I believe, however, that there is cause for optimism for two main reasons, neither of which involve the respecitve merits of our previous and current manager (done to death elsewhere).
Firstly, attaining 70+ points is within the capability of all four of the teams vying for 4th spot in my opinion. If we can find a great consistency in the games against the bottom 14 clubs then it is only in the head to heads that the other clubs have an opportunity to express their perceived superiority. (I know having better players usually leads to greater consistency against the lower teams but the point remains that we will start as favourites for all 28 of those games – just as Arsenal will.)
Secondly, I think we underestimate our players far too much and have not yet wrung the full value out of our squad at all. Liverpool had Suarez scoring 30 goals last year; Tottenham had Bale doing equally heroic things. Despite these extraordinary performances, we still finished between them in the table. The reason is that big parts of our teams are better than theirs.
We have the best defence hands down of any of our four mini-league teams. Bear in mind, I dont think our defence even played that well at times at the start of last season, it could potentially still improve... whereas Liverpool and Tottenham had mesmeric seasons from Agger and Vertonghen.
I also think our midfield is a lot better than anyone gives it credit for. The names like Gibson, Osman & Pienaar dont hold the same cachet as some of our rivals... yet we have seen over the entirety of last season that they can play with any of those teams – indeed bossing all three of our opponents at home.
Lastly, theres still so much value to be had out of our squad. We got to the points tally we did last year without Jelavic firing at all, with Mirallas and Gibson missing a huge chunk of the season, with Naismith barely contributing, with Barkley unused, with Oviedo unused. If our squad had been at full tilt last season, you might rightly be worried for how they would improve in this one... but even just one of those players bringing anything to this group will improve it.
On the contrary, Liverpool and Spurs were often at full tilt. There is no guarantee Suarez and Bale (if either are still there) will have anything like as good a season. There is no guarantee Agger and Gerrard will go for a whole season again (which is usually a rareity).
Last season, comparing our squads to those around us, we should have been nowhere near those teams. Yet football is not played on paper. The top 4 is a more difficult target in the mind that it actually is once the league starts. We were in and around it for the majority of last season, right in with all those teams. Theres no reason why we cant threaten it again, regardless of whoever the other teams are buying. Considering yourselves as challengers is half of the game.
We need to shake off this tag of the best of the bottom teams hitting the glass ceiling. Weve finished ahead of Liverpool twice now and have spanked Spurs countless times over recent seasons. We have earned the right to be recognised as one of the teams challenging for that 4th spot and I still believe that, as fans, we can still hope for it each season because it is never as far away as the media make it feel.
Reader Comments (35)
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2 Posted 11/08/2013 at 05:50:48
3 Posted 11/08/2013 at 05:55:39
We've finished above Liverpool but haven't dominated them in derbies. I'm not sure we've 'spanked' Spurs either.....? The reason we finish out of the top places is we are consistent but fail to beat the top teams home and away and don't go for the kill anywhere near as often as we should against the lesser teams.
We have a decet squad with an ambitious manager but my view is we will become more inconsistent under Martinez but will turnout some great wins not seen under Moyes.
So - I reckon 7th.....
4 Posted 11/08/2013 at 06:18:38
But 6th or 7th is where we will finish. My greatest hope is two-fold:
1. Beat "them" home and away.
2. Win silverware. The Cap One / Mickey Mouse Cup needs to be taken seriously this year IMHO. And we need to put every effort into the FA Cup.
5 Posted 11/08/2013 at 07:24:43
What have Liverpool done closed season that would suggest they can finish above us? If, and more probably, when Suarez leaves they will be weaker than last Season. Even if he stays he will be disruptive. It's win win for us.
Likewise, Bale needed a chiropractor in June, after carrying Spurs all season.
At present, we have lost no players, we have added a few decent signings. Jelavic not looking too bad per-season and Mirallas looking sharp too.
I think 5th with an outside crack at the top four is not unrealistic.
If we can play attacking football, but still keep our defensive qualities, I am very hopeful of a good campaign.
6 Posted 11/08/2013 at 07:23:51
That is why the majority (me included) do not want Jelavic sold as we all hope he can be the one despite if we're honest knowing his speed and hold up play is poor. That is why (me included) despite knowing it will not happen pray a miracle happens and Rooney returns.
The article is right in our defence and midfield is good but we do not have the quality attack options.
Moyes never addressed this. He bought strikers again and again but without the budget of the others we were never going to compete with their options. As such, he did annoy me, despite him having great points, as I think he used our budget as an excuse - the easy thing to do as you can't argue with that. BUT it's a kop out.
Martinez on the otherhand is not using excuses. He is changing the whole style we play, be it slowly or speedily is up to him but he knows we must do this to score more goals. Yes we wil be more vulnerable there will be problems in shirt term and by that I mean a few seasons but this is the philosophy he sees being successful and I agree with him.
Martinez has my 100% backing I do not see myself turning on him but I can see many others doing so and believe they're short sighted and woukd be daft to do so. People liking us to Swansea - no we have better players - better analogy is to liken that he is trying to get us like Arsenal and that is enough for me.
