With Dominic Solanke setting the cost of mediocre strikers very high at €65m, who might be the replacement for a possibly outbound DCL?  Here’s a quick look at the likelier candidates — albeit I suspect two or three may be out of our league.  My conclusion (oft stated in threads) is that we're very unlikely to find anyone to score more than about 8 to 12 Premier League goals next season — although we may be able to get a player we can really develop. I've mentioned a couple — but it may make more sense to develop 16 to 19 year olds that some of those looked at below.

Toney (Brentford, 28)

With one year left on his contract, guesstimate value £35m. Strange that Spurs didn’t go for him ahead of Solanke. May yet go to Chelsea, Man Utd, Newcastle or even overseas Champions League interest and recent England recognition suggests he’s a better footballer than DCL – but possibly doesn’t get through the hard, isolated work like DCL does. Only got 4 in 17 last season too after his gambling indiscretion.

Would be surprising if he was interested in joining Everton. Would be equally surprising if we could afford him as DCL’s replacement – and given his age he will deteriorate in value from here.  We'd get 4 good seasons from him, I guess - during which time we could develop Chermiti and even younger players.  Would he come? Very much doubt it.  Probably much more likely to see out his contract with Brentford and then get a Champions League club on a free.

Abraham (Roma, 26)

With two years left on his contract, guesstimate value £20m.  His goalscoring record over the past 4 years strongly suggests that he would not outscore DCL in the current set up. Recent injury record concerning also.  Scored 1 in 8 last season, and 8 in 38 2022/23.

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Adebayo (Luton, 26)

A late developer with 10 in 27 in the Premier League last season. Before that, got 7 in 42 Championship games.  Very unclear whether he’s any good or not, or just benefited from a well-drilled Luton attack geared up around overloading the box for crosses from the likes of Doughty and Barkley.

Also scored his goals as a double act with Morris (below) so whether he’d be any good at DCL’s lone striker role is another matter.

Not sure when his contract expires but he only extended it in July 2023 – so guesstimate value £22m.  But could be up to about £30m if Luton don’t need to sell.  Seems a lot for a lower league journeyman with what might just be one flash in the pan season in the Premier League.

Morris (Luton, 28)

An even later developer than strike partner Adebayo – but probably the better footballer. Got 11 in 38 last season – again benefiting from Luton’s focus on attack (at the expense of defensive bodies behind the ball). 20 in 44 in the Championship the previous season – but before that he’s hitting returns of between 5 and 7 goals per season.

Again, whether he’d be any good at DCL’s lone striker role is uncertain.

Again, not sure when his contract expires but he only extended it in July 2023 – so guesstimate value £20m. 

Broja (Chelsea, 22)

A good footballer with good physical attributes who runs the channels well – but has not been much of a goal-scorer since the 2020/21 season on loan to Vitesse Arnhem when he got 10 in 30 games as a teenager. Showed real promise with 6 in 32 for Saints 2021/22 but done nothing since in an injury hit period.

Could definitely become better than DCL over time, but unlikely to make a big impact immediately. That said, he’s done nothing to suggest he could score more than about 10 Premier League goals per season.

Contract expires in 2028 but Chelsea may be keen to sell given their (weird) recent spending. Guesstimate cost £22m.

Fofana (Chelsea, 21)

An excellent prospect who plays, to my untrained eye, like an immature version of Darwin Nunez. Loads of pace and skill – scores a variety of goals – but hasn’t yet learned to do the boring things well.

Got 4 in 15 on loan for Burnley last season – and only 1 in 12 for Union Berlin on loan before January.

He’s got a lot of developing to do, but could become much better than DCL over time.  He’s also a different sort of striker to Chermiti too – and so they might both develop together as complimentary options.

Contract expires in 2029 but, like Broja, Chelsea may be keen to sell.  Guesstimate cost £25m.

Denkey (Cercle Brugge, 23)

Got 23 in 28 games after a very slow few seasons in Belgium. Now seems to have matured into a good striker. Was linked with Dortmund to replace the very different Fullkrug – but they’ve now got Guirassy from Stuttgart.

Contract to 2026 so guesstimate that the fee would be about £22m – although Brentford have just paid £30m for Brazilian Thiago from Club Brugge, so could be higher.

I could see him getting about 12 goals for us (and linking with Ndiaye well) and then possibly kicking on from there in future.

Dia (Salernitana, 27)

Salernitana got relegated to Serie B last season so may need to offload their star striker.  He only hit 4 in 17 last season, but got 16 in 33 2022/23.

Given his age (and the fact that he’s powerful but not a polished footballer) he’s not going to kick on and get better figures in the Premier League. So maybe an 8 to 12 goal per season type striker over a full season. Contract expires in 2026.  Guestimate value £15m. Not really sure what that adds to be honest. Just another Beto standard player with no room for improvement.

