With five games of the season to go, at the time of writing, Everton sit in 19th place and for the first time since 1951 face the prospect of relegation from the top flightof English Football. In that year, relegation was sealed on the final day with a 6-0 loss to Sheffield Wednesday amid claims we “sleep-walked” into our fate.

With the advent of the Premier League and the resulting financial chasm, relegation today is a hugely significant affair, especially for a club ever-present in the Premier League. A club with a cost base more akin to the Champions League than the Championship.

As is commonly known, revenues fall significantly when dropping into the Championship. The obvious loss of broadcast revenues is compounded by a reduction in sponsorship, commercial and usually matchday revenues.

To mitigate against that loss of revenue, relegated clubs receive parachute payments from the Premier League, more of which below.

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Tougher regulatory environment – lower loss limits compounded by lower revenues

The regulatory environment in the Championship is much stricter and more austere than the Premier League. As against the £105 million loss limit over three years under Premier League profitability and sustainability rules, a club dropping from the Premier League to the Championship would have an aggregate 3-year upper loss limit of £83 million at the end of the first season, £61 million in the second, and £39 million in the third.

Therefore, a club losing money heavily in the Premier League in previous years prior to relegation, would have to see an enormous improvement in its finances despite the increasing reductions in revenue over time. As you will see from calculations further down the article, parachute payments reduce after the first year.

The EFL (English Football League) are also much less forgiving to clubs in breach or potential breach of financial regulations. Therefore, the big question finance directors and boards of relegated clubs must ask themselves is: Can the reduction in revenue be offset by a corresponding reduction in costs?

The evidence suggests not. In the table below, we look at each relegated club back to 2012-13. The table looks at (i) the reduction in revenues between the last year in the Premier League and the first year in the Championship, and (ii) the reduction in wage costs between the two years.

Given wage costs are the biggest element of a club’s cost base, in order to reduce losses or build a buffer for future losses, you might expect wage costs to fall by a larger amount than the reduction in revenues. The reality is that that rarely happens. The reductions in revenues are (with only a couple of exceptions) greater than the reduction in wage costs. 

The table shows the reduction in turnover in cash terms and as a percentage of the previous turnover. It also shows the reduction in wages. If the wages fall by less than the fall in turnover, then – assuming other costs remain constant – losses must increase (even before taking into account reductions in commercial and matchday incomes).

There is obviously the impact of Covid which has not been accounted for in 2020 and 2021 but the evidence is clear over a decade – clubs do not reduce their wage costs by the corresponding reduction in income.

Why? Some of it will be contractual – players deciding to stay at a relegated club in the absence of a relegation clause or a better offer from another club. Jack Rodwell at Sunderland is the most exceptional example of this. But it’s also because relegated clubs will take a gamble – they will take advantage of their income advantage over the incumbents in the hope of bouncing back into the Premier League the following season. 23 out of 82 relegated clubs have managed to bounce straight back.

The need to get out of the Championship is very apparent – given parachute payments decrease after year 1 and, as we can see, costs don’t fall as quickly.

What happens to Everton should we get relegated?

The latest available figures shows Everton’s Premier League broadcasting revenues for 2021-22 as follows:

  • Equal share UK revenues – £31.81 million
  • Facility fees (based on appearances) – £19.41 million
  • Merit fees UK (based on league position) – £8.44 million
  • Equal share international revenues – £48.9 million
  • Merit fees international (based on league position) – £1.84 million
  • Total £110.39 million

Let’s assume 2022-23 are similar.

Parachute payments are calculated as a percentage of the equal share payments made to Premier League clubs. In the first year of relegation 55%, the second year 45% and the third year 20%.

Thus for Everton:

First year after relegation, parachute payment of £44.39 million – a reduction of £66 million

Second year of relegation, parachute payment of £36.32 million – a reduction of £74.07 million

Third year of relegation, parachute payment of £16.14 million – a reduction of £94.25 million

What does that mean for Everton?

We made a loss of £44.7m on turnover of £181 million in 2021-22 and that includes £67.7 million of trading profits. Wages cost £162 million.

