Everyone from fans to the media seem to think Everton have an outside chance of achieving a Champions League place this season. This has been based on how our season has gone so far in terms of performances, points gained, and how other teams are faring.

A total haul of I think at least 71 points has been the target set, although I am open to correction on this. Some seasons, a points total in the 60s has achieved CL qualification but I think aiming for 71 should guarantee a place. With 41 points already in the bag, we need another 30 points to reach the target.

While you can say that eight wins and six draws would do it, we still have to play all the other teams in the top six who are competing for a CL place. That’s Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs and Man Utd. With head-to-heads being so crucial, considering the number of teams competing, you would think that we will probably need eight or nine wins at least from our remaining games, plus other teams’ head -to-heads going our way, to nail down 4th place.

We will also have to play solid Newcastle Utd and Southampton teams. Then, with the gap from Aston Villa in 11th to Cardiff City in 18th, only 5 points at present, there are going to be a lot more teams scrapping against relegation than usual this year. This will make the games against the so-called lesser teams harder than ever.

Now you can read all of the above and say, "So what?" Our ambition every year looking forward should be Champions League qualification. You can say that we have been competing for the European spots regularly in recent years... what is so different this year?

Well... my answer is that, this season, our chances of Champions League qualification have never seemed so realistic, even if we are still an outside bet. Our style of play, and consistency of performance, have been at their best more so this season than in recent years. CL qualification suddenly is still possible, 21 games into the season, and not just a pipe dream in August that has faded badly by or soon after Christmas.

With the greater level of expectation than previously at this stage of the season, I am suddenly looking at our remaining fixtures in a way that I never would have before. Instead of just hoping on a week-by-week basis that we do better than those in 5th, 6th and 7th, I am now including fixtures against those in 2nd, 3rd and 4th. I have gone from hoping that we get a couple of draws and good performances against the top four, to expecting that we will need – yes need – to be winning those games in order to stay competing with the leading pack as the season draws to a close.

It is exciting to be thinking in these terms, and at times very enjoyable. It has also been very interesting to think about how this is the norm at regularly placed big four teams. This is what Arsenal fans, or Man Utd fans, or Chelsea fans are used to. This is the level of consistency and expectation they have all the way through each season.

While we are a million miles away from these regular top four clubs in terms of squad depth and finances, we have made huge progress this season. (I do genuinely think that the word ’transition’ doesn’t apply at all at this stage of the season, such has the seamless way in which Martinez and his style have settled in, following 11 seasons under the previous manager.) I do think that with the faith the Board has shown in Martinez and the huge increase in revenue that this season will provide from TV deals, transfer profits, increased attendances and extra media coverage, we are in a great position to continue with this progress.

I think that the gap between us and some of the the other Champions League hopefuls is getting smaller and I do think that we are in a great position to continue with this level of consistency and expectation into next season.

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Patrick Murphy
1 Posted 16/01/2014 at 22:06:52
The gap is getting smaller as regards points between the top 6 but the number of points required to achieve CL will be a lot higher than we gained in 04-05.

If the current 4th-placed team and those above them average 2 points a game between now and the end of the season, that will mean circa 76 points to get 4th spot. Of course, we don't know how the results will go but it's a staggering figure which may be too much for our squad... but at least we'll attempt to give it a good go — even if we do miss out in the end.

Peter Laing
2 Posted 16/01/2014 at 22:05:25
The board need to release the funds for Martinez to recruit a striker to assist Lukaku, always a difficult prospect in January but if we are going to challenge for the top 4 in the second half of the season we need additional firepower.

We have exceeded all expectations to date with a solidity at the back that is the envy of most, a style of possession that is both very easy on the eye and entertaining to boot, and a one for all and all for one mentality that is a joy to behold. Recruit a striker and I have every confidence that we could achieve the promised land of the Champions League, fail to do so and we may choke.

Gavin McGarvey
3 Posted 16/01/2014 at 21:55:51
I think it will be tough to make CL this season. That's not to say we haven't made progress. I'm really pleased with rm so far and fingers crossed we can edge out the big spenders and make Europe. We might give ourselves a chance of CL if we can hold the results together until Ross Barkley and Gerard Deulofeu make it back from injury. Still it's a bit of a long shot. It was about this time last year we started to slip back. Let's see if we can push the teams around us a bit harder this season this year. Who knows, maybe they'll start to slip up.
Coyb
Kevin Tully
4 Posted 16/01/2014 at 23:06:43
A win against WBA on Monday night will give us exactly a 2 points per game average (44 from 22 played) with 16 games to go.

