Dominic Calvert-Lewin vs Beto — Part 1

The comparison article above may not be to everyone's taste, I appreciate that. But credit to Ian for coming up with the idea and pushing it through.

However, an extensive discussion of this topic developed on one of yesterday's threads that should have been about Idrissa Gana Gueye. I am half-way through moving those posts onto this thread, so you may see some you have already read.

Thanks for your patience and understanding.

My money is on trying to re-establish the talent that Calvert-Lewin patently has and in a style of play that gives him a chance to show this talent. Saving £30-40M is a good aim.

Sorry, I don't know what has gone on with him behind the scenes and how much has been self-inflicted. David Moyes is a nice guy but he is absolutely capable of holding an irrational grudge against a player.

Say for instance, Richarlison comes back (on loan) and with Ndiaye and Alcaraz in supporting roles we could have one helluva attack. I think they all have goals in them.

Oh, and if we can get Grealish on loan….

He's not functioned well recently, he's had problems, so first try to eliminate the problems and play to his strengths which aren't on his own up front.

Dom is here and that is a very large saving on replacing him.

He's suffered from injury and the curse of the Everton striker of having to try to do it on his own with little or no support and supply. Like Beto, he can score when presented with the opportunity.

The best? No. But He is a decent striker who works for the team when fit. He just needs the team to work for him.

We are rebuilding and need to clear the deadwood out.

Personally I’d have given Ashley Young another year's contract, still seems ‘fit as a fiddle’ and could cover a number of positions. Maybe he is looking to make a few bob elsewhere before he retires.

The league's biggest underperforming striker in the last 3 years.

He just isn’t very good. No expansion needed really. Half a good season does not make a good player.

All the best I hope it works out for him elsewhere.

I'm sure in your own playing career, you can't be judged by time spent out through injury? Stats don't paint the full picture.

I don't really do stats, I just see what I see with my own eyes in front of me. And when I've watched him, Dominic gives everything,

He was unfortunate this past season when we beat Wolves 4-0, a match I attended. He scored two goals that were chalked off as own goal, which would have added to his tally.

If Dominic stays, I will be okay with that. If we part ways, I wish him well.

That’s nothing about injuries

Exhibit A:– Newcastle on Sunday!!!

Remember also that past performance and pretty vague stats are also no indication of future performance or potential. I trust the Club to do what is best on his position.

I'm hoping for better…

“Oh no, we can’t possibly let him go!!”

He’s also been injured and not had time to bed in with a Moyes team. That said, as someone who’s defended him for ages, I’ve finally run out of the patience to fully defend him anymore, simply because he’s not as clinical as you need to be at this level and for us to progress.

We finally started creating chance with Moyes at the helm and still blew too many of them, a sign we need better finishing in the squad. But if that clever goal Calvert-Lewin scored when he first came into the Moyes squad is his last for us, it will be a sign of what could’ve been.

I’m with Danny on this: I’ll be okay if he stays, wish him well if he doesn’t.

Dyche had him running around like a headless chicken; you're totally paranoid, I hope he stays.

BTW, contrary to popular myth, it was Carlo who stopped using him as a striker and asked him to play the performing seal role. Trying to stop his team's free fall by getting Pickford to by-pass the rest of the team and smash the ball in his direction.... The other managers just copied him.

Read his own confession.

We've survived, embraced even, the return of Moyes.

I'm pretty sure, if Calvert-Lewin does sign a new contract, most ToffeeWebbers will again embrace the positives.

A fit Calvert-Lewin would be worth keeping but if, for example, he was playing for another team, would we be willing to recruit him – even on a free transfer?

I watched him in person at Newcastle and have done over the course of his Everton career. I don't think he had much chance to impact the game coming on with 2 minutes of normal time remaining, Ryan.

If Dominic stays, it will be a welcome addition to the squad if he can stay fit in my humble opinion.

It looks as though the writings on the wall for Do, and not on a new contract, but people cant see it. I would bet as soon as we will bring in another striker, he won't be offered a new contract on will be on his way.

I would not bet against him going to Newcastle as a back-up for Isak now Wilson is going, or West Ham with the player preferring the former.

At the start of this season he started 20 of 22 games, played almost 1600 minutes and scored 3 goals... a goal every 528 minutes. There aren't words to describe how horrible that is for a professional striker.

He may be a fine all-around footballer, but the man simply cannot finish a chance at this point in his career. His value is as a target, hold-up and layoff forward and defender against set-pieces. If Moyes sees a use for him in that role, great... but goals aren't a part of the picture.

He has spent the last 4 years isolated up front. His one season under Ancelotti was his most productive season with 21 goals as he was told to stay in the opposition box and received good service. Since then, he had to win the header from the long-ball, chase the flick on, cross the ball and get on the end of his own cross.

David Moyes has done a good job of pushing his central attacking midfielder up closer to Beto, getting his wide men to come inside and pushing Mykolenko up to deliver crosses. It has probably been Dominic's first sight of an Everton striker getting good chances created for him those 4 years.

Robert has listed out the strikers in our range and they don't excite me much - Broja gave us an insight into what that quality of forward produces. Dominic is a highly-experienced Premier League striker with 71 goals at the top level, so if we can persuade him to stay we should.

Also, it's not like he gets better service in the box. Strictly from memory, I can only remember him scoring on two good crosses -- the cushioned volley from Young and the inswinger from Alcaraz. He just gets in behind more often than Dom, and finishes better.

I heartily agree with you -- nobody mentioned in our price category quickens my pulse either. One I haven't seen mentioned is a Villareal kid named Thierno Barry, who I saw a couple of times against Barca this year. Super aggressive, loves to attack with the ball and run in behind. I just don't know how expensive he'd be, given that his contract runs four more years.

And I still really like Chermiti, although I can't explain why since I've seen so little of him. Just a feeling.

As for Dom, I assume that if his skill set is what Moyes wants, there will be a genuine effort to re-sign him.

Beto scored those goals under Moyes. He was similarly useless under Dyche.

Eyes interpret, assimilate, and sort just like our minds do, Ryan. In other words, the eye (vision) is subjective, highly individual, partisan, and a flawed source. We have reams and reams of work on this.

Talking of sources: what is yours for this "Calvert-Lewin underperforms his expected goals. [sic] By 17 in three seasons" "stat"? I've seen you mention this a number of times now here and elsewhere. It would be interesting for us to see exactly where it comes from.

@ Mike, Beto has scored 7 goals under Moyes this season compared to 2 goals under Dyche. Last season, he scored 5 goals in total.

The manager had adapted our system to get more players forward to support Beto, provide him with service and utilised his ability to play off the last shoulder of the defender. Beto has done well and I am pleased for him.

Calvert-Lewin would also thrive in a more attacking set-up - he has proven that before. Only my point of view of course, but I expect David Moyes to select a fully-fit Dominic over a fully-fit Beto. If Dominic leaves, then Beto is the man to lead the line next season for me as we would be better spending the bigger money on other parts of the team.

Like you, I also rate Chermiti, and he would benefit a lot from a loan period next season where he plays regularly.

It's also bullshit to say that Beto is isolated up front in the same that it was often painful to see with Calvert-Lewin. Since January, Beto has had at various times and sometimes two of them at the same time, Alcaraz, Ndiaye, and Doucoure either tucked much more closely in behind or being encouraged to move in from the flanks.

I'd like to see Calvert-Lewin play for a number of games on the run under Moyes. I'm sick of the stats that certain people churn out over and over again. I wish these arithmetical parrots would take a serious class covering interpreting statistics in context or the problematic nature of gathering and analysing statistics.

We have to buy at least one striker this summer who could step in straight away as first choice. We know as much about Chermiti as he knows about the Yaifo Tribe, although I do know that he is injury prone and has scored count them zero goals in 22 appearances (the majority off the bench, to be fair), and has three more yellow cards than goals.

Beto has got some goals recently and missed a lot more. He is perfectly okay for second or third choice and tries hard but that is not enough. We have not had a top class striker since Calvert-Lewin under Carlo. We have to get a new striker over the summer. Attack is by some way the weakest of our three areas. A stronger, quicker, and more creative midfield will naturally help but that would not have stopped Beto's woeful misses in his six or is it five one-on-ones (one fella on here said that they were not misses; one, he said, hit the post and was not a miss).

Sorry Steve, 41, I just saw your post after I posted this. Completely agree with you on Beto getting much better service and sending out Chermiti on loan for at least one season. Jeez, we need a new striker.

I personally think he knew he couldn't stay under Dyche. The style of football, the ploughing of a lone furrow, he did what was asked of him but as a striker it had to be sole destroying. With a team under the cosh because it's set up not to lose, the surrendering of possession with 80% of the game played in and around your own box as a strategy.

