No Selling Wayne
Christiano Multesanti of London tells us there�s no selling Wayne.  He gives us a realistic calculation of Wayne�s market value (�70 million!) and says that if the club show some resolve and keep him 4 years we will actually accumulate �100M, read on...

23 June 2004

After some clear thinking away from the media headlines, I thought I should explain exactly why Everton have to hold on to Wayne Rooney for another 3 to 5 years.  I work in football and am a lifelong EFC fan so I owe it to fellow Toffeemen and the Everton FC board (I hope they read this) to get to grips with the following scenario...  I have calculated that if we aim to hold on to Wayne for approximately 4 years the club will be in a very healthy state and able to cash in to the tune of �100M, let me explain:

Firstly here�s a layman�s guide to what the club loses financially in the next 5 years without Wayne:-

Wayne, directly and indirectly, has the potential to bring into the club �9.63�M a season.  I have not tried to factor Pay-Par-View game revenues that would also reduce if Wayne left, nor the incremental loss in refreshment sales and non-Rooney merchandise at the ground due to drop in attendances, so these are very conservative, robust, defendable figures from reasonable guestimates; if we re-sign Wayne in July on a 5-year deal, then the club can be looking at �48.15M in income over the 5-year period.  Without Wayne, we effectively lose this money.

So our material value on WR is exactly up to the �hype value� we are reading in the papers and on our web site.  Not exactly hype then, is it? Beyond the direct financial loss, we would suffer an indescribable emotional hit, we would lose an incredibly gifted local lad which every successful team needs for its soul and spirit � we cannot expect Hibbert or Osman to fill WR�s boots (nor can the most optimistic Evertonian expect one of his brothers to have the same god-given talent!).

Even worse, the biggest and likeliest repercussion could be relegation; even if some of the proposed windfall goes towards good new signings (I�d say �25M will go on new players, because don�t forget we need to build or improve a ground, build the new training facility and we owe the bank crippling interest payments), the new players may, for whatever reason, fail to deliver in front of a Goodison crowd still silenced by the departure of its adopted son.  Note: we certainly won�t be in the market for the world�s best... we�re talking five players at �5M.

All things considered, I believe the basic market value of Wayne Rooney is therefore the direct commercial value �50M + �20M risk (monies lost if we are relegated) = �70M.  This is no way to think but it is the way football goes: big teams do go down and if that ever happened to us, with our debt position it would be the end.  So if there is a bid it should only be considered at �70M; it would be hard to turn down but if we did sell him that is the price it has to be.  Moyes has not said he would accept �50M, what he has said is that there is a price on everyone and a point where you cannot ignore an offer, I think the club must also know it to be around �70M.

But we must keep Wayne, and keep extending a contract each year as Man U do with their stars so as to retain optimum value; my estimates are conservative and with Trevor Birch maximising commercial revenues the �50M will come into the club within a 3- to 5-year period.  At that time, Everton will have its global image back, a circle of corporate sponsors that know and appreciate the club, a fanbase that saw its rightful amount of WR in an Everton shirt and a future with a purpose.  He will leave at approximately 22 years of age to a club like Real Madrid or Chelsea, true those clubs will see his best years but when he does go, we�ll get the �50M from his sale on top of the �50M he earnt the club during his stay!  It�s a straight-forward �100 million strategy; Blue Bill and Birchy � I hope its yours too?!

Christiano Multesanti

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