This current year (2022-23) will see our turnover fall to around £165 million, but our wage costs have dropped by an estimated £10 million to £152 million. It is conceivable with the sale of Anthony Gordon and Moise Kean we will be approaching break even for the year. If we were to be relegated though, we would by a considerable margin have the highest turnover and highest wage bill of any previously relegated club.

With a number of contracts terminating in June 2023, there will be a natural fall in the wage costs. Player disposals (an inevitable consequence) would see wages fall further, some players may have relegation clauses, but I don’t believe this will be a significant cost saver.

Would Everton’s wage bill fall from around £150 million to below £85 million to cover the loss in broadcast revenue? Based on the evidence of previously relegated clubs, it seems unlikely. What is more, such a reduction would surely make an already threadbare squad even less competitive – unless there was a huge turn around in recruitment policy and outcomes.

We would lose money heavily in the Championship, even with very significant and unprecedented cost savings through player disposals. Bear in mind the losses of 2021-22 and possible near breakeven of 2022-23 are only achieved through player trading and with full Premier League broadcast payments.

Two issues arise from this – (i) a regulatory concern given the EFL regulations and their insistence on compliance, but (ii) and much more importantly, the ability of the club to meet its future obligations.

Let’s leave (i) and deal with (ii).

In the 2021-22 accounts the directors and auditors draw attention to the detailed notes (note 1(C), page 22 within the accounts:

Directors Report:

Auditors Report:

Notes 1. (C) contain the following

The directors were satisfied to confirm the club could meet its financial obligations for the following 12 months on the basis of existing banking facilities (described above) and a further injection from Farhad Moshiri of £70 million to fund the new stadium development and operational cashflow.

The directors have produced detailed cash flow forecasts based on 2 scenarios: (i) maintaining our Premier League status at the end of 2022-23 season; and (ii) “a severe but plausible downside” of relegation to the EFL Championship.

In the event of (ii), the club would review its cost base, trading strategy and defer discretionary spending to offset reductions in revenue.

From the notes, relegation has two significant impacts: (i) reduction in revenues (see above); and (ii) the requirement for a “material repayment” of debt (one assumes to Rights & Media Funding).

Secondly, the requirement to repay existing debt facilities – the accounts do not specify the exact amount but the covenant requires a material repayment.

The notes confirm the club is in advanced negotiations for further long-term funding and for stadium financing. However, neither are currently legally binding. And 2 months on from the signing of the accounts there is no greater certainty regarding that funding.

In addition, Farhad Moshiri has provided “a letter of support” confirming his intention to continue funding the club for the following 12 months from the date of the accounts (27 February 2023). However, it must be stressed that this does not represent a legally binding commitment and thus is not guaranteed.

The notes conclude as follows:

So what does all this mean?

Simply, if relegated, there is a significant doubt that we could continue as a going concern. In practice that means the club if not supported by the major shareholder could enter administration. There are however alternatives – it is not a given.

The club has assets – it has players. Inevitably there would be a fire sale of players, both to generate cash but also to reduce costs. It is unlikely we could enter the Championship with most of the existing squad being retained.

Moshiri could sell the club at a discounted price to new owners who would re-capitalise the business, pay off debt and continue financing the stadium construction.

Alternatively, the club could sell the stadium to an investor or property developer. The stadium has an asset value, it might be worth at least as much as it has cost to date – perhaps more than £400 million. It might be worth even more on the basis of what it would cost to construct the stadium at today’s prices. The new stadium owner would complete the construction and have Everton as its tenant.

I stress each of the above are options in the event of relegation, the calling in of debt and Moshiri’s inability or unwillingness to provide further funding – administration, whilst highlighted in the annual report and accounts, is not a given – there would be options, albeit deeply unpalatable options.

As I concluded in Part I of my analysis of the accounts, the stark reality is that the club does face an existential threat. Absurdly as an ever-present in the Premier League, as a club in receipt of £750 million of shareholder funding since 2016, as a club that has to sell its best players to have a hope of remaining compliant, we find ourselves in this position.