I watched (i wish I could remember which game but I can't, sorry) the ball was played to Harrison out wide on the attack, Calvert-Lewin screaming for a cross that never came, ball played back, all the way to Pickford who launched it up to Calvert-Lewin who had 3 centre-backs on him and no Everton player within 20 yards.

That's why Dyche had to go, that's why Calvert-Lewin would have been mad to stay. Moyes arrive changes that but for Calvert-Lewin may have had enough, the abuse of his wife and it publicity was a disgrace and it may have already sealed his move away.

We are not going to get a top class replacement for him and he is free other than salary, so if there is a deal to be done and if both parties are so inclined, fair enough.

As I've said before stats depend on interpretation of everything else, goals scored and quality of chances created depend on the quality of players around you and how the team is set up. Under Dyche we were never set up to win. Same players under Moyes are, that's why we finished half way up the table this year.

I will maintain my view that recent Everton strikers have mostly cut a loan figure.

As has rightly been called out, Calvert-Lewin had his best season under Ancelotti. Beto improved when the tactics changed under Moyes. He benefited from playing with Alcaraz in support.

We've seen it work the other way. Jelavic was a revelation when he was in or around the 6-yard box sweeping goals in from close range. Then the tactics changed and he seemed to be being asked to play more like Marcus Bent and chase the channels, so he became less effective.

In my experience of playing and watching, most strikers, bar the odd freak of nature, will miss more than they score. It's just important that they get in the right position to have the opportunity.

Calvert-Lewin and Beto are by no means perfect, but they often do a job that goes unnoticed. They occupy defences freeing up others to make an impact. Watch the goal against Newcastle, there are 2 or 3 Newcastle defenders surrounding Beto as Mykolenko's cross comes in, leaving Alcaraz with a free header.

With runners like Ndiaye and Charly, our strikers will benefit a lot more than what they have done recently. Hopefully we add that additional creative spark and sort out the right side. Then things will look a lot better and our strikers, whoever they are, will benefit.

I genuinely admire those who analyse the stats, but I can only go off what I see.

Did you see this by the way?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RocX5f3lmIE

If the wages aren’t ridiculous they yes we should sign him and buy real quality in other departments. I think though his treatment by the fans over the years may persuade him to go.

My only hope in that case would be that a fit Calvert-Lewin would be given a good run by Moyes because, completely contrary to what some have said on here, the central striker has been getting much better support since January and is no longer isolated.

Steve, I really feel that we need a new striker. Up front is where we under-performed woefully last season compared to defence.

I'll leave the medical side to the professionals but confidence issues can certainly be overcome. It's a great shame he was injured for the second half of the season when he might have actually got the chance.

Beto has done well but let's not forget that he banged them in with service and when he was full of confidence. In the last quarter of the season he missed a few and his record in front of goal dipped. He missed some sitters.

People don't talk about a player as often as Mike Gaynes talks about DCL simply because they don't rate them. if you don't rate a player you say so and move on. Mike is one of a group of obsessives on this site. Who will show up time and time again and spout the same old tired Stats. He has no interest in the facts.

When DCL turned three Tottenham defenders inside out to slot what many people believe to be out goal of the season Mike, simply doubled down on his previously astonishing claim that he has never scored a great goal - Fair comment or desperate bias against somebody he simply cant take to ?

Mike's not alone. There are a group of people on this website who will never give this player credit no matter what. I include MK in that. They have suffered the brainless, lazy tactic introduce by a cant-be-arsed Carlo Ancelotti - Lets be very very clear about that - A game plan which has been adopted by every manager since.

They have disliked the tactic, but they seem to dislike the player even more - Are they blaming the player for the lazy mindless tactics which relieved all of his team mates of their responsibilities ?

Moyes, in fairness, has put a stop to this and the lovely Beto has benefited. Just as well, really because if people only saw him play under previous managers we wouldnt have been able to give him away.

DCL is probably the best there is at receiving the big boot up the park. A skill that has been abused by a succession of managers trying to hide their own and other players deficiencies. Unfortunately his critics wont accept that. I believe they actually hate him. Every half chance is called a sitter. So is every goof effort.

I go back to the Newcaste match where DCL admittedly should have scored, but the ball came back off a startled goalkeeper who knew nothing about his effort... A few minutes earlier Beto fired well wide from an almost identical position. While the outcry against C-L's powerful shot on target has been prolonged. The one Beto put into tjhe crowd has barely warranted a mention. That the reality of life for DCL at this club.

Best all round for DCL to move on, but watch him go when he does.

One of the best posts I have read on here in ages.

It's a tough one this summer with 9 players departed, Maupay's and Holgate's contracts ending, and perhaps Calvert-Lewin and Keane to also depart. Where should we prioritise the transfer fund the club has without having to sell an asset like Branthwaite?

I would go all out to agree a new contract with Dominic with a reasonable buy-out clause in it. It gives us cover and the opportunity to recoup a transfer fee. It also gives him perhaps a season to find full fitness and form and gives us more time to plan a replacement if he moves on.

Chermiti should go out on loan for the season, which just leaves Beto. He has improved with support since David Moyes came in and I love his attitude, but his limitations are obvious.

A fit and firing Dom can terrorise defences, he deserved his England call up at the time. He's also scored some important goals for us.

For me, yes he misses too many one-on-ones but this can be worked on as he tries to side foot the ball rather than blast it. Some are good enough to side foot but, for those who aren't, a good old-fashioned blast can work.

He's free, he's still got a good few years left in him and he is a good footballer who will be more productive with a better midfield and a decent attacking right flank.

We could do a lot worse.

Every Xmas Day, my Uncle Tony used to get bladdered, head upstairs and come down in drag. That was in the 70s. His wife and sisters (including my mum) thought it was funny. And he had 3 sons!

People need to stop focusing on nonsense like that. If Messi had wanted to play for Everton, he could have turned up for training in a miniskirt for all I would have cared.

But anyway, I hope Calvert-Lewin stays and Moyes gets him scoring as well as leading the line. I think he’s a cracking footballer.

Beto's body looks more robust to with stand the battering of the Premier league. He looks capable of playing 38 games a season. Dom sadly can't do that anymore.

It appears that Beto has more pace than Dom. Its either that or he's a lot stronger at keeping the recovery tackle away.

Calvert-Lewin gets caught offside alot. He's the 2nd highest in the league, and that doesnt account that he misses a lot of games on top. That could be the quality of the balls coming into him, the timing of the run, or a lack of pace that necessitates him playing right on the shoulder.

We all know that dcl is a better footballer than beto. But that isn't enough if he's not scoring, lacks availability, gets caught offside a lot and doesn't offer an out ball/counter attack, from someone who wants to be one of our highest earners.

For £1.5m he's been a great signing. If it's come to the end, I can understand it. If the club want to retain him, as we lack numbers and finance, then we just got to get on with it.

Ian, I really respect your posts but I had to stop there mate. Both Beto and Calvert-Lewin have been poor 1-on-1 finishers.

Time will tell... a slower league may beckon?

I never said that either were great finishers. They've both missed a lot of chances between them.

Beto might be more erratic, but he can beat the keeper. Calvert-Lewin seems to hit the keeper in most situations by telegraphing the finish. There's little ball shift or picking out corner of the net in my view.

Over a season, Beto out scores Calvert-Lewin in my opinion comfortably, has a higher work rate and probably creates more counter attack threat.

Dominic can hold up play well and is great I'm the air, Beto is better at running behind a defence. Both can give defenders a very hard time and free up space for others.

They aren’t world beaters, but as others have noted there are other positions that we are desperate to fill as a matter of urgency.

Dom might well move elsewhere, I personally think we would regret letting him go but other opinions are valid (and what we are here for, after all).

Beto scuffed 5 was it 6 one-on-ones in 4/5 matches across March. If Calvert-Lewin had the same service and support that Beto has had since January unlike two to three years of being isolated up front, like others just ahead of me on this thread, unless I am misrepresenting them, Calvert-Lewin scores more goals.

Calvert-Lewin is a much better all-round forward than Beto but I fear through the isolation he had to endure that ended with Moyes that he will be discounted by many. Anyone who thinks that Beto is a better all-round striker than Calvert-Lewin is nuts, but I fear that the time has gone for Calvert-Lewin, and Jesus wept Burnley, Leeds, Sunderland, might beckon. Hope not.

Good observations, Ian.

Beto takes a right battering from opposition defenders, but can withstand it.

I sometimes wonder if Dominic has suffered from being overplayed from a young age in a struggling team, which might explain his injuries. I also personally think he hit the gym and bulked up too much/

Footballer fitness is different to other sports. Footballers, in my opinion are better if they are leaner rather than full of muscle. Cardio over pumping weights.

I would like to see both feature next season, with another addition.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has a top speed of 34.6 km/h (21.5 mph). This places him among the fastest players in the Premier League.