I am sure it is not beyond this team or manager to keep that going for the last 16 games, especially as we have suffered from having to make 5 or 6 changes in some games because of injury.

We have been missing one of our most potent weapons all season don't forget. Leighton Baines's form has definitely been suffering due that ginger prick, and a broken toe on top of that. He will have a point to prove to everyone if he signs a new contract.

If McGeady and a decent striker can give us some fresh impetus, we can do it!

Andrew James
5 Posted 16/01/2014 at 23:17:23
It's funny because I expected a top 10 finish this season due to transitional reasons. Yet RM has raised expectations on and off the pitch so that I have been thinking we should challenge for the Top 4.

Unfortunately, while I know the boys will still go for it, the recent injury crisis could be our undoing. Ross and Gerard are, for me, the two players who enable us to beat or at least give the best a good game. Coleman has been awesome as have McCarthy and Barry. But there are too many players who have not quite done it or are getting older. This makes me think we could struggle in the coming months.

So I am going to sit back and hope we finish Top 6, beat a few more of the top teams, are pleasing on the eye and fun to watch. I think the lack of squad depth will ensure we won't finish 4th. But to be honest we do not have the squad to cope with Champions League matches. Not now but perhaps in a season or two.
However, who knows? We are in the Cup with a manager who holds it and knows how to attack and put sides away which is perfect cup form. It's about time we won that thing again!

Dennis Ng
6 Posted 16/01/2014 at 23:24:08
In general, I believe that 2 points per game will bring us to UCL. Win at home, at least a draw away, that's what I use as a benchmark to see how high we can go. Of course, that's an aggressive benchmark, more for the title run. The only time I see 76 as 4th, which is exactly 2 points per game is back in 04, when rs has 76. You can certainly take that 76 will guarantee UCL (I stopped at 04 when I had to puke cos I saw the devil).

I think 71 should net us close to UCL, though we might miss it by a bit if the top 7 consistently pull away from the rest. I doubt that though because top 7 do have to play one another, and there will be upsets. Hopefully not us. If we win all our home games, we'll definitely have a shout for UCL. And they include Arsenal, MU, ManC.

Si Cooper
7 Posted 17/01/2014 at 01:42:18
Really we need to wait and see whether we are stronger at the end of this transfer window than we were at the start. As things stand we are probably pretty even (McGeady potentially freeing up Mirallas for striking duties), but that means we are still susceptible if we have a relatively small number of injuries.

I'll feel a lot more secure in our ability to stay competitive if the manager is able to come good on his apparent intent to add to the squad in areas that haven't been addressed yet this January.

Chris Davies
8 Posted 17/01/2014 at 02:25:30
I think this season is unique, in that, there are 8 sides at the top (who are a lot better than the rest), and the the other lot, who are 'fodder'.., will surrender points to all of the top sides.

We only need to continue to beat the 'poorer' sides, and we'll stay in it..

I mean seriously,.. Are Chelsea gonna lose to WBA at home?? Or Man City??

It's no question, whereas, with Everton, you're never sure (shrugs shoulders)..

I apologise for the negativity, but this is the way I see it. 4th is the stars, 5th'll be about right

Darryl Ritchie
9 Posted 17/01/2014 at 05:33:15
The toffees have consistently exceeded my expectations.
Matt Traynor
10 Posted 17/01/2014 at 05:49:20
Chris Davies #293, but for a seriously dodgy refereeing decision in injury time, WBA would've won at Chelsea.

In general though, I agree with the caution. We've had injuries which affects a small squad. Of more interest to me is movements in this transfer window. I don't care about "January's not a good time to buy" arguments, you'll see other teams strengthening. And a window of McGeady and possibly Jones will not, to my mind, be a "good window" and will yet again highlight the board's failure to give the manager the support needed.

We can just about forgive not backing OFM last January as they probably knew he was off.

Sam Hoare
11 Posted 17/01/2014 at 06:56:05
Agree with Patrick that the 4th team this year will have more than 71 points. Such a gulf between top 8 and other sides that I think 75/76 points may be needed.