Moshiri has a duty (as do the directors) to protect our beloved club from the peril it faces. Changing nothing – directors, executives or ownership will see the warnings within the accounts materialise. The threat can be no clearer, nor can the solution both on and off the pitch.

We need to find the points in our last five games to stave off this stark threat. But that in itself is not enough, we need a new board, a new Chair and – given the huge peril Moshiri has driven us to – a new owner.

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Reader Comments (48)

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John Keating
1 Posted 29/04/2023 at 18:39:39
Thanks again, Paul.

Another eye-opener, however, as Moshiri and the Board appear to be blinkered to a potential nightmare scenario; I think the result will be a nightmare scenario!!!!

Barry Hesketh
2 Posted 29/04/2023 at 18:42:05
As always the only people who can actually do anything about the situation are the players, can they just step up to the plate for the final five matches, to at least give us a chance to escape?
Barry McNally
3 Posted 29/04/2023 at 18:47:31
I'm afraid to read this article.
Colin Glassar
4 Posted 29/04/2023 at 19:37:23
Nightmare scenario:

1) Moshiri sells the stadium to a developer.
2) Developer finishes a world-class, state-of-the-art stadium.
3) Developer sells the stadium to Liverpool.
4) Goodison Park is deemed unfit for use so LCC offer us Anfield or Kirkby industrial estate as our new home.

Now that's a fucking nightmare scenario.

Joe McMahon
5 Posted 29/04/2023 at 19:50:34
Colin, it did cross my mind also a few months ago, but the Reds will want/need a much bigger capacity and its too late to change that from the 53k now.
Peter Carpenter
6 Posted 29/04/2023 at 19:58:48
I will take a stiff drink or two and then read this.
David Vaughan
7 Posted 29/04/2023 at 20:24:35
I've said it before. If Moshiri doesn't separate the new stadium from Everton FC and Everton FC go into administration... Liverpool could buy Everton to acquire the ground and simply dispose of the Everton brand – club, lock stock and barrel.

Anfield and Goodison no more, 1892 avenged.

Dystopia. And possible.

Paul Hewitt
8 Posted 29/04/2023 at 20:29:25
Why do people think that that lot over the park would buy the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock?

They're going to have a 62,000-seater stadium next season.

Anthony A Hughes
9 Posted 29/04/2023 at 20:33:42
We've had posters on here saying relegation wouldn't be so bad and that we could reset and start again.
I think the above article knocks that on the head.
Colin Glassar
10 Posted 29/04/2023 at 20:42:31
Okay then, Tranmere to buy the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock.
Peter Carpenter
11 Posted 29/04/2023 at 20:49:20
Fuck. I just read it. Another drink.
David Vaughan
12 Posted 29/04/2023 at 21:46:33
Paul @8 Could be quite a home for Liverpool Reserves &/or Liverpool Women!???
Jerome Shields
13 Posted 29/04/2023 at 21:52:04
They have to survive in the Premier League. But it appears the Board is prepared to stand idly by and the Owner is trying to sell what he can.

Hope Dyche can save the day.

Stu Darlington
14 Posted 29/04/2023 at 22:16:40
Shit, Paul, this is dire indeed. Even the lifelines are scary.

Looks like the Everton we've all known and loved over the years is going to be changed beyond all recognition, thanks to a useless bunch of tossers who refuse to accept responsibility for their incompetence over the years and try to deflect any blame onto the supporters.

Ian Riley
15 Posted 29/04/2023 at 23:23:05
Dark reality is relegation might mean our future in serious doubt. The lottery win was meant to make it all better.

Staying in the Championship may be an achievement for a few years if we go down. Players will go and have to go to cut the wage bill considerably. There is no quick fix and whoever the manager is must have our full support.

To the players: It's up to you now to get points. Still hope and a chance.

John Raftery
16 Posted 29/04/2023 at 23:29:32
With the best will in the world, I am unclear what a new Board or Owner will be able to do to get the club back on track if we are relegated.