Who is fastest and who walks the most? This season's Premier League statistics

Meanwhile, odds on Jack Grealish joining us have dropped to 4/1, behind Napoli on 5/2.

The night club owners in Liverpool will have the biggest boost to trade since Shandy Andy Van Der Meyde left.

I'd give Grealish a body swerve.

Grealish is better than anybody that we have on the books right now but personally I think we need to direct our budget onto other priorities.

At 35.13 km/h Beto wins on this Top Trumps category!

Calvert-Lewin - 3 goals in 1613 minutes or 18 games. 16 chances missed.

Those figures speak for themselves, less goals and more chances missed.

Apart from one season where he scored 21 goals, the covid season which to me is an outliers, the highest he scored was 15, and that was 5 years ago before the injuries.

I would tip Beto to get around 12-15 goals, where as I don't think Dom can.

Yes, a player needs time to get back to full fitness but he’s never fully fit for very long. This season he had 20 odd games fully fit and I’m sorry but he didn’t deliver. He misses one on ones all the time. Great hold up player but his finishing is dreadful.

Time to stop being sentimental and be more ambitious. If he stays, and I actually want him to…. It’s as a squad player. But we will not turn the 11/12 draws we had this season into wins without a ruthless finisher. Something we haven’t had for ages. We should do everything we can to sign a finisher.

It’s chicken and egg with Calvert-Lewin — he’s always injured or coming back from injury or doesn’t have the right support etc.

But when he is fit and is presented with decent chances… he fluffs his lines.

Looking at his output the last few seasons, I'm going back to good old Blue Bill. "What would Everton do?, they always get it right"

Let's hope they do!

They would be decent options for the coming season - but we need to find or develop a player with better technical skills for the forward position(s) to kick on as a club.

Danny's point on Calvert-Lewin changing in body shape over the years rings true and I think the same could have been said about Gareth Bale. Both players could be said to have followed the C Ronaldo route in having very low body fat and tight muscles rather than lean muscle which could be prone to pulls, tears and strains.

I watch Calvert-Lewin play and I often think he could fulfil the role Fellaini used to play for us as a target man to hold the ball with a striker like Beto running behind him or playing just ahead of him?

When he's actually on the pitch and not in the treatment room he is a decent hold up player but I want more from my centre forward, definitely more than 4 or 5 goals a season. >

Let's move him on and stop harking back to when he had one of Europe's top assist providers making the team tick and putting them on a plate for him; as soon as James was injured the goals dried up.

Calvert-Lewin is not good value for the wages he wants and Beto is a far better finisher in my opinion.

"It appears that he has more pace than Dom" – Wrong. They have both been clocked and he is decidedly slower.

"Beto looks more robust to stand the battering of the Premier League" -– Even though they are both roughly the same age and Calvert-Lewin has played about 76 more games than Beto's 200 (many as substitute, in lesser leagues).

"Calvert-Lewin gets caught offside a lot. He's the second highest in the league" – Yeah, that would be his fault. We haven't made it easy for defenders to step up as Pickford telegraphs the fact that he is about to hammer it 60 yards up the pitch.

"He doesn't offer an out-ball or counter-attack" What???? For 5 years, he has been asked to be our only out-ball.

"Beto appears to be the better finisher" – That'll explain why Calvert-Lewin has scored more than him playing at a much higher level for most of his career.

if these are good observations, I'm glad I won't be here when somebody starts making stuff up.

I love this little gem: "I personally think he hit the gym and bulked up too much" – Nothing to do with a succession of desperate managers playing him when they knew he was injured then.

Like I say, the guy is better off out of it. Best for all concerned that he moves on.

I love Beto, but when people start to compare him favourably to an infinitely better player, it's time for the better player to fuck off. He clearly ain't wanted.

Quote from this article to save you scrolling: "Everton’s Dominic Calvert-Lewin finishes the season having scored fewer goals than his xG for the sixth campaign running. Since 2018-19, no Premier League player has underperformed by more than his 17.2 goals below expectation. Ouch."

I know that xG is marmite, but it is a metric for which lengthy and repeated periods of unavailability, and service provided by the team you play for are both redundant.

All of us have a view and being critical of a player, even thinking he is rubbish, does not equate with hating them. I don't think Calvert-Lewin is rubbish. His limitations in front of goal should dictate that, if he stays, it is as an option up front and not first choice when fit. Useful player from the bench, fine by me.

My understanding, based on nothing more than press reporting at the time, was that he didn't sign the contract offered because it wasn't enough money; nothing to do with his football philosophy. If he can get better money now, then good luck to him but I can't see why Everton would offer him any more, and will probably feel emboldened by Beto's goals to be less generous.

I couldn't agree more.

You can’t simply discount the 2020-21 season as an “outlier” because the statistics contradict your argument.

Haaland, Isak, Jackson, Watkins, Wood, Wellbeck, Delap, plus Fulham and Everton who cannot decide who is best in that role.

So you can play a different style and of cause, most sides have tall, strong defenders who are likely to score as many goals as some of the above.

Colin Crooks stop posting sensible messages. As the saying goes, you can take a horse to water but can't make it drink.

Best post is: “Well, Beto is 0.5 kph faster than Calvert-Lewin” (Top Trumps) — I truly hold my head in my hands.

Best of luck in Turkey, Dom.

Is the latter because he has too much time and is so busy weighing up what to do he is in two minds? Is it that he lacks the confidence? I don't know. But a whole summer of 4 hours a day on the training pitch with the academy goalkeepers doing 1-on-1s could be a solution.

I do think we are a better team with him.

Let's see what happens and if he stays (I hope he does), let's see how he performs with a decent set-up going forward.

Just one thing about one-on-ones. Beto went through a spell of several or more games where he fluffed six one-on-ones in a row. They're not as easy as people think and the difference between scoring and not is affected by so many factors.

I believe that, if there is an advantage to the striker, it isn't necessarily significant.

We have seen so little of Chermiti that it’s not really possible to judge him. However, he’s been here a while now and successive managers haven’t shown much belief in him.

We will probably need to rely on the lovable but flawed Beto as it is pie in the sky to think we can afford a significant upgrade.

Pro footballers run their contracts down to make money. It's not rocket science.

Consider a penalty where the goalie can't come out to narrow the angle, apparently the easiest chance for a striker. 30% are typically missed so I reckon overall at best the chances are 50/50 or less favourable for the striker in a one-on-one against a Premier League keeper.

Anecdotally, it seems to me that in many one-on-one situations the striker misses and reckon that the odds are against on average, therefore not 'a sitter'. I find the Everton defendants not guilty.

I, like you and others, only go off what I see and how we interpret what we see. It doesn't mean we will always agree. I still look forward to meeting you, mate.

Phil, good call. Strikers are normally better positioned to score when they don't have time to think and go off instinct. A bit like at the other end of the pitch, it is the same for the keepers and defenders.

I put my body on the line many times and once nearly had a fractured skull as a knee hit my temple stopping a winger as the last man standing. One of the few times I stayed down, apart from breaks and ligaments, to receive treatment and be carried off.

But my favourite moment was in extra time to win a league title. I was on the goal line, almost crippled with cramp on a hot May Day. The ball came towards me in the last minute with the score at 5 - 4 in our favour.

I stretched out my leg in pain. The ball hit my shin, bounced off the post and I managed to clear it for a throw-in that didn't happen as the final whistle went.

I do miss being on the pitch, but those days are gone.

You don't, you made it up. Pure conjecture passed off as a fact. Why do you do it?

Dom scored 1 goal from 2 games under Moyes in a starting role. Nothing wrong with that, but to use the stats from his games under Dyche is bullshit, even Haaland wouldn't score under Dyche's defensive formation.

Surely we are at the point where if someone writes 'he's running his contract down' it can be assumed that this is an opinion, rather than that I have been bugging his home to 'get the truth'.

His best season were behind closed door exhibition matches, at a time before his injuries – that his body can't repeat now.

The 2020-21 Covid season was not a typical season. Look back at some the results. Villa beat Liverpool 7-2, Spurs beat Man Utd 6-1 away the same weekend. Burnley, Brighton, Southampton, Fulham, Everton all beat Liverpool. I am sure there were others, but Covid football isn't the same thing.

Some do, some don't. Again, that's just your opinion.

Opinions aren't rocket science either, they're more like arseholes in that we all have one. 😉

This isn't a “some do, some don't” scenario. These are multi-million pound contracts which, if allowed to run to zero, cost the clubs tens of millions of pounds.

Footballers don't do it for a variety of reasons, they do it cos they stand to make tens of millions of pounds as a result.

We aren't peering into a crystal ball when we accuse these players of greed, it's staring everyone if the face.

