Premier League Squads: We will finish 12th

The season is about to begin and squads are taking shape.  Based on where we are now in the transfer window, I predict we will overperform again and finish 12th.  The peak would probably be 10th place in the final Premier League table.  Significantly though, for the first time since Moshiri turned off the tap in 2021, we don’t look set for a relegation battle – and we could even go deep into the cup competitions (and who knows even win a trophy). 

A few things can change in the remaining few weeks of the transfer window but, realistically, no game changers (at least for the short term better).

Here’s why…

Our Squad

The extreme relegation-level cost-cutting since 2021 is laid bare by the current squad – with only Keane surviving as the remaining shit player from a short but disastrous spell where we spent large sums on mediocre, deteriorating players.  A few home truths:

·    We are independently rated by Transfermarkt as having the 16th best squad (5th worst) in the Premier League.

·    In the whole squad, we now have only 3 players who cost more than £20M (Pickford, Beto and Keane).  Mykolenko and Doucoure are just a touch under in £s rather than Euros.

·     In the starting XI, we often have 5 players who cost less than £5M (Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Gueye, Calvert-Lewin and Coleman).

·   We have a net spend of €102M since Moshiri pulled the plug – meaning negative investment of €102M.  That is the absolute stand-out by a mile position in the Premier League. For context, Ipswich have invested €180M more than us in their playing squad over the same period.  And West Ham, Bournemouth and Forest have invested around €350M more than us in the same period. Astonishing that we aren’t relegated and bust, but there you go.

Fortunately, we have, in Dyche, a coach who is capable of getting more than the sum of its parts from a squad – and the retention at this point of Branthwaite and Calvert-Lewin means we have two important players, hopefully for another season. We also have some promising attacking players in Ndiaye, Lindstrøm and a maturing Chermiti. O’Brien looks like a good purchase too.

But the quality or not of our squad is only meaningful in context.  So let’s look at the competition by reference to Transfermarkt’s independent assessment of squad value (a pretty decent proxy for squad depth and quality) and 3-year net spend (which indicates whether a squad is being built or dismantled).  I haven’t done wage bill which some will grumble about because that just tells you whether a club is spending wisely or not. Sadly, as we know all too well, it doesn’t give any indication of quality.

Champions League favourites (places 1 to 4)

These are the very top teams with squad values of €1B or thereabouts:

Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool

We can beat these teams in a one-off game (including cup games) but have absolutely no chance whatsoever of attaining a Champions League place. It is impossible. No point looking into this further.

Outside bets for the Champions League (places 5 to 8)

These are teams with squads valued at €650M to €800M – being:

Spurs, Man Utd, Aston Villa, Newcastle Utd

Much the same as for the Top 4 so no point looking in detail. One of these teams would have to experience an absolute disaster for us to finish above them. But we could give them a hell of a game in a one-off match.

European contenders (places 9 to 13)

These are teams with squads valued at €400M to €500M, being:

Brighton, Crystal Palace, West Ham Utd, Brentford and Wolves

These teams should really be unattainable given the disparity in investment – but each has flaws:

·    Brighton (value €578M / 3-year net spend +€67M): very large (Champions League sized) squad with undoubted quality and an extraordinary share of the world’s best U20 players.  They managed this even with heavy selling which is very impressive.  Despite their heavy selling, they have invested about €35M more than us in the playing squad over the past few years. They have taken a huge risk with 31-year-old Fabian Hurzeler as manager. Could be a tricky season.

·    West Ham Utd (value €454M / 3-year net spend –€245M): replaced the seriously over-spending / under-achieving Moyes with Lopetegui. He did well at Wolves but only after a spending spree. Not clear whether he’s actually any good.

·    Crystal Palace (value €437M / 3 year net spend –€171M): They have lost Olise (although they already have Brazilian Franca who might step in and Sarr is a decent player too). Kamada is a good signing and gives them a nice, balanced-looking squad. Glasner did very well last season but remains an unknown quantity. They should be fine.

·   Brentford (value €419M / 3-year net spend –€145M): Now seem to have passed their peak under Thomas Frank and are struggling to stand still despite fairly heavy sustained spending.  They have started to underperform their wage bill and level of investment which doesn’t bode well. Losing Ivan Toney will not help (assuming he does leave) unless €33m Brazilian Thiago can hit the ground running.

·     Wolves (value €419M / 3-year net spend minus €25M): Sensible manager, and with some good players across a patchy squad. Need €50M striker Cunha to deliver more than he has been doing. It’s a big test for O’Neil especially if they get off to a bad start.

One or two of these teams could underperform, perhaps seriously. It is even possible that one of these teams could implode and go down.

Non-entities / relegation possibles (places 14 to 17)

These are teams with squads valued at €300M to €400M — this is our peer group:

·    Bournemouth (value €383M / 3-year net spend –€250M): Sensible manager, good squad. Not lost any stars linked with Champions League clubs (Solanke, Kerkez and Zabarnyi) but not done any serious recruitment either (although teenage centre-back Huijsen from Juventus could be a star in the making). Again, should not find themselves in too much serious relegation trouble.

·   Nottingham Forest (value €366M / 3-year net spend –€234M): Sensible manager, good squad. Will probably hover around the upper reaches of the bottom half. Their squad is also settling down a bit after the ridiculous spending spree that saw them hit by PSR fines.  Should not find themselves in too much serious relegation trouble.

·     Everton (value €323M / 3-year net spend +€102M): Form your own views…b ut you know mine.

·    Fulham (value €278M / 3-year net spend –€70M): Likeable manager in Silva but they’ve lost Willian, Adarabioyo, Decordova-Reid and Palhinha and the squad looks thin and very patchy. Silva, as we know, can shit himself if the going gets tough. Rowe-Smith will certainly help but they need a bit of steel to go with the footballers already on their books. They could have a hard season ahead. Probably the most serious relegation candidate from this category.

Relegation likelihoods (places 18 to 20 inclusive)

These are the promoted clubs with squads valued at no more than €250M. 

·    Southampton (value €231M / 3-year net spend minus –€35M): Some very good players, especially in defence, along with exciting attacking players who have now had time to settle in like Alcaraz, Sulemana and Mara. Inexperienced manager in Martin and limited squad overall and likely to struggle.

·    Leicester City (value €191M / 3-yr net spend +€28M): Cooper has inherited a ball-playing team built by Rodgers and Maresca but lost the driving force in Dewsbury-Hall. Very mediocre set of players and it’s hard to see where the goals will come from. Likely to struggle although Steve Cooper is good at motivating in adversity and they might give it a good go.

·     Ipswich Town (value €91M / 3-year net spend –€80M): excellent but untested young manager and they have made some very shrewd signings in Greaves, Hutchison, Johnson and Delap – to go with other quality players like LB Lief Davis.  Will be a footballing version of Luton, giving it a good go but likely to fall short because of lack of quality and defensive frailty.

It is likely that all three of these clubs will go back down – probably fighting it out with Fulham and AN Other (Brentford?).

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