Selling the few players other clubs might be interested in, not renewing expired contracts, and promoting Under-21 players on rock-bottom wages are obvious measures. But beyond that?

Barry Rathbone
17 Posted 29/04/2023 at 00:11:13
Fortunately there seems no shortage of people with loads of money looking for a vanity project in football.

We may be utter shite but the attraction of the name will be enough for some poor sap to buy us dreaming he can get it right. The idea of basking in adoration and the glory of redemption is the last bauble in the overflowing jewellery box of the ultra wealthy.

We won't vanish – we will be "reimagined" in the current vernacular.

The actor lad at Wrexham is after another club for around a billion.

Paul Roderick
18 Posted 30/04/2023 at 02:12:32
“The club has assets – it has players. Inevitably there would be a fire sale of players, both to generate cash but also to reduce costs. It is unlikely we could enter the Championship with most of the existing squad being retained.”

Every cloud!!!!

Kieran Kinsella
19 Posted 30/04/2023 at 02:54:10
Paul,

Unfortunately, the only ones likely to go are the ones we want to keep, either based on ability or potential.

So basically Pickford, Onana and Branthwaite. Good luck shifting the rest.

Pete Clarke
20 Posted 30/04/2023 at 05:16:07
Amazing amount of information and figures put out by you, Paul, so hats off for scaring most of us to death. Just doing the annual tax returns of a small business is difficult enough so I'll stick to the football side of things.

Liverpool will not leave Anfield unless it's their own plan and in a location that would somehow trump ours. Can't see that happening for a few years yet.

There will be people interested in buying us right now as it is still a huge attraction with football in England and the stadium gives us the edge for potential buyers. I just hope we are purchased by sports-minded people who have a strong background in building or rebuilding a club. Hopefully a clear buy-out so Moshiri is gone along with Teary Eyes.

Still being in the Premier League would also help bring on a buy-out but that is now down to Sean Dyche to make the necessary changes in the team and tactics to give us a chance. Time for him to show us exactly why we brought him in.

I've sort of accepted relegation so, if it does happen, I will still not fully comprehend it until first it is confirmed, we go Into mourning about it all, the fixtures come out for next season in the Championship, and we're playing at home to the likes of Rotherham.

Having said that, there are plenty of clubs down there who were regulars in the top flight when I was a kid so maybe it won't be all that bad.

Alan J Thompson
21 Posted 30/04/2023 at 05:34:41
No, we are not relegated yet but, just in case, provision has to be made which should not be a pre-season exercise after a good holiday.

Obviously money will be raised by the transfer out of Pickford, Onana and Calvert-Lewin, which other clubs may find of most interest, and there may be one or two others at a lot lower prices. Contracts that expire this season could possibly be renegotiated down or those players just allowed to leave their futures in their agents' hands. Others may have to be called together and be asked to take pay reductions or cancel their contracts by mutual consent or face the possible (probable?) future prospect of the club going out of, at least, full-time professional existence, the lose-lose situation.

Messrs Ingles and Thelwell should, now, be drawing up plans for the worst case scenario for consideration by, unfortunately, the people who got us into this mess, or best case, the future new owners, preferably of a Premier League club.

Tony Everan
22 Posted 30/04/2023 at 07:10:17
Thank's for the article, Paul. The inescapable reality has to be faced.

I think whatever happens, up or down, we need the reset. Things can't go on as they are, Kenwright's era is over. The club needs a new start, it needs unity and it needs proper professional foundations so that this change can progress the club incrementally season after season on all fronts.

As stated in your alternatives:

“Moshiri could sell the club at a discounted price to new owners who would re-capitalise the business, pay off debt and continue financing the stadium construction.”

I think this is by far the best outcome now. Moshiri selling to new owners who appoint a new board. One with knowledge and expertise to take the club forward. Even a model like Jim Ratcliffe is proposing to Man Utd would do, where the takeover consortium takes a controlling stake but leaves Mr Moshiri as a significant shareholder would be a good outcome.