You don't know why Calvert-Lewin has not renewed.

For my money, the lad unfortunately gets injured too often.

In all fairness, do you really think Calvert-Lewin would have signed the contract when offered under Dyche, playing alone upfront in a toxic game plan, and with Moshiri still in charge???

In the same way that, whilst I can't know Bill Kenwright purchased and kept hold of Everton cos he saw it as a golden goose, from his behaviour and statements, I have drawn the conclusion that this is what happened.

Christy, that's an interesting point; probably not. But there's a whole lot of other things that have to happen before you get to that position. Sometimes players want to move on, and the club sells them on and everyone is happy, But we had a deal lined up with Newcastle last year, and then Dom pulled it. You may recall Barkley was in a very similar situation.

I'm not arguing about the circumstances or the things that lead you to your opinion and I respect your reasons for having that opinion.

It's just that, in the case of Calvert-Lewin, I disagree with your opinion.

Calvert-Lewin's best season was simply because no-one was watching.

Best season during Covid does not a top striker make. He's mentally weak if you ask me, or as a song:

Shits his pants when he gets a chance

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

Barkley is another debate, like marmite… I actually liked Ross, but he was put in an impossible position by Koeman, who used him as a scapegoat and treated him like shit.

He never went hiding and always looked for the ball, and Koeman kept bringing him off and publicly bad-mouthed him. In the end, he ran down his contract, probably bitter.

Now he's 28 and in his prime years. Yet he has lost so much of his career through injury. If he could stay fit and Moyes and his staff could coach some better finishing into him, he could be a much better striker.

But DCL has to accept he's not the world class striker he appears to think he is and his salary should reflect this. Get a decent injury-free season and a double-figure goal return and maybe his contract could be renegotiated.

'If there was a stat that recorded the number of shots straight at the keeper.'

There is…

It's called the 'Calvert-Lewin Index'.

Nothing to do with his game.

Good footballer, excellent at winning aerial duels and holding the ball up but lacks the natural instinct of a goalscorer. He then imo insulted the club by refusing to renew his contract after the club looked after him for 3 years, nursing him back to fitness.

When he and his agent realized he wasn't wanted – elsewhere especially due to his wage demands – he suddenly wants to sign a contract.

Too late for me, young man. I would have you up the road in no time.

You've also swallowed whole the false narrative of another poster regarding my view of Dom's shooting ability. In my post he has tried to keep alive with CPR and hospice, I opined that Dom couldn't shoot a ball and then erred in saying he had never scored a great "goal", which I corrected in my next post to "strike" (a correction deliberately ignored by that other poster in the interest of controversy). I don't recall anyone ever posting an example to refute my view. He has never struck anything resembling the crackers we've seen from Dwight (several times), Ndiaye, Keane, Doucs, Jarrad, Tarks and even Gana when he swerved one off the underside of the crossbar. Shots like those are well beyond Calvert-Lewin's capability.

In case you're interested (and I don't know that you are), my opinion has always been that Carlo's coaching helped Dom enormously, but not just positioning in the box. In Dom's early seasons I often moaned that he was reactive, moving for crosses only after he saw them coming in, and frequently just couldn't reach them. The difference I saw in him under Carlo -- who had coached some of the world's best -- was that he made strong, committed early runs that left defenders in his wake and enabled him to get on the end of crosses much better than he had.

Unfortunately since Carlo's departure he has missed an average of 20 games a season, which makes it hard to maintain that confidence and sharpness.

Again, just my opinion.

ps... curious, where did you see the pace numbers you mentioned?

From my opinion, for what it's worth, if he walks onto the pitch wearing an Everton shirt next season, then he's got my backing. As every single one of them who have the honour do so, as they have done all my life.

As for Dominic specifically, I've had some memorable moments watching Everton and seen us lift trophies including a European one.

But that diving header against Crystal Palace when I inadvertently ended up in the the Lower Bullens with the away supporters is up with them. They were actually celebrating with me!!

I don't know if he will stay but, if he does, it won't be the end of the world. Stay fit and give us more moments.

Enough said for me, honest.

Thank you for coming back to me, Mike. I was hoping you would.

I may have gotten this wrong, but I'm pretty sure I read a post from you saying you would like to get a bet on FOtM Delap scoring more goals than Calvert-Lewin next season. Trouble is; I can't find it. So, by addressing you personally in this thread, I was hoping to provoke you into coming back so I could accommodate you, if indeed you did say that.

But first I must address your latest post.

I get frustrated when I see people use the fuck-witted xG argument to try to denigrate one of our players. In fact I get frustrated by the whole concept of xG.

I wonder if those who spout this drivel think players like Salah or Haaland would come even close to their current stats if they had expended all their energies fighting off 2 often 3 centre-backs for an aimless long ball... every single match?

I wonder if their "stats" would have suffered if they had ploughed a lone furrow without another striker in the same postcode to offer support or decoy runs?

I wonder if they would have been superstars had they been forced to make virtually all the chances the got through closing down themselves?

I'm not putting Calvert-Lewin in their bracket, but I seriously wonder if there is a forward alive who could have thrived playing up for Everton throughout the past 5 years?

For me. People who put forward stats compiled by other people, are simply demonstrating ignorance. They are basing their entire argument on figures that don't even begin to reveal the facts. They are demonstrating they don't understand their own stats… their own argument.

Case in point: You argue that every stat available will prove Beto is the better finisher. Unfortunately for the stattos, the one fact that matters is the one which proves he has scored nowhere near as many goals as Calvert-Lewin – despite being roughly the same age and playing at a lower level for most of his playing career.

I love Beto, but when these two players hang up their boots, his stats will not be worth a blow on a ragman's bugle.

Only the facts will matter. We don't know the xG of people like Wright, Shearer or Aguero, but we will always know how many they scored.

As for your claim that Carlo Ancelotti improved Calvert-Lewin, I would seriously contest that point as well.

The simple fact is, Carlo found a tactic to ill-use the player which was subsequently copied by other managers. One which very nearly destroyed the most promising of careers.

Anyway, Mike, to this wager. I assume we are not looking to empty each others pockets and I know we are both ardent supporters of Cancer Research. I believe Calvert-Lewin will score more than Delap wherever they play their football next season. I am happy to donate £25 extra to Cancer Research if I am wrong. Will you do the same?

As I said before Ian, stats do not speak for themselves. I wish people would understand this and take Stats-101. Lessons 1-4: how and why stats need to: (1) not be taken at face value; (2) be questioned all the time; (3) be understood like any text as something subjective; (4) and not be ripped out of context to sit there on a page or post alone.

My colleague, who is an associate professor in the Stats Department, says that the simplest introduction to all of this for anyone who might be interested in understanding the nature of the statistics they offer is Heumann, Schomaker, and Shalabh, Introduction to Statistics and Data Analysis.

My friend's last book was on "statistics and casual inference". "Casual inference" from bald statistics, who'd have thought! He did smile when I told him that "figures speak for themselves".

"Figures {do not} speak for themselves" and I think Lesson 4 on context is rather important here when statistics are rattled off without any sort of context.

As a good number have posted already on here to correct the nutty idea that Beto has been "isolated" up front, the systems under Dyche (for Calvert-Lewin) and Moyes (for Beto) are very different for the reasons that have already been explained. For these folk, there is general agreement that the service and support the striker has enjoyed under Moyes is much improved. Beto was also shite under Dyche.

But your statistics do now allow for any differentiation along these lines, Ian.

And Colin, how is xG fuck-witted? It is data from observed outcomes.

This is a player playing for a new contract, against tired defenders, 2 of which were relegation teams… and that's his contribution?

£5M+ a season mate for 3 goals, and a player that should be third choice next season? Do me a favour!

Honestly, I love the loyalty of fans of supporting lads in blue. He is a better technical player than Beto – but come on, if we want to move forward, then this sort of nonsense from fans of wanting trophies and league progression but keeping Thewell, Keane, and Calvert-Lewin has got to stop.

If he does manage to get a new contract out of Everton, it can only be because Moyes has gone soft or can't persuade another striker to replace him!

We both want the same thing and I will not convince you and you will not convince me about Beto.

I'll have to disagree with you on Ancelotti, and it's not a dig. I think he did improve Calvert-Lewin. Simple instructions for a striker: "Get in the box."

There are some people who look back at Carlo's disastrous stint as Everton manager with a warped dewey-eyed nostalgia. They are the people you should be addressing, not me. I know different.

I find your argument very weak and it cuts no ice with me.

Dewey eyed? I'll leave that for previous teams and managers. I only said, that in my opinion, Ancelotti got the best out of Calvert-Lewin.

I don't think I've been teary-eyed in claiming he was the best manager we've had. I know who that is in my lifetime.