I keep sort of waiting for the wheels to fall off but it's not happened yet. Trouble is that there is barely any room for error and a run of losses or even draws will see us fall off the pace very quickly. I do think we need to bring in a couple more players to pep the squad up. It's no coincidence that Mirallas had his best game of the season on the day McGeady was unveiled.

Chris Morris
12 Posted 17/01/2014 at 07:29:03
I have to disagree with the opening line of this article because I don't believe the media think we have an outside chance of CL qualification.

We never get mentioned in the debate about qualification and our squad is as good if not better than those teams around us. Even when we were 4th we never got included in BT Sport's CL debate, MOTD is a complete waste of time, Sky are quickly changing their allegiance to the blue side of Manchester and newspapers omit us completely.

But so what??? We're Everton and we'll show them

Mike Green
13 Posted 17/01/2014 at 07:27:42
Without stating the obvious providing we put away lower league teams like we did Norwich on Saturday and fight for our lives in the '6-pointers' against the top 6 we'll be right in there.

It looks increasingly like City will win the league, with Arsenal and Chelsea fighting out second and third, leaving us, Liverpool, Spurs and possible Man Utd and Newcastle fighting out fourth. The top three have big squads, great depth but also commitments such as CL which don't affect us.

If you looks at our performances we are a better team than Liverpool, Spurs, Man Utd and Newcastle and for every big game we've got (from memory Man Utd, Spurs, City and Arsenal at home, Chelsea and Liverpool away) our competition have also got just as many where one or both have to drop points.

I think the arrival of McGeady will be a timely boost and hope Martinez has someone lined up for Jelly rather than letting him go on compassionate grounds (World Cup) and the deal was too good to refuse. He's said decisions would only be made on footballing grounds so - one striker out.....one better striker in? If this is the case and he gets it right then we have as good a chance of gate crashing the top 4 as finishing 6th.

Martinez has proven that he can cope with the challenges of having a small squad to call on with aplomb this season, and the players have stood up to be counted. What we need to do is carry on but also continue believing we do deserve to sit at the the top table, we can beat any team in the league and when we play any fixture in the league we are there for the 3 points, which we believe are ours.

A massive step towards this would be taking all three points at Anfield a week on Tuesday. That would be a huge statement by the team and would tear down a psychological barrier that's been built by the media, with our help, over the past twenty years.

All you have to do is look at our first half performance against Arsenal to say we not only can make the Champions League places - we deserve one of the Champions League places. We players just need to get their heads down, keep going, trust in the manager and each other and the rewards will come. You never know, we could even make and appearance at Wembley too.....

Step 1: Beat WBA on Monday night.

Mike Green
14 Posted 17/01/2014 at 07:54:07
For 'We players' read 'The players' - fortunately for us I am not Jelavics replacement :D
Steve Carter
15 Posted 17/01/2014 at 08:39:43
We lost at home to Sunderland. Teams who qualify for the CL don't and won't do that. Sorry.
Mike Gwyer
16 Posted 17/01/2014 at 08:25:29
Well, let's go to West Brom first, who will probably seem like a team of giants against us – I've a feeling we are going to need 3 points just to stay in touch with horse face and his team of minions.

Have to say to Mike Green, #317, that winning at Anfield don't happen too often; however, if we can avoid allowing them to score within the first 30 seconds (which is what most EPL teams seem to be doing) then we can give them a game of football.

Also, I agree that you can feel that supporters want this to happen, you can feel the anxiety at GP. It will be good for Everton to have a few games away from home where our type of football will allow us to dominate teams.

Kevin Tully
17 Posted 17/01/2014 at 08:52:17
Steve Carter - you forgot to mention the loss at home to Sunderland was only our second defeat of the season. Did you actually watch that game?

Arsenal got beat 3-1 on the opening day by Villa, so going by your logic, they have no chance of winning the title.

Stupid post.

Mike Gwyer
18 Posted 17/01/2014 at 08:51:52

Steve Carter -

Just to level it out, teams who beat Chelsea (home or away), take 3 points at Old Trafford and have more possession of the ball at the Emirates will probably qualify for the CL. Just saying.