Mr Moshiri is not a charity. He will want the best possible return on his investments. I think he has to consider the bigger picture here though. A well run and progressive Everton will be worth a lot more than a poorly run basket-case club under his own failing direction.

He needs to seriously consider sensible but discounted offers from prospective professional investors. It may be at first glance financially unpalatable to him (and Mr Usmanov). But in the longer term, such a deal will be the most profitable and the best available to him, a potential win-win for all parties. Ultimately and essentially for us, the custodians of the club's heart and soul, the forever loyal Everton fans.

John Raftery
23 Posted 30/04/2023 at 11:14:23
Fan loyalty is not something which can be taken for granted in regard to a failing club. It will be interesting to see what happens to attendances. They will obviously hold up for the first season with season ticket renewals over 30,000.

After that the incentive of a seat in the new stadium may keep people loyal. But what if we go into League One? We saw the other night with over half the stadium empty after 0-3 how fragile fans can be once things go badly awry.

There will be an increase in operating costs hosting four extra home fixtures with no extra season ticket money. Additional expenses will arise travelling to four extra away games unless we tell the players to hitch hike.

In our precarious financial position relegation would be an absolute disaster.

Paul Tran
24 Posted 30/04/2023 at 11:33:52
Usual good informative piece from Paul.

The only saving grace is the hope that Moshiri's desire to sell up means he gets an offer he feels he has to take.

Nothing of significance will change until this owner and board are replaced.

David Bromwell
25 Posted 30/04/2023 at 12:46:04
Thank you, Paul, your time effort and expertise are much appreciated. Sadly you paint a very bleak future and there seems little hope of anybody within the Club either willing or able to offer any hint of a solution.

For me, the most depressing aspect of our current situation concerns the development of our new stadium. Potentially this is not only a magnificent home for a Premier League club but it adds significantly to the other great buildings on the waterfront. So for the people of Liverpool and Merseyside, this beautiful new stadium is something to be proud of.

However, potential relegation, impending financial disaster and a total absence of management initiative is just too painful to contemplate. Maybe in the funny world that surrounds Premier League football clubs, someone with loads of money and importantly with some sort of business acumen will see the potential and take us on.

Three hings are critical: avoid relegation, appoint a new experienced Board, and rid ourselves of those who have created this mess.

Tony I’Anson
26 Posted 30/04/2023 at 13:13:44
"The new stadium owner would complete the construction and have Everton as its tenant".

If a sale and lease-back of the new stadium is agreed, like the Finch Farm deal with much bigger numbers, Everton FC Co Ltd would have to pay millions in rent per annum, ad infinitum, to a landlord yet to be confirmed.

Considering the annual rent on Finch Farm was circa £1.2m per annum when sold, you can only imagine stadium leasing costs having a significant impact on the cost base of EFC for many generations to come. Rent payments would also very likely be secured in escrow against any revenue streams (TV, season tickets).

Michael Lynch
27 Posted 30/04/2023 at 13:50:47
Even the doomsday scenario, while upsetting, doesn't really carry an existential threat for me.

The worst we've seen happen to a club our size in the UK is Glasgow Rangers. It took a while, but they're back at the top table after a total re-set.

Whatever league we play in, we will be pulling in crowds of well over 30,000 because I have yet to meet a season ticket holder who says "Well I'm ditching going to the match if we're relegated." A club like that will always have buyers circling, especially one with our history.

The combination of fan base and name recognition can be monetized, as a club of our size, when run properly, has a great chance of returning to the Premier League at some point.

We're football fans – illogical and loyal. So, whatever happens, the club lives on because we are the club.

We go down, I keep going. We go down again, the same applies. As long as there is an Everton playing football, I will be there.

Paul Tran
28 Posted 30/04/2023 at 14:02:28
Michael, I know a few Rangers fans who loved their run up the lower leagues, visiting new places and grounds, winning every week.

Difference was, they knew it was a matter of two inevitable immediate promotions. Not sure we can be that certain.