Wrong manager for the wrong club at the wrong time. Is that okay, Colin? Still looking forward to meeting you on the other side of a phone or keyboard…

When you repeatedly misquoted me three times last week, I honestly thought you were lying.... very badly. Especially when what I actually said was still up there and others were telling you to stop digging.

Now I'm thinking I did you a disservice. You are not lying. You just post without any thought at all.

Are you really claiming you were not addressing me in post 112? Read what you wrote, for fuck's sake.

And when you write "I'll have to disagree with you about Carlo", you'll need to forgive me for thinking you were not agreeing with me.

Sorry, I'll debate with anybody, but I'm not getting into an argument with somebody who denies what was said two posts ago.

That also applies to managers we don't rate.

I think Colin is saying xG looks at goal scoring ‘chances' in isolation and doesn't factor in each players' particular role in the team or level of work overall.

So a player who has to absolutely bust a gut battling for possession as part of their role may naturally not be as composed as one who gets to be a peripheral player biding their time waiting to receive a ball in a good ‘starting' position.

When the facts are presented, their response is typically to dispute the validity of statistics per se, try to choose a segment that suits their opinion, or just say they can see with their own eyes. In this regard, all Premier League clubs are wrong in having entire teams for player performance analysis based on statistics!

Take for example the win ratio of Carlo Ancelotti at Everton — 46.3%. That only puts him behind Kendall Mk 1 and Catterick in the post war era, however much it makes some choke on their cornflakes.

Like you, if you put yourself out there, we are open to different views and being challenged. It mostly generates healthy debate, even if it gets a bit tasty at times. My point doesn't have to cut ice with you. You have your own view.

I won't hide, as these pages won't allow you to. I have said, that despite the final league position, Everton under Ancelotti were one game away from European football. The league never lies.

We were one game away from the title in 85-86, but it was matches prior to that, when we dropped points that cost us. Similarly under Ancelotti. Wrong manager, wrong club for him and at the wrong time.

I get very emotional about Everton, Colin, but like you, I'm not dewy-eyed when it comes to managers and players. Well, maybe Howard Kendall and Kevin Sheedy, but I'm allowed a free pass on that surely?

We still need to meet when we get the chance. I think you'll like me and the compliment would be two-way. Keep your challenges to my opinions coming, Colin. I will do the same with you. But don't take it as personal or addressing you.

I totally get that, in this data-driven world we live in, it has become an important factor in decision-making. Not just football, my own current and previous professions.

It isn't masking anything to support a point of view. There is still a lot to be said for instinct, supported by data. Artificial Intelligence is a classic example of this. I won't bore everyone with the detail. It enriches and accelerates decisions, but it doesn't replace the human intervention.

Out of contract and fannying on signing. Let him go to any of the 12 clubs above us, not a problem.

Harrison gets stick on here for working his bollocks off, problem is that he, like Calvert-Lewin, is as stated, not very good either.

Both are certainly not good enough if Everton are to improve or progress.

For example, this suggesting that Calvert-Lewin is a better goalscorer than Beto because he has scored more goals should always include the context that he has played over 6000 minutes more than the Portuguese, who started his career late in the day.

A better or fairer comparison for goalscoring prowess might be goals per minute. Over their entire career, Calvert-Lewin has a goal every 275 minutes and Beto has a goal every 198 minutes.

Of course there are plentiful other factors, such as Calvert-Lewin playing in a tougher league and playing on the right flank for parts of his career. Equally Beto played the majority of minutes for one of the weakest teams in Portugal. Impossible to ever capture the context entirely.

Hahaha, I think Stuart, from what I've inferred, is a Professor at Lancaster University and is on the science side of things.

Weigh the Player vs Coach options... I think he's bordering on being a long-term sicknote... make him an offer based on that premise and the new management wage structure.

Sign or don't.

Here's how I saw it.

Calvert-Lewin had played all over the park for a variety of different managers. When we sacked the latest joker, Duncan Ferguson was put in charge... Fair?

Dominic started his first game out on the wing, tracking back, chasing lost balls into the corner flags... everything he had been told to do. Still fair?

The bollockings Ferguson gave Calvert-Lewin from the sidelines could be heard at the back of the stands. It could also be heard in living rooms all around the country. "Stop chasing that. Stay centre. Stay fucking centre-forward!!!"... Remember that?

Ferguson knew a thing or two about being ill-used by managers too frightened to trust his players to play "Boot It!!!"

So, over the next few games, Ferguson tried to get the best out of Calvert-Lewin as a centre-forward. Then, to the amazement of everybody in football, Carlo Ancelotti was appointed. He liked Calvert-Lewin as centre-forward too. He whispered a few pearls of wisdom in his ear:- "Get some footage of Inzaghi. See how he takes the strike first time without looking to take a couple of touches."

Surprisingly, Carlo did not see Ferguson as some sort of Caledonian cave-dweller — like many of our own supporters. He was impressed with him. Instructed him to spend long periods working with our promising young striker — all this is well documented.

The transformation was there for all to see. A combination of Ferguson's coaching and the professor's words of wisdom saw our young headless chicken turn into the most promising striker in the country. Carlo brought in a couple of superstars in time for the next season. We were buzzing and Calvert-Lewin was looking at times unplayable... then the wheels came off.

Our superstar was not playing as often as we wanted him to. New signing Doucoure had the legs, but not the savvy. Allan had the savvy, but not the legs. Dear Tom Davies was perpetually getting caught between two stools. Gylfi couldnt defend to save his life and Mason was last seen running off the edge of a cliff clutching a wad of money.

Despite having a vastly superior squad to the current one, Carlo suddenly realised his team had the softest underbelly in the league. Journeymen from the likes of Sheffield Utd were walking right through his ranks virtually unchallenged. He was fucked and so were we.

Fearing his reputation was being damaged, Carlo abandoned any intentions of playing football. He wanted the his piss-weak midfield by-passed. He ordered his players to give it to Pickford so he could boot it 60 yards up the pitch. He reacted angrily to criticism of his tactics: "I'm not a magician!"

Carlo tried to justify his, err... 'tactics' to an Italian reporter. He told him "When you have a goalkeeper who can kick it long and a player who is so incredibly good at receiving it whilst under pressure, you use them. It gets you in to opposition territory."

In 70 years of watching this club, I can honestly say that nobody else came even close to the disappointment I felt in Ancelotti. He didn't quit the night Real Madrid came calling — he'd quit months before.

Those who claim Carlo made Calvert-Lewin a top striker need to take a closer look. He very nearly destroyed him; by abusing his ability to take a long hoof under his spell, he was setting the precedent for a string of his successors. An easy way out.

Dyche even used Carlo as an excuse for abandoning any thought of playing football. If it was good enough for the Professor, it was good enough for him.

But hey — fuck the facts. Carlo showed what a great Everton manager he was by bringing home better stats than Mike Walker, Walter Smith. Rafa Benitez and Frank Lampard. What was it? 46.3% Win Ratio?... Wow!

Stattos eh? Where would we be without them? Beto would have lasted about 30 seconds under Carlo... or any of his predecessors for that matter.

It was put up as an irrefutable fact.

I enjoy our debates. I can't compete with your 70 years, I'm nearing 50 years, being born in 1971.

Ancelotti's reputation and trophy cabinet speaks for itself. I'll repeat myself. Wrong manager at the wrong time.

We got Allan at least 2 years too late. He started well, but as you say, the legs went quickly.

To agree with your point, maybe Ferguson did coach Dominic. That would have been his job. But it will probably have been under instruction from the manager. They give direction and that's what they have a coaching team for.

You are correct on Duncan the player. I've often called him the reluctant footballer, but totally what you say. We didn't use him correctly.

When we did, with wingers getting balls into the box, he was effective. Good on the ball, that is often overlooked.

When we pumped the ball up to him centrally from the half way line, he wasn't. But that wasn't his fault, it was the tactics.

Once again, we are probably agreeing in our disagreement. I wouldn't and won't try to change your opinion on Ancelotti. It is clearly stated. I just have a different view. And you won't change that.

And it isn't a dewey eyed one. Just a shame we couldn't have him at the right time.

Of course Dominic has scored more goals. He's being playing for Everton since 2016, compared to Beto with us since 2023.

As with both players, and strikers, it's how you properly use and supply them.

Get the ball in the opposition's onion bag and keep it out of yours. Pass the ball to a team mate in a better position and stop the opposition at all cost.

Silly old me. Stats, xG and ratios are for mathematicians.

For footballers, I would class them as close to meaningless if applied wrongly.

Right now, the priority is on sorting out existing contracts. I think (hope) we will start seeing business starting next month.

I will see you next season at the new stadium, Martin. Maybe at the 3rd test event in pre-season… yet to be announced.

Sean, I still don't understand what xG means.

