What do you mean, I hear you say… we’ve won the league nine times in our glorious history, this year the best we can hope for is to scrape into 4th place… how could this possibly be our third-best ever team (or possibly even the best – let me come on to that)?
Well, it’s all about the statistics. In the Sky era, as the super-rich clubs have zoomed off into a stratosphere all of their own, and the gap between rich and poor has grown ever wider, the number of points-per-game you need to finish in the top few places has grown with it.
In the old Division One, an average of two points per game (in the three points for a win era) or thereabouts would put you in with a good shout of winning the league. But in the 22 years of the Premier League, on only two occasions – and those as long ago as 1992-93 and 1996-97 – has two points per game been enough; and in recent years it’s been nowhere near enough.
Scrolling back, the last few winning totals from 38 games have been 89, 89, 80, 86, 90, 87, 89, 91, 95… and so on. Second, third and fourth also require points totals which once would have won you the title.
Now consider our own “glory years” – our nine championship winning seasons:
P W D L F A Pts PPG 1986-87 42 26 8 8 76 31 86 2.05 1984-85 42 28 6 8 88 43 90 2.14 1969-70 42 29 8 5 72 34 66 2.26 1962-63 42 25 11 6 84 42 61 2.05 1938-39 42 27 5 10 88 52 59 2.05 1931-32 42 26 4 12 116 64 56 1.95 1927-28 42 20 13 9 102 66 53 1.74 1914-15 38 19 8 11 76 47 46 1.71 1890-91 22 14 1 7 63 29 29 1.95
(The last sevenwere all from the “two points per game” era, but to be able to make a comparison I’ve calculated points per game as if there had been three points for a win):Then, consider how things will look if we manage to win our last six games this season:
38 24 9 5 x x 81 2.13
And intriguingly, even if we allowed for one “slip up”:
38 23 9 6 x x 78 2.05
… in fact, by a fraction of a percent that’d still be third as slightly better than 86-87, 62-63 and 38-39 (and also 85-86, when we finished agonisingly second behind the RS)…
So in other words, if the class of 2013-14 win either five or six of the last six games, they will be statistically the third best Everton team of all time – only bettered by the vintages of 1984-85 and (by some way) 1969-70 – even if it only gets us fifth place, and a spot in the Europa League...
And a final thought. However much we may dislike many aspects of it, many people would argue that with its wealth of international superstars, the quality of play in the Premier League is streets ahead of the old Division One with its cast of almost exclusively GB-and-Ireland players. Given the fine margins at stake, this means you could actually make the case that there has never been a better Everton team than this one.
Until we lose at Sunderland on Saturday, of course. Then forget I said anything…
Reader Comments (25)
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2 Posted 09/04/2014 at 14:21:22
We could be statistically better for the next ten years but if we have nothing tangible to show for it, it won't register in 25 years time – it's a bit like that possession stats thing – it doesn't matter how much of the ball you have, if you don't score more than your opponents, you don't win the game.
This is a very good Everton side and the exciting thing about it is that it has the potential to improve given the right additions / replacements and it could be a very productive team in the process – obviously that gives the team a really good chance of success in the coming years and hopefully a bit of long overdue silverware.
3 Posted 09/04/2014 at 14:34:52
4 Posted 09/04/2014 at 15:19:28
5 Posted 09/04/2014 at 15:29:54
Even at this point, it has to go down as the finest season for Everton in the Premier League era. Bobby and the boys are on the verge of breaking club records and deserve to stand out as the best Everton squad in the last 20 years.
We all know that the highest points tally is about to be surpassed but to achieve the most consecutive wins, it's currently equal, since the eighties, in his first season is indeed 'phenomenal'.
6 Posted 09/04/2014 at 15:21:09
The achievement of RM shouldn't be underestimated though and I reckon if you pitted this Everton team with the 86-67 team, then this team would win. Just as this team would beat the great Brazilian teams of the 70s. Not because they are a better team, but better athletes.
Basically, it's almost pointless to compare. Time moves on and so does the sport. This team is not great, so no – regardless of stats – it isn't the 3rd best team. But it's fun to watch and finally we have something to look forward to in the closing weeks of the season.
I hate comparisons by the way!
7 Posted 09/04/2014 at 15:19:09
8 Posted 09/04/2014 at 15:44:18
I'm with Stuart #051 - what the wealth has done is made the bottom 1/3 or so of the table cut off from the rest in terms of resources (when you factor in wages which is also key to attracting the better players). So occasionally there's an upset when bottom will beat top, but it's more about the bottom beating the mid-teams - probably doesn't happen as much.
It may be a record points haul required to reach 4th, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the team staying up in 17th also having one of the lowest totals to achieve it.
9 Posted 09/04/2014 at 15:15:59
I do believe that if Roberto stays for five years and is given some financial backing that we can expect to see the "glass ceiling" well and truely smashed. (It clearly was'nt our glass ceiling but it was OFM's).
10 Posted 09/04/2014 at 22:41:37
But;
As others have said, it's only stats, same with possession its goals that count.