7 Posted 11/08/2013 at 08:13:39
I think that we will become a more popular side commercially and in the press due to a more attractive style of play and eventually be seen as a genuine threat for a CL spot. However, after spending years reading TW posts I reckon the knives will be out and the 'I never wanted him in the first place...' Posts will begin.
He was my first choice and having watched the documentary on Swansea last week It redoubled my confidence in the man. They are in the position they are because of him and the board that backed him. He put in place a style of play and a philosophy that has endured and made Swansea a top ten prem side from relative obscurity. I can't wait to see what he can do with a better group of players.
COYB!
8 Posted 11/08/2013 at 08:21:17
I hope but don't expect any more from Martinez than Moyes. if he can retain what Moyes had in terms of us being 'well hard' to beat then add a bit of sommat else going forward then more league points is a possibility.
There have been quite a few expecting a cup win - hens teeth outside the money clubs and the league cup is devalued. For me a top four place is the golden fleece. Everything else is secondary. The FA cup would be sweet, but let's hope our man breaks the glass ceiling, and moves us a step forward in terms of the league ..........a big ask.
9 Posted 11/08/2013 at 09:09:57
We've a good squad with potential for improvement as you say. Our biggest signings could just be keeping hold of Baines/Fellaini whilst others take risks with big-name signings from other leagues. And who is to say that Fellaini won't improve under Martinez ?
Better the devil you know.
10 Posted 11/08/2013 at 09:10:49
Against Spurs we made all the play at home and conceded off a freak deflected shot, we more than deserved the three points. We've beaten them at their place a couple of times in the recent past and perhaps should have again this season. My point is when we line up against Spurs I always expect a win and come out of the games considering us to be better. Similarly with Arsenal last season we should have definitely won the home leg had it not been for some bad refereeing and it was entirely even away from home.
Our team is just as good as some of those around us, the media and at time Moyes did not want to believe it, but the league table does not lie. If Spurs and Liverpool are considered pushing for fourth spot then we have every right to say that it is our target as well.
11 Posted 11/08/2013 at 08:56:49
I'm a bit worried to be honest as I feel they are our two most dangerous players and the transfer market is a bit of a lottery. If the money is spent like the Rooney money then everything will be fine; if it's spent like the Lescott money I'd be less confident.
Personally I think Martinez has got a really tough job ahead of him. Changing the style of play whilst keeping the squad happy won't be easy. What he really needs is a bit of luck in the first few games of the season. If we're struggling for results then there'll be a level of pressure he won't be used to from Wigan.
On the plus side he has some really good players, albeit ones who struggle to score too many goals. Also I would have thought the players would enjoy a change in style of play (as long as the results come). If he can hit upon a winning formula with the squad fairly quickly then maybe we can get the CL place that some are talking of.
For me although I hope everything goes according to plan, I think it might be a difficult season adjusting to a new style of play, and new personnel, whilst at the same time trying to find solutions to the same problems that Moyes had to deal with throughout his era (not scoring enough goals, defensive mistakes, not turning up in big matches etc...)
I think it'll be a success if we can make progress in terms of our style of play, i.e. improve our passing and ability to keep the ball, and score more goals without conceding too many. I know that might sound a bit pessimistic, but I think his job is a bit more difficult than people make out.
13 Posted 11/08/2013 at 10:10:18
It is essential that we retain our best players.
14 Posted 11/08/2013 at 10:14:54
Only yesterday that legend Rio was bleating afer his testimonial that this is going to be the hardest league to win with Spurs and the Shite battling too, I mean we finished above them the last two years, we have added to that same squad (but not enough) and got shut of a couple liabilities, meanwhile the shite are never off the back pages for all the wrong reasons, lets just go about our business and bollocks to the outsiders, these are the same people queuing up to slaughter a certain manager if it starts to go tits up after years of bigging him up.
15 Posted 11/08/2013 at 10:09:43
The inability to grasp the nettle in so many games not just last season but year upon year nails that as a Moyes patent.
Changing that, as RM must to take us forward, is as likely to cause upset as it is win something but the fact the "thankful for small mercies" ideology is being broken is what excites me.
Deal the cards ... I can't wait.
16 Posted 11/08/2013 at 10:52:29
I think in the long term Distin needs replacing effectively but I believe we have the best full backs between us Liverpool Spurs and Arsenal and Jagielka is the top central defender as well.
17 Posted 11/08/2013 at 09:24:04
If you look at the form they were on last year at the end, they were fantastic. We matched them in two games but we've bought Kone and they're going to get Suarez. Plus Walcott gets better every year.
If Martinez got £25 for a striker we'd only be on a par with them
18 Posted 11/08/2013 at 11:18:23
We still look very short in the middle of the park and if we are to even challenge for 4th then one or more of our strikers is going to have to step up to the plate in a big way.
19 Posted 11/08/2013 at 11:22:55
With Mirallas, Barkley, Del Boy, Jelavic, Kone we have players who want to score goals. This is an improvement upon last season and I'm hopeful Martinez will find his best strike partnerships quickly.
We need to keep Baines, he is simply the best footballer we have, his performances are consistently high, yes Oviedo has looked great pre-season but he hasn't played week in week out.
