Fans Comment
Stefan Tosev

Scenario
7 April 2006

I know that this cliché has been used in the past and will be used also in the future but I believe that this summer will be very important for David Moyes and Everton.  After years of being in the wrong part of the table, now it seems that we will finish in the top 10 in back-to-back seasons in Premiership.  This is progress regardless of what the moaners say; we may not play attractive football like Arsenal but we are an effective, well-organised side which is very tough to beat.

This season we have been very unfortunate in terms of the “Europe Effect”: referee’s decisions, luck, injuries and suspensions; we bought six or seven new players and they didn't settle until Christmas.  Since then, we enjoyed a good run and we can still qualify for Intertoto; however, I think this coming summer is the most important, which will determine whether we as a club will move forward or whether Moyes has peaked and the time has come to replace him.  Moreover, we will see if Everton are still a “selling club” or something has changed on and off the pitch and we can keep hold of our best players to build a competitive squad.

The departure of Yobo seems imminent, with Ferrari's future still undecided, Weir and Stubbs way past 30, Nige – 40... and farewell to Wright (I trust this was his last season with Everton); we face a complete overhaul of our defence.  Our goal-scoring problems are also well documented so we need at least four new players – goalkeeper, two centre-backs and forward with some pace, skills and eye for a goal, which leads me to the next point – our summer kitty.

We budgeted this season for at least top 10 place and qualifying for CL group stages.  As we failed on the first hurdle and were in the bottom half of the table, it was clear that we needed money to balance the books — that is why we sold Krøldrup and Bent.  Assuming that we will finish somewhere between 8th and 10th place, it should balance the books for the second year in a row and give us a realistic war chest of about £12M-£14M.  For this money we have to buy four players and build a squad potent enough to challenge for the top 6 next season.  I developed some scenarios — I know that some of you won’t like them but given our budget I think they are realistic ones.

Let’s start with the defence.  The best variant will be to keep Yobo and Ferrari, in this case I presume that Stubbs will be offered new contract and Weir will be released so we will need one more CB and a GK.  As these two will be our first team pair with Stubbs as a back up, Moyes could look for a young athletic CB who would mature in 2-3 years or take a gamble on player from the lower echelons.  I reckon that he could turn to Joleon Lescott for about £2.5M.

We need a GK and we will have a new one in in the summer.  The question is who it will be; I am not a fan of “future England No 1s” as, with exception of Paul Robinson, the others are injury- and mistake-prone.  The man I would love to see in royal blue is T Hildebrand from Stuttgart; his contract expires in 2007 and he hasn’t extended it yet and it’s clear that he will leave his club this summer.  His market value would be about £3M.  So we are left with £7M-£8M for a striker and eventually a midfielder.

Our midfield is the strongest we had for years, with Arteta and AvdM on the wings, Neville as a holding midfielder and Tiny Tim posing a goal treat; it looks pretty solid to me.  Let’s not forget that we will have Anderson Silva da Franca back from Malaga.  However, a very interesting player with pace, skills and flair is available for free this summer: he also has CL experience and could bring us valuable experience from his spell with Ajax — Steven Pienaar, he is only 24 and will not break the bank.

We should still have £6M-£7M for striker.  Next season we will have James Vaughan and Victor Anichebe claiming their stake for starting place and the James Gang as well.  For £6M-£7M we can buy decent striker — a lot of us would go for Andy Johnson, Robbie Keane or David Nugent as they are proven on the English scene but I would like Everton to sign V Bojinov from Fiorentina.  Currently he is second choice behind L Toni and is unhappy in Florence.  Strong, skilful with an eye for a goal, he is only 20 years old and has scored against all the big guns in Italy.  He is a Rooney-like type of forward who likes to take on defenders, make things happen and will be available for £6M-£7M.  My second choice would be V Iaquinta from Udinese Calcio — 27-year-old big forward proven in Serie A, who could fit the bill in Premiership.  From Serie A, good option for free is D Suazo, currently at Cagliari, a 27-year-old powerful forward who scored 16 goals so far in Serie A.

All in all, for £12M-£14M,we could look like this

4-4-2:      Hildebrand/Martyn
Hibbo Yobo Ferrari Valente
Arteta Cahill Neville AvdM
Beattie/Bojinov

4-5-1:      Hildebrand/Martyn
Hibbo Yobo Ferrari Valente
Neville/daSilva Arteta Cahill Pienaar AvdM
Beattie

With this squad we can challenge for CL places next season.  We will have only 4 new players and they can settle faster than the players we bought last year.

Next week, the worst and most likely scenario – without Yobo and Ferrari.
Stefan Tosev


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