If you’re not into stats, xG etc, that’s fine. But they are tools of analysis that are increasingly popular and that many like to use to get into depth on the football.

If all you’re interested is the result then what’s the point of this site and thousands like it? Fans like to pour over results and discuss tactics, players, signings, performances, managers etc. How they choose to do so is up to them.

Each to their own.

For me, I mostly go off instinct. As a player, a coach and a supporter, I go with what I see on the pitch. Pace, power, skill, making space, movement, aggression.

Football is instinctive. You can't predict it. You just do it. Sometimes you get it right; others you don't. But you make a decision and act on the situation in front of you.

It doesn't make me right. It's just how I view the game and players.

Danny, different points of view are fine, but I do think it's strange to come on a football fan site and suggest that the result is all that matters and that other people's ways of analysis has no place in football.

Fine if stats aren't for you but I don't think we should be casting aspersions on others people's methods. Do you?

What I am sure of, is giving Calvert-Lewin another 2-3 year contract of £100k a week is going to cost £12-18M to see if he is finished or not.

That seems to me a waste of money based on the stats I've provided and what I see with my own eyes. If others want to give him that, don't be bellyaching later that we don't win football matches, as you've just advocated spending some of the precious loot on a player that doesn't perform.

And I can't be alone in that view. There's a huge football world out there, and the media speculation of him going somewhere else is radio silent. Doesn't that strike you as odd? A 28-year-old English striker at his peak, Premier League experience… and not being linked anywhere?

Newcastle could get him for zero, rather than £30M last year; Arsenal need a striker; Italy love Premier League rejects, Saudi same; and even the promoted teams are not being linked.

It's a nice try to say you need convincing around Beto, when that wasn't and hasn't been my point. I think he could do okay, but equally he could be a flash in the pan. Whichever, we need another striker, and Moyes is looking.

And we need a striker who shoots more often, someone like Bowen.

I remember talking football with a man who won both the league and European Cup as a player and went on to have a very long career coaching in the England set-up. During the conversation, I kept thinking football isn't played on paper, and what you're describing what you would get your team to do, is making me think that you are either not listening to me properly or you just don't understand what I'm saying.

Maybe if he had sat next to me, watching the issue or situation that was causing the issue, he might have understood what I was saying a lot better, but either way it just made me think that a large part of coaching is shite, and 90% of coaches are being employed because a friend has got him the job.

I might be wrong, but if I can't listen to many pundits then I'm definitely not taking any notice of a robot.

Since he wore a skirt, there were many Evertonians who struggled (bizarrely in my eyes) to let that go. Queue lots of derisive and judgemental comments online about that.

The booing of him when he broke his cheekbone did nothing I am sure to help this; no doubt it didn't help his struggles with mental health which he has been brave and open about. I personally don't think he has been treated that well by some pockets of fans and I suspect it's landed badly with him.

As a hold-up No 9 who is mobile and a real threat in the air, he is a good option for us right now (assuming we don't offer more than he is currently on). With a vastly improved team around them, Beto and Calvert-Lewin will do fine next season.

Giving a new contract now should open up opportunities for us to get a marquee signing or two elsewhere in the squad; if it allowed us to go all out for Wesley and Dibling, then I would be chuffed as nuts with that. We could always sell him next summer when we have a striker lined up.

The crowd seem to have more empathy with Beto than Calvert-Lewin; for some reason, the crowd have never really taken to Dom, for whatever reason. And I think my fellow Blues are usually good judges.

Your football knowledge seems pretty good but not sure about your maths. If you were born in '71 then you're not "...nearing 50" – you're looking at that in your rear-view mirror.

And believe me, mate, it diminishes pretty quickly.

The main problem, and I can guess Dyche and Moyes see this as well is that there is no Rodriguez or Digne or Richarlison or a flying Coleman to put in those crosses to maximise Calvert-Lewin's attributes. No quality out wide = minimal Calvert-Lewin goals.

Adding another point of view, if Moyes can't because of transfer fees or doesn't want to go down the route of getting past the full-back and crossing in etc, then time to let Calvert-Lewin go somewhere else and potentially hit 20 goals a season. If Moyes is bringing in a fast right winger with a decent cross on him etc, then we want to keep Calvert-Lewin so he can do what he does best next season.

Keep Mykolenko on the left as his crossing has lead to a few decent goals and he just needs to time when to get further forward more often. I think he's got more to unlock going forwards.

All opinions. That's how I see it next season.

Bowen signed a new contract which still has 2-3 years to run.

It being AI-generated doesn't demean it in any way for me.

The link to Richarlison is probably that, but I would want someone younger for that role ideally – and someone with lightening pace.

And this article proves that AI can absorb vast amounts of information, regurgitate it in any form, and tell you absolutly nothing of any worth.

"Calvert-Lewin another 2-3 year contract of £100k a week is going to cost £12-18M to see if he is finished or not. That seems to me a waste of money based on the stats I've provided"

So Ian, where do we find a prolific striker to replace him for the £12-18M we save? Delap is £30M plus likely the same wages. We could go with a cheap up-and-coming youngster from a lower league but does that really put us in a better position than having Beto as the main striker?

If AI made strikers, it wouldn't make either Beto or Calvert-Lewin, though!

You know better than me.

Centre-forwards are selfish sulky characters, and rightly so, we've played with enough of them. They rant at everyone, but are the ones who need a cuddle, whereas us centre-backs literally take it in the neck for them and let them have the glory.

I think the best quote I had was a great player and close friend from Sunderland. "Fucking hell, Danny, do you think my boots are on my head"? He came straight over to me after I put him through on goal.

His lad came through at Sunderland and was bought by Liverpool. I think he's still there. He had a loan spell at Dundee United and got player of the season for them.

I know a lot of people don't get the chance, but YouTube, the internet and the tele don't really give you the same sense as seeing it live on the pitch, whichever level you are watching.

As I keep saying, watch the movement, making space for others to run into, bothering defenders. There is more to a striker's game than scoring goals even though that is their trademark.

I don't think it's Beto v Dominic. Should Calvert-Lewin stay, there's a place for both of them in the squad. Different players, but then no two players are the same, you can use them differently or together in different circumstances or rotate them.

I always remember when people said Graeme Sharp and Andy Gray couldn't play together after Adrian Heath got injured. Well, that one certainly worked out.

The 50 tag is more when I can remember supporting Everton, even though I apparently have done since 16 September 1971.

My first early memories were when I was 3, my first match at Goodison when I was 4 or 5 in 1976.

Sam, of course every supporter's opinion matters. Mine isn't always right, it's just mine. I don't recall saying results are all that matters. Disappointed at results, yes. But I'm always more interested in the performance. We all want the 3 points, but as long as the team goes down giving everything, I don't have complaints.

I don't won't to praise Braiden Graham too much but that's the player I think Everton will have in the first team in the not too distant future — sorry, I forgot about his fighting spirit — oh, and his red hair!

He looks like a fiery character too, with attitude about him.

It would be good to have him in and around the first team squad next season along with Armstrong and Harrison.

But I think the reason he ran his contract down was cos he wanted to boost that income, not take a pay cut. That was why he walked away from Champions League footy with Newcastle last year.

But he took a gamble that he wouldn't be injured all year, and I'm afraid that gamble failed. It will be hilarious if he does have to suck it up and sign on again here on reduced wages (that'll learn him!) but I just can't see it. I think he'd rather go to Saudi just on principle.

It's MO is user retention so it will put a positive spin on your latest business plan of selling shit on a stick and validate your ideas no matter how lunatic, eg, Maupay is misunderstood and misused and is the Jota/Bowen type Everton are missing.

No chance of that on here!

Since then it's rather less impressive:

2021-22 - 5 goals
2022-23 - 2 goals
2023-24 - 9 goals
2024-25 - 3 goals

My heart tells me I would love him to regain full fitness and recreate his form from 5 years ago. My head tells me otherwise.

"The reason he ran his contract down was cos he wanted to boost that income, not take a pay cut. That was why he walked away from Champions League footy with Newcastle last year."

The way I remember it at the time was it was Newcastle refused his wage demands and fucked him off, not the other way round.

"Lies, damn lies and statistics"

Was it Shakespeare?

He could have gone to Newcastle if his wage demands weren't excessive (unless we think Newcastle are particularly tight-fisted post the Arab takeover).

Not Shakepeare then…

There's a big difference between walking away and being told to do one.

Nobody actually "knows."

Yes, Calvert-Lewin turned down Champions League footy; yes, he's cost us tens of millions in a transfer fee; and yes, that will boost his wage demands considerably when he comes to negotiate.

But who can say what his real motivations were? It's a mystery.

Moyes has already said Everton have not got enough value for their investment so I doubt the previous contract offer made under former ownership and management will be on the table, if anything at all is.

