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Phil Roberts

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics – Part 3
4 March 2005

• Dove è il San Siro? 
• Wo der Olympische Stadium ist? 
• ?Donde está el Bernabeu¿
• Ou est le Stade Francais? 

Just a few of the phrases we are likely to need later this year.  In summary, it is looking good!

As the follow up Steve Flanagan’s piece on Everton’s comparative results, here is the full table for all the teams.  The last two months have not been Everton’s best, but we all know that.  After half the season, we were 19 points ahead of our performances last season, but the stutters post Christmas saw us match last year’s dismal results until last Saturday’s great performance at Villa and take us to plus 21.  So where does that leave us?

Projecting to the ends of the season, in 5th, behind our neighbours on goal difference.  However, in each of the last two seasons, they have got 17 points from the 11 fixtures they still have left.  So we can assume they will do the same this year and therefore finish on 60 points.  On the other hand, last year we only took 9 points from the 10 fixtures we still have and 17 in the previous year when we came 7th, so the chance of Everton finishing in 5th is getting less and less likely.  As Steve Flanagan points out, doing as well as 2002-03, we could end up with 68 points.

As for the title, relegation, and other European spots, things are starting to get more straight-forward.  Chelsea have maintained the improvement they had at Christmas; United have only added 3 points and with Arsenal slipping a further 2; the title looks like it will be a team in Blue shirts.  But doesn’t that always happen when the year ends with a 5?  However, watch for United; defeats by Southampton, Palace (Wolves) and Fulham at home last year will surely see them picking up 9 more points... so at least 86 points to finish, probably coming in 2nd.  Amazingly, we could be 4th, nearly 20 points behind the team in 3rd.  Not an exciting prospect for the future of the Premiership...

At the bottom, it is 3 from 5 and really Norwich and West Brom look like being 2 of them.  Seems lightning only struck once with Super Kev.  Palace seem to be coming good at the end, Southampton struggling and Blackburn are hopefully down to 35 points after Sunday night.  However I think it will be Southampton.

So who are also going to be in Europe?  Assuming it is not a United v Arsenal Cup Final, then there are two spaces left.  It does seem to be between our neighbours, Boro and Spurs.  I think it is likely to be the first two but, if they are at +3 points yet again, Boro could just sneak 5th.  Wouldn’t that be the icing on the cake!

Phil  Roberts

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