Ernie Baywood
29 Posted 01/05/2023 at 00:29:24
I'm with Michael Lynch on this. I completely understand that it's not very NSNO but for how long should that motto ring hollow before we accept that it doesn't apply anymore? We don't compete at the very top level. We haven't for a long time. And we won't for a long time.

If we were to go down then the likely case is that 'we' (not really we) lose lots of money, have to sell players and struggle to fund much by way of transfers and wages... well there'll still be a team and a club. We'll be in a division. We'll find a level where we win games.

In all likelihood we would fall to a level that makes sense. The Championship seems pretty logical given our recent history, brand and fanbase.

Somewhere on the way down we would be seen as a viable investment. There's only so far a club like Everton can diminish before they hold more appeal than their competitors. Someone will see a sleeping giant. They might even know what they're doing.

The Doomsday scenario probably isn't doomsday. It would be sad, so very sad, to see us fall from the level we've been at for most of our history. Of course it would.

But then this is pretty sad already isn't it? A poor team playing in a league they can't compete in, run by crooks, morons and liars prepared to attack their own supporters. Readying ourselves for another season of the same, because next season will be the same.

I'm not sure what we're trying to save.

Nathan Jones
30 Posted 02/05/2023 at 14:42:29
Anyone who thinks that the championship will be a walk in the park is going to have a rude awakening. The championship is a hard slog with some good teams. Does anyone think this team would win the championship? trust me they wouldnt. The relegated teams that tend to do well are the smaller yo yo clubs. They have a premier league / championship squad and premier league / championship budget.

As paul points out our expenditure does not fit the income in the championship, and as for a clear out, the idiots upstairs spent 500 million and made us worse, can you imagine what they would do on a reduced budget ?

Dupont Koo
31 Posted 06/05/2023 at 04:48:53
Pickford, Onana and Calvert-Lewin could bring back from the market of £130Million+: for a normally-run relegated club, that should be more than enough to get its books back in order, and reconvene with the quest to return to the Premier League.

That such amount would only represent pennies when compared to the overall amount of debts on our books is not only mind-boggling but depressing.

Should we get relegated and we subsequently dispose most of the 1st team players (replaced by U21s), what happened to Sunderland a few years ago (successive relegations into League One) could conceivably happen to us.

Kieran Kinsella
32 Posted 06/05/2023 at 05:14:11
DuPont,

How do you see that £130 million breaking down? Most media are talking about Pickford and Onana going for about £30 million each. So do you think we can get more or that someone will pay £70 million for a guy who has played a handful of games in two years?

Paul Hewitt
33 Posted 06/05/2023 at 07:27:34
Kieran @32.

Pickford is rumoured too have a £35 million release clause in his new contract. I would expect Onana to go for between £40 to 50 million. Calvert-Lewin be lucky to get £20 million for him. So no more than £100 million for them three.

Colin Glassar
34 Posted 06/05/2023 at 07:56:16
Why worry?

The EFL has just announced a new bumper TV deal which, along with parachute payments, transfers out and selling some of those lawnmowers, could see us surviving as ‘a going concern' for another season at least.

What a board, eh Bill?

Tony Abrahams
35 Posted 06/05/2023 at 08:53:37
I doubt Everton would even get £100 million, for those three players, Paul, if they drop into the Championship.

How much did we pay for Maupay? And you say we will be lucky to get £20 million for Calvert-Lewin. I'd personally expect at least a couple of Champions League teams to come in for Calvert-Lewin, especially if they think they could get him for £20 million.

If he can put his injuries behind him, and playing for a football club that has more than one recognized centre-forward would really help him on this score, then I think Dominic would be a great addition for most of the better teams in the Premier League.

To realize how badly Everton have been mismanaged, you only have to look at Dominic Calvert-Lewin – any club with only one genuine centre-forward is really asking for trouble… but I suppose this has all been said before, many, many times.

