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Look What Statto says!

Are you familiar with Statto? (www.statto.com) It’s always worth a look. Instead of pundit's views and our hopes and fears, it gives a numerical view of performances; past facts, current trends, projected outcomes. It’s for punters rather than pundits.

So why draw attention to it now? Well, before the season started it had us finishing fifth this year. I played it down because, of course, we had a good end to the season and everyone knows we can’t win a game at the start of the season (correction — Statto doesn’t know this).

Now it has us finishing equal fourth. Although our ‘Rating’ (current performance measure) is still fifth, we are close enough to Arsenal for the 2-point gap to balance the rating. And Statto really does know the merit of beating Man Utd, so we have jumped in expectation of final points after that.

Meanwhile, guess how many points Statto think we will finish ahead of the RS? You got it — 16. This is because we have the fastest rising rating and they have the opposite.

The table doesn’t render properly here so visit statto.com/football/odds/ratings, though it will probably have changed a bit by the time you see it. Every result swings the numbers a touch. Before Chelsea-Reading we were clear fourth!

Peter Hall, Wirral Posted 24/08/2012 at 20:36:22

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Reader Comments

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Shaun Brennan
971 Posted 24/08/2012 at 23:53:06

Peter is there any chance you work for statto?

Derek Thomas
995 Posted 25/08/2012 at 03:31:39

'I never trust any statistic I didn't make up myself' - Sir Winston Churchill...you can't get a pattern from one game. Wait for 10 games and see where we are...and I bet it will be exactly where we are, stats only show you where you could or maybe should be. This is Everton remember. Injuries, bad bounce, reffs, no wins at the old sky 4 in 10 yrs, RS selling their Shankly red souls to himself etc etc...don't invite Mr Murphy. It's only one game albeit a very good one, lets just play them ( and try to win them not try not to lose them ) one at a time.

Peter Hall
041 Posted 25/08/2012 at 10:38:42

No I don't work for Statto! And Derek the stats or on a running basis so pick yup from last season as if it were continuous, so it's only marginally affected by the most recent game.

Sam Hoare
044 Posted 25/08/2012 at 11:04:40

Liverpool will be better this season no doubt. Just signed sahin on loan who I rate extremely highly. Also sunderland have just splashed in the region of 22m on fletcher and Adam Johnson.

I would expect spurs to splash cash on at least one more high profile signing and arsenal too.

Even west ham have spent 20 m on just Jarvis and Maiga.

Going to be a competitive season.

Ajay Gopal
045 Posted 25/08/2012 at 11:11:22

Well put, Derek (#995). It was a great result last week, but in the end it was only 3 points out of 114 up for grabs. Let us come back after 10-12 games and then see where we are.

James Morgan
057 Posted 25/08/2012 at 12:21:05

You can make stats to suit almost any argument.
For example, imagine Gibson makes a poor pass to Fellaini who stretches to get a touch but it goes astray to the opposition. That would give Gibson a 'successful' pass according to stats, even though everyone could see it was a poor one.
I'm not bashing all stats but some don't tell the whole story.

Derek Thomas
062 Posted 25/08/2012 at 12:25:16

Peter 041: I won't and would advise you not to get to sucked in by what happened last season and try to finagle it into having too much relevance as to what will ( might ) happen this season.

That was then and this is now.

Three teams out of twenty aren't here and three new ones are. Some teams don't have the same coaches and most others, even us have both lost and gained players. Last seasons games were played in a different order, day month. We have very recently seen how much the night game under lights affects things.

John Moores would not have made his ( and our ) millions if it was that predictable.

Casinos have a term for those who love statisics...losers...with good reason.

It don't work like that.

10 games, then we might see ( at the most ) a trend

Ernie Baywood
257 Posted 26/08/2012 at 07:17:26

The fact is that this an objective view of a team's prospects.

Objective views are always flawed, but not by bias or uninformed opinion.

It's interesting, with all appropriate disclaimers.

Ken Buckley
286 Posted 26/08/2012 at 09:57:42

Just think if we all knew how to predict results and therefor league placings we would all be winning the fixed odds coupons every week... Is there a stat for this happening?

John Ford
288 Posted 26/08/2012 at 10:13:53

Given that we finished strongly the season before last... and the season before that, I'm assuming Statto would have again predicted similarly high league placings for each following season? Oops.

I'm with old Winston.

Jay Harris
394 Posted 26/08/2012 at 20:06:02

I prefer to let my eyes do the conclusions but I have to say we have started the season well with two difficult fixtures won.

Let's see if we're still unbeaten affter 10 games then we can all start to believe.

I feel the wave of optimism by the supporters is carrying over to the players and there is now a united front with the supporters believing in the players and vice versa.

Hopefully GP will no longer resemble a morgue and the players confidence will remain high.

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