I think we need to keep Fellaini, I'm not totally convinced he suits our new system yet but as a defensive midfielder he is top quality. I don't agree with opinion he's lazy or can't be arsed. He loves a battle and without him we're weaker in the centre of the pitch. If he does go then Martinez needs to bring at least one player who walks straight into the starting eleven.
20 Posted 11/08/2013 at 11:34:39
I think that backs up my point doesn't it?
21 Posted 11/08/2013 at 12:01:04
If we lose those two, we will probably bring in 3 or 4 new players, which will ultimately disrupt the understanding our first team have for at least a season.
I wouldn't underestimate how much of an advantage this can give you, even if you are playing against a team who has invested many more millions. (QPR being a case in point)
It will be very interesting to see the spending table at the end of this window, which may see records set by many clubs for spending on players.
Up to now, it looks like less than half the new T.V. money was Roberto's budget - an absolute pittance.
22 Posted 11/08/2013 at 13:44:54
23 Posted 11/08/2013 at 14:18:48
For Everton to remain in the top tier of the Premier League, selling our best players is a backward step.
24 Posted 11/08/2013 at 15:53:12
So...with our summer outlay so far amounting, at a most conservative estimate to include wages etc, to somewhere between £8-10m, the question again arises: where is the money Bill? We should comfortably be able to add another midfielder before the window closes without needing to sell. We have been outspent not just by the traditional moneybags teams but by most others as well. Gibson going off injured just now only makes this problem more critical.
3 weeks or so left of the window. By rights there should be money for at least two new signings, which by the looks of today's performance and Gibson's fragility are desperately needed. Get on with it BK and RM!
25 Posted 11/08/2013 at 15:45:44
26 Posted 11/08/2013 at 16:38:15
Until we start turning them over at their places we are also rans. Dress it up as much as you like but that is that.
27 Posted 11/08/2013 at 17:18:48
28 Posted 11/08/2013 at 20:33:56
29 Posted 11/08/2013 at 23:54:01
Clive we are not an ageing team, 30 is not old. Only Distin really needs replacing in the immediate future. Just because Kone and Alcaraz have suddenly come into beef up the squad hasn't suddenly made us an old team.
Coleman, Baines, Stones, Oviedo, Gibson, Fellaini, Mirallas, Barkley, Jelavic, Anichebe, Vellios, Naismith Deulofeu (all people who are not old)
Pienaar Osman Jagielka Alcaraz Kone Howard (players in or towards the end of their peak years)
Distin (player in need of replacement)
That is not the makeup of an ageing team, that is just a balanced squad the same as every other one in the league.
30 Posted 12/08/2013 at 01:01:34
If Martinez can change that so we do start coming away from their grounds with three points we can go to being contenders for being the best, rather than best of the rest, providing we are as consistent as they are against the rest of the league.
31 Posted 12/08/2013 at 01:13:32
32 Posted 12/08/2013 at 04:40:31
"Last season, comparing our squads to those around us, we should have been nowhere near those teams."
But, in the paragraphs before, you state:
"We have the best defence hands down of any of our four mini-league teams."
And:
"I also think our midfield is a lot better than anyone gives it credit for. The names like Gibson, Osman & Pienaar don't hold the same cachet as some of our rivals'... yet we have seen over the entirety of last season that they can play with any of those teams – indeed bossing all three of our opponents at home."
Bit of a contradiction, don't you think?
But, as you state, there is no reason why we shouldn't be up there (AGAIN), but that will be down to RM's tactics, style of play, and (obviously) results.
I will reserve judgement until 4:45pm (approx) on Saturday, as I ain't going to read too much into our pre-season. Never have; never will.
33 Posted 12/08/2013 at 12:33:24
Quite right. A big 6'-5" Belgium with fuzzy hair who is probably on his way.
From what I've seen so far, nothing can be tied to last season. We have a new manager with a new football philosophy and a whole bunch of square pegs in round holes.
He doesn't have the funds to wipe the slate clean and start from scratch but I'm sure he'll slip, slide and shuffle our club into a new successful era. Normally it would require lots of time and patience but the modern Premiership doesn't allow for such things.
How he will manage it I just don't know. Pre-season has certainly not filled me with optimism but he sees things we don't and I will continue to support his judgement.
34 Posted 12/08/2013 at 22:39:24
I accept your point about us not being an aging team, but I think bringing in 30 year olds is short sighted. also it is frightening how nearly all other clubs have strengthened compared to us. The £6M on Kone has obviously emptied the pot. Selling our best players every few years will ultimately lead to disaster. Where the hell does all our money disappear to? Everyone else is splashing the TV money. Where's ours gone?
35 Posted 12/08/2013 at 23:09:40
36 Posted 14/08/2013 at 23:20:22
I just hope we can get another couple through the door,then I feel we will be alright!
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1 Posted 11/08/2013 at 04:47:21
But when you see teams like Cardiff splashing upwards of £25 million on 3 players, you wonder what might have been if Everton had similar amounts to spend on transfers, even after accepting that their wage bill is much lower than Everton's. Anyway, as David Moyes might have said, we will go with what we have got, and hoping that we are in for a very pleasant surprise.