Pete Neilson
36 Posted 06/05/2023 at 09:00:15
I wonder how many of the board will be able to get new jobs on nearly £900k? Maybe they'll need to embellish their CVs.
Tony Abrahams
37 Posted 06/05/2023 at 09:01:32
Ernie@29,

I used to drive past Goodison on a regular basis and must have looked like a lunatic to the people sitting next to me at the traffic lights.

Nil Satis Nisi Optimum – used to be a big mesh banner that stretched right across the Park End roof and I used to be frothing at the mouth whenever it came into my sight.

That bastard who actually thrived off plucky little Everton, punching above their weight (absolute fucking myth) whilst vying to be best of the rest, had a flag across our stadium, which when translated actually said – Nothing But The Best Is Good Enough… 🤮

He took the piss out of us Evertonians for years, the teary-eyed bastard.

Mark Taylor
38 Posted 06/05/2023 at 09:23:59
I would say Tony 22's scenario is not only the most desirable but also the most likely. I could even imagine it applying if we stay up. I think Mosh/Usmanov only ever saw us as a profitable property play and probably a means to launder money.

I guess one could recall that old saying, to make an omelette, you have to break some eggs...

Danny Baily
39 Posted 06/05/2023 at 09:58:39
Nathan 30, it's a good point about yo-yo clubs doing well when they go down. They have the bones of a squad that can win the Championship but not quite enough to stay in the Premier League. They will also have relegation clauses built into players' contracts.

We're probably closer to that model than you think! Last season, we were a fallen giant. Not this season.

We need the board to have lined up transfers for the big earners. Quick sales of Pickford, Onana and co will be the key to rebuilding the squad this summer. The fightback begins in August.

Mark Taylor
40 Posted 06/05/2023 at 11:20:00
It's not easy to get accurate contract data but I thought I'd have a go at trying to see how Paul's reductions can be achieved. Info below is my best estimate but unlikely to be totally accurate.

We can save around £25-28M in salaries from contracts ending in 2023, including Mina, Coady, Doucoure, Coleman (unfortunately), Davies, Townsend, Vinagre and Begovic. This also assumes we sell Pickford. If we can get £40m for him, that is year 1 accounted for.

Happily, year 2 sees us get rid of some serious deadwood: Gbamin, Gomes, Alli and Iwobi. That's another £18M on top of the £24M above, so £42M. That would require a further sale(s) in the region of £30-35M, for example, Onana or Calvert-Lewin.

We don't lose that much in 2025: Gueye, Keane and Godfrey being the main ones, saving a further £12M or so, taking us close to £60M cumulative but still £30-35M short of Paul's year 3 figure of £94M So another sale, whoever remains of Calvert-Lewin and Onana.

Obviously we can change the phasing of sales, bring in more money earlier, then re-invest a proportion in players suited to the Championship. We may also be able to trade players like Tarkowski or even Holgate, if anyone is that desperate. That gives a bit more breathing space. But boy, does it look precarious.

What you are left with is a core squad around younger and/or cheaper players; Patterson, Mykolenko, Branthwaite, Garner, Simms, McNeil, Gray, Maupay (sadly) and the ones above, for as long as their contracts last. Not that I'm expecting a lot from Gomes and Gbamin and of course with Dele Alli, we are left paying £5M plus for a player we can't even play because it triggers transfer fees we definitely can't afford. Ho hum.

Ian Jones
41 Posted 06/05/2023 at 11:27:12
Danny, whatever happens this season, relegation or not, I believe any fightback needs to start as soon as the season ends, if not before. Knowing Everton, we'll start our fightback around January!
Robert Tressell
42 Posted 06/05/2023 at 11:45:52
I would rather not think too deeply about this, because I am still optimistic that we'll make it.

Mike Doyle
43 Posted 06/05/2023 at 12:49:49
Pete #36,

If Chairman Bill is correct in his assertion that Little Miss Dynamite is “the best of the best” then she will be lining up a substantial pay rise with the likes of Man City, Arsenal, Madrid & Bayern fighting for her services.