Depending on what other offers he has, Calvert-Lewin might accept a low basic salary with a highly incentivised bonus structure related to appearances. Everton shouldn't accept any greater financial risk than that, in my opinion.

Maybe Dominic hates playing in front of a crowd?

Tongue-in-cheek… but, since Benitez played him with a broken toe, he's never really had a good run without being injured. (Sometimes I think it's a miracle that Everton are still a Premier League club, the way we were mismanaged.) Before this, when the ground was empty, Dominic had his most prolific spell.

It was also Everton who had their most prolific spell in years early in that season, and I can still remember Dominic scoring all kinds of different goals, with his header against Liverpool probably being his best in terms of overall power and agility.

I also think it would probably suit him if he left us, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him scoring a lot more goals if he signs for a team that play with a lot of width.

Show me proof he turned down champions league football. "Proof."

And I'll never question you again.

Because again you're making statements as fact when you just don't know!

I was sure negotiations broke down with the player, but looking again, it seems we had him priced at north of £35M.

I withdraw my complaint!

There won't be any proof, Brian. In January, there was no guarantee that Newcastle would qualify for Champions League.

As it transpired, it came down to results on the last day when they had a nervous wait as we beat them 1 - 0 and they relied on other results.

It's not to everyone's taste but I was working on something for my business, was using ChatGPT and for my own entertainment thought I'd ask ChatGPT for its opinion on DCL.

First effort was to give me an in depth review of Data Control Language!

I'll hopefully submit Part 2 tomorrow...

'I'm really looking forward to seeing Dom run out at BMD next season. UTFT.'

For which team? :)

A nice swerve there, I GRANT you that, Ian.

Let's wait and see eh? 😉

There is the "very" rare occasion where I do make a good point.

This is not the first time I've checked on things I thought took place in the recent past and have had to reverse ferret. It's that bloody Matrix malfunctioning again.

I really admire your patience and calmness in your interactions on TW. I could learn a lot from it!

Qualitative and quantitative information is critical, but human judgement does play the critical part - making decisions.

Where statistics do help is to provide a factual basis to counter-act something claimed vehemently that is self-evidently nonsense.

If we are to be competitive in the top half of the Premier League with aspirations for a place in European competitions, we need better quality players.

He, in my opinion, is not the goal scorer we need to take us there. Neither is Beto for that matter, so which is better may form an interesting discussion in the pub, but to me is totally irrelevant.

If Calvert-Lewin is re-signed next season on what is sure to be a comparable deal or better, it would indicate to me that the club are not really serious about competing at a higher level.

Let's close the book on this one, and use his freed up wages to try and attract a young striker or two with quality and pace and hopefully a potential sell-on value.

Maybe I should pay more attention to statistics.

I love reading with interest those who do. It educates my narrow blue mind.

Far from it.

For me it's time to move on, the lad is unreliable regardless of his hold up play etc.

He's not on the pitch enough for me. New ground new start, let's move on,

I think Calvert-Lewin would do well in the 3-5-2 that Inzaghi plays at Inter – with a more talented forward / striker alongside him – and quality balls into the box from from wide areas. Not necessarily as a starter, since Thuram is better. But an option from the bench.

In my view ,he would be a good option from the bench for quite a few Champions League regular clubs. Ex Stoke "star" Joselu did a good job of being a limited, muscular focal point for Real recently, and Calvert-Lewin is certainly better than Joselu. A fair few lesser clubs like Napoli or Leverkusen etc could do worse.

By now, he really should just be an option from the bench for us -– but our lack of money / extreme cost cutting have meant we over-relied on him for too long (exacerbating the injuries at the same time).

If he were coming to the end of his contract at, say, West Ham, I am pretty sure there would be a lot of fans saying he should be our number one target - a no brainer on a free for a striker with a good track record when playing (which he has hardly ever done at Everton) in a decent side with good width and full-back play. The wages are high, yes, but offset by the lack of transfer fee.

Indeed, you could see why Moyes might be quite keen given there won't be lots of quality striker options within budget. So it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him stay – although I think that would probably be an underwhelming outcome for both parties.

If I were him, I would be heading abroad either for pay check (Saudi) or experience (Serie A or La Liga or Bundesliga) but it might depend on how he feels about uprooting wife and child.

But, I believe Beto outscores him under similar conditions, and goals win games

Beto for all his perceived faults is a a genuine goal threat and physical threat, going towards goal.

And to compliment it all, Beto seems to genuinely just fucking want it, like really fucking appreciate his situation as Everton’s main striker. It makes the fans root for him, we love a good hard worker who seems genuine

I was with you up to "Oh, and if we can get Grealish on loan"….
You lost me then.😀

I would definitely give Calvert-Lewin a new contract, not an improved one though.

Did you see how he left the Newcastle Utd centre-half not knowing what day it was? A bit more composure and that would have been goal of the month contender.

With a second reliable striker in the squad Dom's game time can be managed and hopefully less injuries.

It's time we stopped paying huge salaries to players we rarely see!

It will obviously come down to whether the player wants to stay, and if the manager and club want to keep him.

Not being one to get carried away with rumours, I've not heard much in terms of interest, but who knows what is going on in the background?

I agree Bill. For me, the big frustration with Dominic is how much we haven't seen of him, not his performances.

I won't lose sleep if he leaves. I won't be disappointed if he stays.

But lets not get into that right now. Ahem.

Put bluntly he is a waste of money. A bad investment.

Look at the real stats, goals, assists, chances. Dreadful at all for last 3 seasons.

Actually isn't hardworking. Does not chase down after first 5 minutes.

Is outperformed in the air 1 on 1 vs defenders, losing most aerial duals.

Inability to score in 1vs1 ie keeper

Chances missed and off target. Offsides.

Lets be clear, no one is going to play to the perceived "strength" of dcl and "formation" that suits him. End of.

His injury record is wretched.

He had his time, opportunities and failed.

Say thank you and goodbye.

He needs to go to a different team. Let's just grow up and accept he's a gonna. Time for a change.

I try not to judge him on performance. When on form, and with the right service, he's played well for us over the years in mostly poor and deteriorating teams.

He's still only 28 and in better team with better players around him, he would deliver a better outcome.

At 28, he still has a lot to offer. Whether that is with Everton or not, is out of our hands.

My thoughts are if Alcaraz is going to occassionally do the quick transition bit from defense to striker so the team can stay semi-defensive if he loses it, then another player who can score 1v1s would be an ideal player to match. Lineker mark 2 basically would be the most idea type of striker.

He certainly wouldn't have been a Dixie Dean, Tommy Lawton or Dave Hickson style of centre-forward. He simply wouldn't have lasted 2 minutes back then.

I like Beto, if he doesn't get bad injuries he will score plenty goals for us I'm sure.

I also like Calvert-Lewin and, if left to me, I would keep him, I do appreciate he has as many negatives as positive aspects to him and you can argue either way.

I just lean towards the best bits of his all round play.

I wonder how a fully fit Dominic would fare playing with Charly and Ndiaye in support? You're going into 4-3-3 territory there.

Liam, I still don't understand that Club World Cup thing other than one more money grabbing initiative. But then it doesn't surprise me. Maybe one day we will play in it.

Beto: hustle bustle strong, good on the ball when taking his chances, but without the aerial presence of Calvert-Lewin, but Beto still manages the flick on and occasionally gets a header in the opponents area.

I keep Beto and offload Calvert-Lewin, and recruit a quality forward or two, if we can get them for the right price.

Now there's a phrase that stretches TW credibility. 🤣

As we saw in the semi v Barca, Inter use width well – stay competitive in midfield by matching up a central trio against that of a 4-3-3 – and pose a real threat with two strikers.

So I think Calvert-Lewin could do really well in that sort of formation – alongside a more technical and talented striker like Martinez. We won't see it at Everton under Moyes though. But Calvert-Lewin might be asked to play that way if he goes abroad.

I really like the idea of Ndiaye and Alcaraz playing behind Mr Spearhead, although I'm seeing it as more of a 4-3-2-1. It could also work in a 3-4-2-1, making use of the fact we have three good centre-backs (with Keane in reserve, if he stays).

I know the Red Mancs play the latter formation, but they do it ever-so badly, so it's not necessarily an argument against that set-up.

Also, I would love to see Angel Gomes playing alongside Gana.

'Yes, you're correct. I didn't write a single original thought, just asked AI for a take on Calvert-Lewin as a player. Apparently, that's worse than Tarkowski's panic passes to Pickford.

If Beto can run around like a toddler on caffeine and still start, I'm allowed some robot help.

Just wanted a quick read, not a three-hour VAR debate on Mykolenko's crosses.

So yeah, no genius here - just me, a bot, and a bit of common sense."

By the way, that was AI's response to your post at 188. I am too lazy to think up my own response to your post… 😀

Interesting they are calling the plaza Village Street.