Paul Mackie
19 Posted 17/01/2014 at 08:47:14
It's hard to look at our position in the table at the moment and not look back to last season. A year ago we were roughly where we are now in terms of league position (our play however is light years ahead) and failed to strengthen sufficiently in January. Our already paper thin squad was stretched to breaking point and we tailed off badly towards the end of the season.

I don't think that will happen this year for 2 reasons.

1) We've brought in McGeady and I wouldn't be surprised if we pull 1 more new face out of the bag too. On top of that we have Deulofeu coming back soon which will be "like a new signing" ;)

2) Last year we had a squad who most likely knew that their boss was leaving at the end of the season and who probably didn't really believe that the CL was within their grasp. Contrast that with what Martinez has been telling them.

So yes, I think it's possible for us to get that CL spot. The RS are relying on one player, Man Utd are utter gash this year, Spurs still aren't clicking, and Arsenal are due to implode any day now.

Simon Hermansen
20 Posted 17/01/2014 at 08:51:01
Agree that expectations of Top 4 haven't been so realistic for a long time.

In recent years its been a case of setting the stall out to do just enough to finish top 6 or 7, with the aim of (lets face it) making sure we get a decent share of the Sky money and keeping our heads above water for another year. Also keeping the majority of the fan base happy that we've had another 'plucky' season of over acheiving and happy to renew their season tickets.

Now we have a manager who has looked at the squad, added to it in the right way, and said to them that if they're capable of finishing high up the EPL every year what could they acheive if the caution and pragmatism is removed and real belief and positive play is installed.

And its worked (for now) and I think we all need to keep believing - players, fans, all associated with the club - and see where the adventure goes. After all the RM effect on the club may have many ramifications - not just a high finish (possibly top 4 and CL) but also make us more attractive to that elusive buyer Bills been searching high and low for, then we can really get moving ...

James Hughes
21 Posted 17/01/2014 at 09:41:57
Expectations:

Mine is 3rd or higher because we are Everton and I remember when winning things was the norm and I had a season ticket for Wembley.

Also being paranoid I think if we finish 4th we will be refereed out of the game like last time...

Kevin Gillen
22 Posted 17/01/2014 at 10:14:12
Three points on Monday would be welcome! Everton seem to me to be a well run club, to be actually up there with Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City at this stage of the season is a huge achievement. We shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves but Everton have traditionally been stronger at the end of the season than at the beginning. We also seem to have done well against the top teams this season without getting the points we deserve.

Our biggest problem seems to be against these middling teams like WBA, we draw far too many games we should win. We've drawn eight games this season, only WBA have drawn more. I've always said that the other top teams really have to give it away rather than it being within our power to gain CL Qualification.

I think finally Man City and Chelsea are beginning to realise their potential but Arsenal, Liverpool, Man United and Spurs are all there for the taking this year. I also don't think the answer is out there in the transfer market. Get the players fit! Gibson, Alcaraz and Deulofeu could make a huge contribution.

Buying a second-rate striker like Jones from Stoke won't make any difference, I'd rather they gave Vellios a chance than spent money on him. Just keep Lukaku fit and firing. I think the derby on the 28th will define our season, getting a win there would really kickstart the rest of our season.

Keith Young
23 Posted 17/01/2014 at 10:09:41
Chris (#316) and many other ToffeeWeb contributors complain about the way the Media treats us with neglect etc. Whilst we love our Club as "born Evertonians", the rest of the world audience (creating huge TV demand) doesn't. This is because Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City, Liverpool, Spurs & Arsenal have made huge investments since the creation of the BPL. Everton invested nothing so why should all those people who make their living in the English football world include us?? With BK's showbiz background, we get the pantomime role of the underdog which was eagerly grasped by OFM.

The present squad will acquire Legendary status in the Champions League knowing it is not good enough to win the FA Cup (though something better than nothing) as we can see Wigan are not on the Media radar even as Cup holders. The way out is to progress in the Champions League with RM's guidance since he actually understands our dreams and heritage.

James Stewart
24 Posted 17/01/2014 at 11:14:05
To make the top four we need another striker or Lukaku hits 20 goals.

And Ross Barkley and Gerard Deulofeu need to be fit without them for too long we won't make it.

Mike Green
25 Posted 17/01/2014 at 11:08:34
Keith #345 — it's a bit of a chicken / egg situation.

