Ahead of the game

Being halfway towards the 40-point safety mark with only a third of the season gone, we Evertonians are only just getting used to the idea that the word relegation could be consigned to the annals of recent history for the foreseeable future.  We shouldn't, by rights of that recent history, even be thinking about Europe in any capacity apart, maybe, from where to go on next summer's holidays.

But, thanks to five league wins in the last six games and our steady rise to fourth in the table, perhaps we can allow ourselves just a few moments to wonder what it would be like to qualify for European competition for the first time in seven years and to field a team in that cash-rich arena that is capable of making it past the second hurdle (unlike our last foray in the Cup Winners' Cup under Joe Royle following the 1995 FA Cup triumph).

Such is the transformation that we have undergone under David Moyes's stewardship.

Let's be honest.  The Champions League — a world hitherto so far away that we have been jealously mocking and ridiculing it for years — is probably out of our reach.  To believe that in 9 months we might have gone from a team apparently destined to disappear through the trapdoor to the Nationwide League to one capable of finishing in the top four would, your head tells you, be getting ahead of ourselves.  Our financial realties are such that we don't have the depth of squad, resilience or longevity that the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United and, unfortunately, Liverpool, do. We know that we won't be finishing ahead of any of these three teams this season and, yes, while Chelsea have historically been highly unpredictable under their Italian managers, the pretenders from Stamford Bridge would be a good bet to fill the fourth place.

The exciting thing from Everton's perspective is that there really isn't one team that stands out as being able to crack that top four; any one from ourselves, Tottenham, Blackburn, Newcastle, Leeds and even Middlesbrough could capitalise if any of the big four stumble.  And of that clutch of teams, Everton is the form side at the moment.  If the next two thirds of the season continue in the vein of the third just gone, David Moyes and Everton will have every opportunity to make a break to steal one of those four Champions League spots and create one of the great fairytale stories in English football history.

It's still hard to say whether the team can continue the current run of form, especially when you consider how recently they threw away points at Southampton, Aston Villa and Manchester City and against Birmingham and Tottenham at home.  Those experiences may either prove to be warm-ups for a sustained assault on the top five of the Premiership or the hallmarks of an Everton side that is not quite ready for talk of the Champions League.  Time will tell...

Far more realistic — and this is not the stuff of pipe dreams that it was, say, at the end of last season — is UEFA Cup qualification through a top-seven finish or winning one of the domestic Cup competitions.  Recent performances have perhaps raised the bar of expectation to the point where, if Moyes does not steer his plucky side into Europe this season, the campaign might always be seen as an opportunity missed to make an unexpected leap in the timeline of recovery.

The recent restructuring of the club's debt and the possibility of the Kings Dock were designed at bringing the club closer to the European stage.  If Moyes can get Everton into Europe on a shoe-string budget before the stadium issue is decided, he could slash three years off the five-year plan and start a much-needed influx of revenue from European participation.  The increase in prize money from finishing as much as ten places higher in the Premiership than last season would also come in handy!

A hard-headed realist would preach caution against any talk of Europe — not because of Everton's frustrating knack of nipping the shoots of recovery in the bud, but because of the harsh realities of the Premier League marathon.  Moyes does not have a massive squad at his disposal and the harsh winter months have not yet begun to bite.  A few injuries and suspensions to key players could take a heavy toll on his team's ability to sustain their current run of results.  Also, an unnecessarily cynical analysis of the recent run of wins might suggest that the Blues were lucky to beat Charlton, and might not have toppled Arsenal or Leeds were it not for a certain Master Rooney...

Two things operate in his favour, however: Firstly, the options he has from the youth setup (including Rooney, Clarke, Osman and McLeod) and, secondly, the fact that the aforementioned clutch of clubs could be in the same situation given that all, apart from Leeds, have been struggling like Everton in recent seasons and don't have the ability to rotate their squad like the Europe regulars.

The period between now and Christmas will provide a clear indication of just how far Everton can go this season.  Between now and the Boxing Day match-up with Birmingham City, Moyes's side take on rivals Blackburn Rovers both home and away, talented but unpredictable Newcastle away, 3rd-placed Chelsea at home, and current leaders Liverpool away.  Throw in the home match with West Bromwich Albion, where the burden of expectation for victory will be high, the cup tie at Stramford Bridge and, if they win there, the added distraction of another League Cup match on December 18th, and you have a real test of Everton's resilience.

Where Moyes's team find themselves after the Anfield derby on December 23rd will be a very interesting indicator of the club's fortunes come May.  For now, though, with the team on the crest of a wave, dreams of Europe and finally banishing the tag of bottom feeder are at the forefront of our minds.  And it's nice just to be able to say that.

Lyndon Lloyd

©2002 ToffeeWeb, 11 November 2002