This as well:

It will join three other distinctive bars on Village Street which are The Queen's Head, Dixie's Sports Bar and Kendall's Social.

It's starting to happen. It's going to be different, but as my sister said yesterday, it will be a while before many move away from their County Road rituals.

Apparently the Pump House has links to providing power for the Docker's Umbrella. Sometimes we do get it right as a club. Respect the past, look to the future.

Village Street is within the stadium.

Calvert-Lewin was used as a headless chicken, totally isolated upfront, running the channels and having to run on to his own flicks, with no support whatsoever – our fullbacks never crossed the halfway line.

And we had an owner who was trying to sell the club, so would any footballer with a brain, seriously consider signing a contract, not knowing what direction the club was heading?

I'll probably still go to my usual haunts in town and for probably a few years, around County Road.

Old habits don't leave you easily and the New Lady is only 2 miles away from her Grandmother, overseeing her.

We are in a first wave where Large Language Models, its proper name, do return output that is of the quality of perhaps what a grad student researcher may produce. However, this is already a dated outcome tied specifically to what is available in the search universe. Do we all really believe expert opinion and analysis will remain out in the open to be trawled by the AI behemoth?

I don't want to get weird about it, I am genuinely interested in what this community thinks as it is the largest open group I can observe.

Now that AI is out there and developing almost daily, any attempts to minimise its access to content will fail. It will find a way around it?

The pace of change is quite startling and that's just in a very small sphere.

Not sure I'd put him in the same bracket as a past his best Kalvin Phillips, Paul?

It might be very hard to comprehend but my feelings are that it’s going to become completely inevitable one day

Lille wanted to re-sign him but he let his contract run down to get a better move.

He only made the England squad last year and a host of Premier League teams are after him? From what I've seen he's a tidy young footballer with potential to get better.

I wouldn't put him in the same bracket as Phillips, Grealish and Walcott etc. Who you rightly say we should be avoiding

I won't ask Michael to publish the follow ups, Part 2 about Beto and the comparison between Calvert-Lewin and Beto in Part 3, which showed how AI suggests they could work together.

He may well not be good enough, and we probably won't even sign him anyway as he will be wanting 6 figure wages as a free signing.

I wouldn't see it as a negative if he did sign though as he's still young, has been playing CL football and has room for improvement.

This player is 24 years old, won 4 England caps last year and has represented his country at all levels. He has decided to run down his contract so he can move on a free transfer.

He is a very good prospect, and has played for England as a holding midfielder. He has also played box-to-box and as an attacking midfielder.

By the way, I would rather have Andre back than some over-hyped — let's make some money on him by putting him in the England squad and raving about him before he kicked a ball in the game.

They done the same with Mainoo, hyped to the nines, he's this, he's that. First name on the team sheet. Any good? Um, nope! Over hyped? Um, yup!

I don't like AI because it will rule everything if we let it, and we won't know what's real or created by a computer. If you can take the criticising, then put them up.

You're a hard man to please!

I see you as the Simon Cowell of ToffeeWeb transfer rumours. No messing about - just press the buzzer and send them packing.

I'm not a hard man to please: Everton Champions League, win a cup, and Liverpool relegated! Not too much to ask… 😀

But Mainoo? I think he was arguably England's best player in their run to the Euros final last year. Found this season tough, but anyone would in the car crash that is Man Utd under Reptile Jim.

Yeah, I get what you're saying, but sometimes you have to give AI a wee bit of a hand. Eek!

I would fuck them all off no problems, and that Callow bastard along with any so called talent and the judges!👎👎👎

I understand she's a Blue. Well, in my mind at least.

When we played Chelsea in the final, a car pulled up close by where we were collecting our tickets.

Mike Parry of "talk shite" notoriety got out of one side to the jeers of many. Amanda Holden got out the other side wearing nothing but an Everton shirt. You could hear a pin drop.

She's a blue. Plenty of clips of her in an Everton top and this one.

Link

I hope it doesn't give you a sleepless night.

I remember being outside Silverspoons at that final, Colin. A gang of Chelsea supporters had hired an open top bus to take them to Wembley and drove past us. They were doing the Harry Enfield "Loads A Money" thing, waving bank notes at us, and got an Evertonian "welcome"!!

And Ian, a human apology for brushing past the op and going to the AI part, although we humans have already kicked that carcass, the debate that is.

While I agree the AI generated stuff will be out there while people borg up, it is a decent thing to question every step of the way.

Newcastle Utd agreed terms with Everton for Calvert-Lewin, last January, but the deal collapsed because they refused to meet his wage demands.

I think my personal feelings are related to those mysterious human traits that we call intuition and conscience.

In my profession, it is used on a daily basis, mostly for intelligence purposes.

I have a certification in AI and it greatly enhances automation and scalability.

But it still needs the human eye and analysis. It enhances analysts, but doesn't replace them.

Like football. Data and analysis speeds up research, but you can't beat watching a player.

Can't argue with your 'I don't like AI because it will rule everything if we let it, and we won't know what's real or created by a computer.'

You're right - if the line's already that blurry, maybe it's not worth adding to the noise as Sean Dyche would no doubt say. Not every AI-generated take needs its moment in the sun.

I suppose the next step to publishing this stuff is that, next season, AI will be managing Everton and giving post-match interviews in Scouse.

I have no issues with getting criticised, that's a healthy part of life, but I'll stop here before we're all debating AI like it's the VAR officials especially when the original post and its thoughts was one I didn't technically start!

Meanwhile, I'll send AI's findings to David Moyes… :)

“I have a certification in AI and it greatly enhances automation and scalability”

Carl Marx said something along these lines :

“There is no wealth without labour”

I am not a Marxist but I think this was certainly true when he wrote it.

Unfortunately the greedy people of this world have been trying to find ways of circumventing this fact since the abolition of slavery.

The Luddites saw the threat at the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and tried to do something about it. Sadly laws were past to silence them and many paid the ultimate price.

I think we are witnessing a revolution of even greater proportions.

Excuse the rant.

We just have to be careful how we use it and never take the human aspect out of the equation.

It's been around since the 1950s when it was first referred to in different guises.

Broadly speaking, there are 3 levels, depending on what model you look at.

We are currently at level 1 bordering on level 2. Level 3, when machines take over humans is years away, if it ever happens.

All it does now is predictive text, writing and automation.

I liken it to when a friend of mine once told me that mobile phones and devices (laptops) would never catch on. That was in the 90s.

I found the article interesting and had been looking forward to the rest.

It can't be any worse than the John Stones article and this definitely helped me look inside the minds of some of our fellow Evertonians, which is one of the things that this website is all about.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is no closer to agreeing a new deal with Everton Football Club.

Wow! You couldn't make it up. Or did they?

AI is an incredible tool but it likely will change human consciousness. Just as calculators have compromised math skills of users, and smart phones have explained declining test scores of young users, AI will damage some undiscerning users' critical thinking and research skills. Something in critically reviewing and compiling information is foundational to knowledge as a whole. It isn't just about the final product, the process is as important as the output.

I think we all see how AI could enhance life across the board but all technological revolutions have harmed people. The interaction with source material without its provenance specified is the most aggravating issue for me.

What responsibility lies with the presenter? Should we address the offering or simply use that as a starting point of a discussion without need to resolve the OP perspective?

It's Brave New Shite mate!

I think it's more a question whether DCL still want to stick with us. In his mind, I've given all in all these years thinking the next season will be better. But nothing really changed. Will this time be any different? If I were him, I might want to try a different team with a different play style just to prove myself. Work out or not, who knows? At least I can say "I've tried."

As a fan, I want him to be successful with us. But it's up to him whether he can trust Moyes will get the goals out of him.

My youngest son is constantly doing something else, the fad man, I call him. Visiting one of my older sons last summer, I said look at him, (youngest) his eyes and his head are already thinking about what he’s going to be doing next.

My oldest said, he’s a product of the tik-tok generation dad, I said what do you mean, he said they have a concentration span of about six seconds.

I started observing him and thought my older son, had described him perfectly.

Maybe I’m getting old but everything now seems to be a race!

Why debate it, when you can google it is what the youngsters tell me.

It ends conversations and arguments.

Providing your sources are reliable obviously.

I tend to go off memory, reading, listening and experience.

It's a really fascinating watch and there are plenty of talking points that I'd imagine TWers would get into.

Stu @226 - whether you want to believe him or not, he does talk about playing style, his love for his role under Carlo, the impact that other issues at the club have on players, and the pressure that playing for a failing Everton brings.

In the last 5 minutes he also talks about his contract situation. It seems fairly clear to me that he'll be moving on. He wants a winning environment and Everton hasn't been that for a while. I'd put money on him going abroad.