I have to say in the past few weeks there's been something about the us in the Sports pages of The Times probably every other day, taking up at least half of Tony Barrett's column inches usually reserved for his daily Report from Anfield. We only used to get a lengthy mention when they wanted to do a piece on the Derby or The Moyes Miracle.

Is that because were doing better? Is it because Martinez is more media friendly / savvy than Moyes? Is it down to a new approach from the clubs Communications department? Because there's more 'news' emanating from Goodison these days?

Probably a bit of any of the above but, either way, I can feel it happening.

Let's face it, the media are whores — get ourselves into the CL and get more coverage all round, with which it comes income, attention, and possibly even investment.

I think it's officially known as 'The Gravy Train'....

Patrick Murphy
26 Posted 17/01/2014 at 11:21:55
Kevin. while I hope we win at the Dark Side, I wouldn't want an Anfield derby to define our season. Six league wins in fifty years at that ground suggests to me that we shouldn't allow it to define our season.

Obviously if we win there, it will be a tremendous boost to the team and the supporters... but, if we don't, then I wouldn't want all of the gloom and doom merchants coming out and saying that we've blown it with 45 points left to play for.

Chris Morris
27 Posted 17/01/2014 at 11:39:20
I want us to win everything and I don't care how laughable people think it is. The players, manager, backroom staff etc should all feel the same way.
Tony J Williams
28 Posted 17/01/2014 at 11:54:50
Steve 324, teams who lose their keeper to a red card early on frequently lose games to "lesser" oppositions.

Just saying like!

Anthony Lamb
29 Posted 17/01/2014 at 13:26:02
Some really interesting points here but do we also not need to be a little more realistic regarding the Champions League? As things stand, do we really think that the Everton squad is capable of achieving on the Premier League, FA Cup, Carling Cup and then Champions league fronts at one and the same time? Is the wonderful optimism created by Mr Martinez not punctured a little for many of us by news such as the injuries and absences of Barkley, Deulofeu, Baines etc?

Whatever we say about "those who reside across the park", let us not forget that they were without possibly the most effective footballer in the world at the moment for a prolonged period of their season, then lose his free-scoring partner for another prolonged period, together with the further loss of their ageing but still effective captain, and yet still are one of the favourites for a top four finish with some people saying they could be a dark horse for the title itself (God forbid).

The point here is that, even with their extensive squad compared to Everton (and despite their bemoaning the fact that they are "thin" compared to Man City etc), they are able to achieve this because, unlike the big three (plus, for the time being, Man Utd), they have no Champions League demands to stretch them further, as those games would demand their strongest teams, unlike the current demands of the FA Cup and Carling Cup.

Of course we should strive to get as far as possible in whatever competition we are in (how could we lose to Fulham?) but we do not want a poisoned chalice at this stage of development. Cement the squad further during the next two or three seasons; hopefully win a cup competition to have something tangible to show for our efforts and signs of development; perhaps gain experience of unfamiliar opposition in Europe even be it in the "mickey-mouse" Europa League; further reduce the age profile of the squad and enhance the quality of players in key positions; and then we may genuinely aspire to Champions league qualification without compromising our ability to perform in it and to also function effectively in the bread and butter of the Premier League.

Kevin Tully
30 Posted 17/01/2014 at 13:55:39
Anthony - my guess is we will have to compete in Europe next season anyway, either in the shitty Europa League, or the possible £20m payday of the Champions League.

I think Man City will win the Carling Cup, and one of the top 4 in the PL will win the FA Cup.

That leaves a Europa League spot possibly open down to 7th place, depending on beaten finalists in the FA Cup.

I only hope Man Utd fans can bring themselves to watch Channel 5 on a Thursday!

Sam Hoare
31 Posted 17/01/2014 at 14:08:10
Agreed Kevin. And Europa League may make it very hard to push for CL again next season. Just look at Newcastle's dip in form last season with the European distraction.

The truth is we may not have as a good a chance to get into the CL as we do this year for the next few years or so as Man Utd will surely get better and Spurs too next season. On the other hand, if RS don't make CL this season then surely Ratface will leave and they could well struggle a bit.