You say ' Best Team' want you actually mean is ' Best seasons Stats' *
* Adjusted for 2 or 3 points per game.
85-86 the Lineker season is regarded by many as the ultimate 'fail' season, yet we were P42 W26 D8 L 8
We are P32 W18 D9 L5... best we could get is P38 W24 D 9 L 5
What you can't allow for is the imponderables, here we get into Rumsfeld's known knowns, known unknown etc of the extra 4 games, trouble is stats / facts (mostly the same but sometimes not) either they are or they aren't
So I would settle for the definite maybe of... 'Up there statistically with the best we've ever had'. *
* Bearing in mind known unknowns etc. imponderables, different eras, apples vs oranges (with a nod to the odd banana...)
Like I said, a fair point well made... but What I did see over the weekend was our game at the end of 2002 vs Arsenal when they won the League... only 12 years ago and it was noticeable slower than now.
11 Posted 10/04/2014 at 00:43:33
People get starry eyed about the Youngs, the Gabriels, the 'Holy Trinity' etc., but you have to remember that, for the most part, they played against opposition who more often than not would be Championship quality, or less, in today's world. The answer to your question, Colin, is no: it, arguably along with 2004-05, is our best side ever.
12 Posted 10/04/2014 at 02:11:31
13 Posted 10/04/2014 at 02:21:08
14 Posted 10/04/2014 at 04:31:27
The loan signings will be instrumental for next year. Will Barry become a permanent fixture, can we extend the loan period for Deulofeu? Lukaku scores goals can look a bit lazy or out of sorts... but so what? We had the Yak, so the question remains: Will he become an Everton player? I think securing a top four spot would be very attractive to these players and of course there is the extra money from.qualification.
15 Posted 10/04/2014 at 07:17:36
Everton in 1905 had to play three away games in the space of four days and missed out on the title to Newcastle by a point. One of the away matches was a re-arranged fixture at Arsenal which they lost after the original match had been abandoned when Everton had been leading by two goals.
16 Posted 10/04/2014 at 08:51:17
In 1970, the then World Champions / England Team had Ball, Labone, Wright & Newton and would've had a good chance of making the final if Westie decided to go so don't be giving me any of that Championship shite. And I echo Patrick (#165) Re John Moores... he was a man who DID believe in the motto so the Beckenbaurs, Cryuffs would be there...
17 Posted 10/04/2014 at 08:57:14
Once you have mastered your kit, then you might have a chance of winning the league. When I was a kid, I tried to kick the old casey and I nearly broke my foot. How anyone could head the thing is beyond me.
Ahh them was the days... good old-fashioned blood and guts and a trainer with a bucket of cold water and a dirty old sponge.
18 Posted 10/04/2014 at 21:40:54
However on the argument of what our best team is - I've been watching quite a lot of footage from the 80s. The standard of play compared to what we watch now is very pedestrian and poor.
That said "show us ya medals".....
19 Posted 12/04/2014 at 17:47:12
Their darts team, that is!
20 Posted 12/04/2014 at 20:43:54
21 Posted 12/04/2014 at 20:57:51
This team is good, very good and will only get better.
22 Posted 12/04/2014 at 21:23:26
23 Posted 12/04/2014 at 21:42:55
24 Posted 12/04/2014 at 21:31:16
Taking into account, the global reach of the EPL in the modern game, and general increase in fitness and competitiveness, I think that there is a fair argument to be made that this may well be one of our best teams.
Plus, I don't know if anybody noticed a GOT facebook post a few weeks back, showing that our net 10 year transfer spend is negative.
Its damn hard to crack the top 4 of this league, and our current stock of lads is top class for what their are knocking on the door of achieving - so much potential there. Colman, Barkley, McCarthy, Stones.......... to have these young guys.....(I'll borrow his word) - 'Phenomenal'. Potential Watching that slide block/tackle by McCarthy today, I just thought to myself, "that's real football"
25 Posted 13/04/2014 at 08:36:26
In 1970, as you say, we were so strong and had a great squad. There was brilliance of course... the 3-2 win over Leeds and the 5-2 battering of Chelsea (I still think the goal Kendall got after about 10 seconds was the swiftest at Goodison).
Unsung heroes in 1970, such as the recently departed Sandy Brown... Alan Whittle and Tommy Jackson all played their parts. In fact I read that the Holy Trinity only played together about 7 times that season due to injury and suspension.
Great days!
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1 Posted 09/04/2014 at 14:07:58
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That sentence alone makes this a false comparison. And it's "would" look, if we "won".... Our points per game stands at: 1.97, putting this team in the middle of the Champion teams' range.
They are also very different eras, ones were the financial resources were far more even: on the one hand, making today more difficult against top 4-5 clubs; arguable easier against some others.
What is inarguable is that 2 points per game is likely gonna be required for 4th place this year. A quite incredible stat.
We deserve 4th. This has been a great season. I thought we played some very good stuff last season, but seeing players like Distin and Jags eschew those long diagonals for playing the ball out is a breath of fresh air, and, my oh my, how it's worked well.