premiership players.

Of our 19 Premiership players, Wright is clearly leaving now his contract is ending. Pistone hasn’t played in the first team since August 2005. His failure to get at least a bench place in recent months suggests that he will be on his way also. Beattie and Van der Meyde can only go if a buyer is found. Moyes’s open observation of other teams strikers in recent weeks suggests that Beattie will be replaced during the summer whereas rumours of wide midfielders being ‘chased’ around Europe seem to be more about routine scouting exercises. Conclusion: Beattie goes and VdM stays unless we get lucky. So, our squad strength will be 16 plus new signings + V&V going into next September.

A squad of even very basic strength for the season ahead, will comprise 2 Goalkeepers + Ruddy, 8 Defenders, 8 Midfielders, 3 Strikers + V&V. Having regard to the ‘current’ squad of 16, this tells us that Moyes's minimum requirement is for a centre-back, a full-back, 2 midfielders and a striker.

What are the priorities?

Moyes has consistently said that his strategy is to buy one main player who improves the team each year. Due to the TV cash increase next season, we can expect to see two main signings this year. We can also be confident that these signings will add to his core 1st team – Howard, Yobo, Lescott, Neville, Cahill, Arteta, Johnson. Whilst perhaps not in the core first team, the full backs are sound and have great cover from Neville and Lescott so the priorities for our 2 main investments are another midfielder and a striker. We are likely to spend £13M+ on these two players.

How much money have we got to spend?

We’ve not had much help from Bill and Keith on this one but we have other information. First, there will be a bit of money (c £0.75M?) left from selling Davies and Kilbane and buying Tim Howard. Assuming the outstanding Rooney money wasn’t cancelled by the Neville deal and the £1.5M for Rooney's contract extension isn’t payable to us yet, we will have £0.5M to £0.65M to come from Man Utd in the summer due to their success in the Premiership/FA Cup.

We will finish between 5th and 7th next Sunday and will therefore earn more TV reward money than budgeted for (£2M - £3M). Continuing growth in sponsorship income should broadly balance downsides on other income. However, all this is small beer compared to the new TV money. The top premiership team will reputedly gain at least £20M extra per annum from next season and the bottom team will gain at least £10M. That puts Everton's business plan with a mid-table assumption at c £15M additional income.

Allowing for some increased costs for wages (eg, V&V, Turner, Arteta, Lescott) and some reduced ticket prices, this all adds up to Moyes having around £17M to spend over the summer because Kenwright always gives what he has.

How far this amount will go is difficult to assess. The fact that all premiership clubs will have lots of dosh means that prices are bound to shoot up in the summer. The tricks we need from our club are get in before the market is formed for the main buys then go for players no-one else is after, probably abroad. Every Premiership club will have cash so with the exception of Joey Barton, noone is likely to be sold by a Premiership club who is any good.

The Midfielder

The first signing many of us would like to see is of course Manu Fernandes. There is lots of observer uncertainty about what Fernandes will cost us if we buy. The Benfica Chairman announced publicly that Fernandes was worth between £8M and £12M when he hit the headlines as an 18-year-old. Since then, he has had injuries and dropped back out of the Portugal team but they found a mug at Portsmouth to offer £12M (source Harry Redknapp). So, his actual price is likely to be near £8M. Moyes also commented in early February that the Everton Board wouldn’t have signed him if he wasn’t affordable.

The recent Daily Post coverage indicating he is unlikely to stay isn’t a surprise having watched Fernandes's interaction with current and former teammates before and after the game on Saturday. He appeared to be a Portsmouth player. I think there are two possible scenarios here:

• First, we couldn’t set a fee for a permanent signing due to league rules but there was a gentlemen's agreement(!) which Everton are trying to ensure is realised in the next few weeks (£8M might sound a snip by August).
• Alternatively, Fernandes doesn’t want to stay.

The other thing to say about midfielders is that we don’t appear to be scouting this main buy. Moyes must have his list of well known (to Everton) players we are confident will add quality to our midfield.

The Striker

In contrast to the main midfielder situation, Moyes has been linked with every half-decent striker outside the Premiership in recent months and he has definitely been watching a few. Because prices will escalate, his budget is unlikely to stand the purchases of both Fernandes and our inevitable favourite, big blue David Nugent. Nugent is now an international in great demand so we can expect his price to exceed £6.5M and possibly end up around AJ’s price. Moyes is clearly considering buying a striker from the lower divisions but might be forced into Europe where his record is less successful. Having said that, most strikers will be affordable if we don’t buy Fernandes.

The Rest

With Alan Stubbs entering probably his last season in the Premiership, a young squad centre-back is as much a priority for Moyes as the bigger signings above. He lost out on Khalid Bougherra at £2.5M in January and we can expect a similar type of investment in the summer. Again, the absence of rumours suggests that the shortlist is already sorted.

David Moyes has always gone for young players and we can be confident that the above three signings will be up to 25, 26 at a push and 27 if it all goes a bit pearshaped. With the remaining two planned signings, he has signalled a change of strategy with the decision to get ‘bargain basement’ players so maybe he will break with his young purchases only approach if he has to, especially if they have Euro experience.

These two signings are likely to happen later in the summer. If we are in the last week in August and nothing's happened and Wigan are in the Championship, watch out for one K Kilbane to be signed on August 31!

So, in summary, we will sign :

• Midfielder to improve the first eleven Striker to improve the first eleven
• Promising centre back to cover Yobo/Lescott
• Two squad players (most likely a left midfielder and a right back)
• The midfielder and striker are likely to cost £13m+
• If Fernandes goes, Nugent's signing looks a strong possibility
• Players won't be available from other Premiership clubs

Everything else is pure speculation!

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