Harold Matthews
32 Posted 17/01/2014 at 13:36:22
I never look further forward than the next match and I certainly don't dwell on what position we might finish. We're enjoying a wonderful run and I'm not about to burden the team with the extra weight of expectation. As Martinez pointed out, "Putting yourself in a position where you have something to lose is not wise. It cost Everton when they were beaten by Wigan in the Cup."
Simon Temme
33 Posted 17/01/2014 at 14:33:43
We could also ask ourselves; When does hope become expectation?

In RM we have a manager that has provided the hope (He reminds me a little of Brian Clough in his ability to aid player development and confidence combined with a clear insight into how he wants his team to play) and rightfully increased our expectation back to the levels of what an Everton team should be aspiring to in all competitions.

If he can achieve CL qualification this season then that would be something to behold.

One thing seems certain however is that Everton are heading back to where we belong.......in the mix, looking to cement our reputation and history as one of the biggest clubs in English football.

Andrew Ellams
34 Posted 17/01/2014 at 15:08:09
The Sunderland game was a strange day at the office. Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool have lost home games they shouldn't this season.

The important thing is those points were recouped in games were 1 point would be no bad thing. We are well on our way to a record points tally in a Premier League season and have the equal best defensive record. Two stats that nobody was predicting in June, even the optimists amongst us.

Steavey Buckley
35 Posted 17/01/2014 at 16:28:10
The Europa league is the equivalent of being sent to football's purgatory - not knowing why really there, but there all the same. Last season, Spurs lost momentum finishing 4th in the premier league due to the Europa in the latter stages when Spurs lost key players such as Bale.

The Europa does not financially benefit clubs such as Everton, because there is no extra cash that clubs get with the champions league, to offset the need to strengthen the squad at the beginning of the season.

English clubs in the Europa with an important game on a Sunday away, may find themselves playing a game near a former Gulag in Russia or some other place way off the map where Easy Jet don't go near to fly to.

The old uafe knock out competition was far better. Clubs played on a Tuesday or Wednesday, against some very good sides that did quite qualify for the CL. Now because what little TV money there is, forces clubs to play on a Thursday.

If Everton do find themselves in the Europa, it may be a good idea to the let the under 21 academy represent Everton to get some further experience in their young footballing lives..

Keith Young
36 Posted 17/01/2014 at 18:54:40
Mike (#345) — you're right: things are getting better in The Times, Telegraph, Mail; and Guardian but not yet in the red top tabloids. However, the way our results have been going, the way we are playing and RM's cool handling of the media is so exciting that we are back to dreaming of .maybe.....

This is a great thread Steavey #459 your analysis is terrific. Please God we get 4th or above but if it is to be the Europa then the 21 team it is.

Jimmy Sørheim
38 Posted 18/01/2014 at 14:34:39
I think we are in a bubble right now, if we can get a striker that scores or not. It all depends on RM. Who will he get if anyone? I can only see him getting a loan, and to buy a striker in January is usually a mistake unless it is a top striker.

Kenwyne Jones could be a decent back-up but I think Robbie needs to aim higher. The smell of Kone from this summer fills me with fear, and yet I see a solution in the loan market yet again. I agree that this is the most important choice for us getting CL, and it would be wise to let the scouts search for as long as possible and then decide.

RM has made a small mess for himself by thinking only of Jelavic and what he wants. We are now left with a hole in the squad that needs to be filled by a striker that can give us the goals we need for CL.

Lukaku has been in a bad run and it will likely go on so it is crucial that RM does a good job here. Can he fill the void left by Jelavic? One thing I know for certain, we will not get CL unless we get replacements for Kone and Jelavic.

This transfer vindow has become more nervy then I had thought.

Dean Adams
40 Posted 19/01/2014 at 19:44:41
It is sometimes difficult to understand that some of our fans think so negatively of our current manager's tactics in the transfer market. This man is so astute that he spins the media into believing any old crap, allowing him a free run at his real targets. He is nothing short of genius in this regard and don't forget he told us clearly that he would finish the window stronger than at the start. Get believing.

As with his tactics on and off the pitch, many just fail to believe we are capable. The media have told us we can't do it in the past and this season they say little or nothing about us. Well, lads and lasses, we need to believe, RM is a man of his word and we can get CL qualification. Personally, I believe we can get top 3, or if lady luck so chooses, well fortune favours the brave, so why not dream.....


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