Dupont Koo
44 Posted 07/05/2023 at 02:46:29
Kieran@32, Paul@33, Tony@35

I based my estimations and reasoning as below:

Onana £50 Million+

- A 22-year-old up-and-comer (an engaging polyglot too) who will be the backbone of Belgium for years to come (some already touting him as a future Senior Captain, given his captaincy for the U21s), we can get more than that if Thelwell plays his cards right (and without Moshiri's interventions).

Pickford £40 Million+

- If as rumour suggested that it is the Spurs who have been sniffing around, this should absolutely be the bottom line to start any bidding for the England #1 who is only entering his prime (otherwise, they can enjoy their time saddling with a Hugo Lloris in further decline and an overrated backup in Fraser Forster).

Calvert-Lewin £40 Million+

- A damaged good indeed, given his injury history. But a 26-year-old England striker? The UK Premium would easily bring his price up to this level (if not beyond), let alone his age. There will be more than a handful of clubs who wouldn't mind giving him a shot (more clubs getting into the bidding, the merrier for us).

Kieran Kinsella
45 Posted 07/05/2023 at 03:42:50
DuPont,

I hope you're right but the only way I can see getting £40 million for Calvert-Lewin is on a Dele Alli type deal that may never deliver.

As far as Onana goes, Liverpool are rumored to have agreed £30 million to buy 24 year old Alexis Mac Allister, a World Cup winner and, unlike Onana, a proven rather than potential young talent.

I feel we lucked out with selling Gordon but, if we are relegated, knowing our desperation, the buyers hold all the cards – kinda like when Leeds went down and Harry Kewell left for a nominal fee.

Dupont Koo
46 Posted 07/05/2023 at 06:44:02
Kieran,

If the Red Shite think they can get Mac Allister for £30 Million (and without any future incentives) from a shrewd operator like Tony Bloom (if only we have him as our owner...I can't stop shaking my head sadly), they are out of their bloody mind. Bloom would not sanction selling a superior player in Mac Allister at a lower price than an inferior player in Cucurella, whom they happily sold for £55 Million to Chelsea last summer.

Quick tangent: Brighton just closed the deal with Watford for another target of ours in Joao Pedro (a younger Richarlison) without overpaying (£30 Million), which shows that Bloom doesn't just want to "participate" in Europe as a 1 season wonder, he really wants to be there year in and year out.

I agreed with you that the Lady Luck smiled on us on the Gordon sale (and a bit of credit, IMHO, to Thelwell for maximising the Down Payment amount).

Should we get relegated, are we going to be the Version 2.0 of the Peter Risdale era Leeds? I hope we are not but chances are high that we could go through similar situations like:

- Kewell was sold for £5 Million to the Red Shite when his valuation was £15 Million only 6 months beforehand; Worse than that, it was later found out that only £2 Million of the deal went to the club's coffer because of fees to various agents in the deal

- A young James Milner was sold to Newcastle (also for £5 Million) when other bidders with bids up to £8 Million were turned away earlier in the season

God blesses us that we keep a firm hold of Tom Cannon and not having to go through a Milner Deja Vu!

Richard Parker
47 Posted 07/05/2023 at 11:30:10
I think it's clear that any of our decent players will go this summer if we're relegated. Pickford and Onana being the main ones that would be wanted and command a decent fee. Those 2 plus the 25M in salaries offloaded should see us with a 100M swing...

We will probably also be able to offload a couple of others too, Iwobi has decent stats in a poor team and one or 2 others would go too.

With a back 4 of Patterson-Tarks-Godfrey-Mykolenko, Garner-Gana in front, Gray and McNeil out wide with a keeper and a couple of attacking players to bring in, I feel that the personnel wouldn't necessarily be a poor fit for the Championship.

Recruitment and sales would be key and that's the bit that scares me we have a proven track record of being awful at that.

John Williams
48 Posted 07/05/2023 at 12:24:47
What surely is required, is knowing the players who have a clause written in their
contracts regarding relegation.
There could be a number of them, plus a smaller transfer fee being involved.
How many supporters knew about the contract Ancellotti had ?

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