Brobbey (Ajax, 22)

I’m not sure why he seems rated so highly.

He got 18 in 30 for a poor Ajax side last season – and 13 in 32 the season before. But for context, ex-Newcastle flop Luuk de Jong got 29 goals in the Eredivisie last season at age 33. Brobbey was also a flop (albeit a young flop) at Leipzig earlier in his career. Can’t see him scoring more than 10 ish goals in the Premier League or really kicking on but could be wrong.

Contract at Ajax till 2027 so guesstimate fee would be about £30m. I think that would be money badly spent (will probably eat my words on that!).

Giminez (PSV, 23)

The Mexican scored 23 in 30 games for Feyenoord under new RS manager Arne Slot – after a debut season 2022/23 where he hit 15 in 32. Got more about him than Brobbey (and scored more too) hence being linked with the likes of Spurs, Arsenal and Spanish clubs this summer. The fee mentioned seems to be upwards of £40m which sounds about right given he’s contracted to PSV until 2027.

He'll be looking for Champions League football and seems a really unlikely signing for us.

Could see him getting about 15 goals in the Premier League – and maybe even kicking on to be more like a 15 to 20 goal striker.

Moffi (Nice, 25)

Nice paid £20m for him last summer and he repaid them with 11 in 30 games.  Given his age, he seems to have found his level as a fairly good (but nothing special) striker in Ligue 1. That probably translates to an 8 to 10 goal striker in the Premier League.

He’s under contract to 2027 so would probably cost about £20m or so – because Nice presumably won’t sell him for less than they bought him for.  Not even sure he's as good as Beto.

Conclusion

Personally, I wouldn't mind Broja or Fofana as loan with option to buy but it's a fairly unremarkable list of players. Can't see the point really in spending up to about £25m to £30m for players who are about the standard of Beto. And I can't really see any realistic prospect of the higher rated players like Toney and Giminez. Ultimately it may work best for all parties if DCL just sees out his contract for us this season, does a good job, earns himself a big move and we move on from there.

Reader Comments (6)

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Alan J Thompson
1 Posted 13/08/2024 at 05:50:16
Robert, do you not think that Beto and Chermiti, when both are fit, would be sufficient with Ndiaye alongside either or even Everton relying less on a lone striker as we play more through midfield and less long ball?

Given Dyche has more consideration for a strong defence, then Gana would look like the first midfielder on the team sheet and then a matter of how Lindstrøm, Iroegbunam, McNeil, Doucoure, Garner, Armstrong and Harrison make up the other three in midfield.

BBC are reporting that Man Utd are now interested in both Calvert-Lewin and Branthwaite although, given their injured young 18-year-old defender and the Bayern Munich pair reportedly undergoing medicals, you'd have to doubt any further interest in an injured Branthwaite this season.

And on the lighter side, has O'Brien played up front?

Eric Myles
2 Posted 13/08/2024 at 06:51:04
Alan J, we still have Keane who can do a job up front according to some?
Steve Shave
3 Posted 13/08/2024 at 07:32:10
Thanks Robert, I guess much depends on what is decided on DCL. That of course is determined by who shows an interest and a willingness to pay north of £20M, otherwise what is the point? May as well watch him run his contract down and hope he gets twitchy and signs.

I can see him signing a new deal around the time of the window closing if it is clear nobody is in for him. This is my favoured option as I like him a lot and think he is going to have a good season, hopefully with injury problems behind him.

The continued links with Tammy Abraham persist, could we see each player move in opposite directions? Broja is as you say, a different player altogether and is not going to slot in in DCLs place.

Personally, despite a few negative people on here, I think DCL is one of our better players. Come on, Dom, sign on the dotted line so we can focus on other areas.

I hope at the very least your article show's a few on here that we already have the best option that we can a) afford and b) would feasibly come to us. Let's get real and get behind him, in fact if a few more had already, I don't think we'd be in this situation.

Colin Glassar
4 Posted 13/08/2024 at 07:37:58
Keane “up front” would be akin to Jordan Pickford going up for a last minute corner to see if he could ruffle the opponents defence. A normally pointless exercise
Tony Abrahams
5 Posted 13/08/2024 at 07:41:49
Eddie from Arsenal, has usually impressed me when I’ve watched him Robert, but I haven’t seen enough of him to be honest, and I’m sure your scouting partner Sam, told me he his a completely different player.

Broja, looked like he could become a good player, but his development years have been very similar to a lot of the young Everton players, who never really kicked on, and although he his still only 22 (this surprised me) he definitely needs a bit of stability, to try and get his career going in the right direction.

It actually wouldn’t surprise me to see Everton sell Beto, and sign another striker with the money, in the next few weeks, because I’m sure Dyche, will be very reluctant to part with DCL.

Shane Corcoran
6 Posted 13/08/2024 at 07:55:29
Surprised you didn’t include Lukaku as a loan option.

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