Everton are 'circling the drain'

I can't really argue with the stats, but I for one am stirred up enough by the article and the high profile he gives to the possibility of Everton's demise, to realise that as supporters we can't afford to wait, until the last few games of the season to get right behind whichever players take to the field in any game, we have to be right at it from the first day and continue that way until we have enough points to secure our Premier League status. The sooner we are safe, the better, then we can shove this article right back at the Daily Mail.

The October hearing about financial irregularities worries me, we cannot afford to be docked points. Every point gained will be hard fought for to get to 40 points, but to then get docked 10 will be the end of us in the Premier League.

Of course, it is a concern and it's a possibility that they might dock points, but I think that would be the beginning of many clubs being docked points on an almost annual basis, which would help to destroy the 'product'.

The Mail try to put the boot in against us for some reason, jealousy.

I agree, if we get docked points it opens up a farcical Premier League where the positions are decided by a council in the following October after the league finishes in May.

Chelsea, Man City (again) Forest, Arsenal etc are all playing the long game hoping the rules will change later for them, we should be using the current spending by these clubs as our defence.

Yes m'lud guilty as charged, but look around you.

Their so-called 'detailed analysis' consists of taking the average finishing position over the last 3 seasons plus 20-year trends for promoted clubs in their first season.

Except for Everton, whose 3-season average would see them finish 14th. But conveniently glossed over as there's no story in that, so instead they extrapolate: 16th, 17th … 18th.

Not to say the threat of relegation is still very real with the clowns still in charge. But the certainty claimed for this 'analysis' is ridiculous.

Even that was before any of their own signings or a pre-season. There's positives to be had: Calvert-Lewin returning, Danjuma a great loan signing, and one or two signings to come, to boost the goals scored.

The Mail have been spewing out a few negative stories about Everton for a while. It's a sensitive time, the last couple of weeks of the transfer window. Are they trying to create a negative vibe to discourage incoming players, or to encourage players like Branthwaite to move?

Another week, another detailed and very negative Daily Mail article about Everton.

There was over 28,000 people at Goodison Park yesterday, which is absolutely incredible support from a set of fans that have had to endure nothing but unadulterated shite for a very long time now.

This incredible support is one reason why Everton won't be relegated, and another is the newly found professionalism that is slowly being brought back into the club under Sean Dyche.

I'd love to see the back of Moshiri and Kenwright for treating us like idiots, especially Kenwright because he's a man who is blowing every time he moves his teeth!!

Everton Football Club has been slowly withering since the onset of the Premier League. We've been badly managed, deprived of real investment, lied to, and generally shat on by our so-called custodians.

Only a complete change of direction at the top can stop the rot. I'm not saying we will be relegated but this continuing corrosion which has seriously weakened (from within) the foundations of our once great club will eventually lead to our collapse. This has nothing to do with media bias. This has to do with the pathetic, negligent stewardship of the club.

So, how the Premier League can have a go at Everton, given the financial behaviour of the rest of the Premier League clubs where there appears to be some bias.

A clean slate for all clubs may be a starting point and a root-and-branch review of clubs' finances, but I fear that some clubs will always use the ‘ways and means act', in order to have an advantage over other clubs.

The reputation of the FA and those who scrutinise clubs is at stake, and the issue of trust from other clubs is turning the whole sorry episode into a quagmire of deceit.

What the club needs to do is show with results that the green shoots of recovery are for real. And turn a good pre-season into a good start to the campaign.

I agree that P&S breaches are a major concern, but also agree that, if Everton are the first club to get a points deduction, then it's going to signal the opening of a ‘can of worms' that lawyers will be all over for years, and will damage the Premier League brand. Although the positive is that it's a reminder of what a great job the management have done during that period.

All our fans deserve something better than this type of coverage but unfortunately there haven't been many good news stories for them to write about.

We need to be in the top four at Christmas. UTFT!

I would also add lack of silverware but Spurs are even worse, but they have London, the NFL stadium, and have played in the Champions League.

I honestly believe Everton are about as well known to under 40s in Europe as Ross County.

All the stuff they are basing on is on the past data, strongly suggesting all factors are almost the same going into this season.

It doesn't show the main underlying variable that has caused the team to struggle and the near relegation seasons – Frank Lampard was manager. (Unfortunately was out of his depth but seemed a great bloke.)

This season with a different variable for every game – Sean Dyche is manager let's see if this massive influence on outcomes of each game means the analysis in the newspaper is incorrect!

Dyche got around ten extra goals out of McNeil and Doucoure in half a season. Let's see what he can get out of Danjuma and Dobbin!

My opinion, but with the change of manager variable to their statistical analysis, their analysis is flawed. Anyway, looking forward to the new updated analysis in March or April next year when the new article will be about the fear Everton are heading towards a cup or Europe and rivals stagnating.

Might take a few months, but it won't be long before the media will have articles about Thelwell's great job in turning around the recruitment with some of the best young players in the Premier League starting to feature at Everton, and the new stadium right around the corner.

Now this, as Michael # 6 rightly points out, our average league position over the last three years is 14th. We finished 10th, 16th and 17th in the last three seasons. Not great, we all know that, but why are they only using the last three years? Use the last 20, 50, 70, 100, and they'll see our average league position is not a relegation place.

Sean Dyche will hopefully sort this mess out on the pitch. What happens off it is out of his hands, but if he could keep Burnley up for a few years, whilst at the same time qualifying for European football, all on a shoestring budget, then sure as hell he can do the same with us, before we stabilise and move into the new stadium. No doubt The Mail will conveniently forget to turn up for the ribbon cutting!

I wonder if the so-called journalist predicted Leicester's or the much admired Leeds and Southampton's relegation last season. West Ham winning a European trophy despite finishing 14th and flirting with relegation for a while?

Simple fact is, you cannot predict football. There are no certainties and anything is possible.

I'll be honest, and it's a pet hate, he lost me when he mentioned FFP. I get the October hearing, but we are not subject to FFP. He is writing in a national newspaper so should understand what he is committing to paper and get his facts straight.

Wisely, he doesn't project a finishing position but instead provides a fair analysis of last season, and I couldn't fault much if anything of what he says.

One thing did stand out though, as I have been informed regularly from the expert Evertonians on these pages that our strikers don't score because of poor supply.

Well, Mr Keble seems to think differently… and has the (albeit dubious) stats to back him up:

"They had the worst return on expected goals (xG) in the whole division, posting -13.2 (scoring 13.2 goals fewer than was expected of them). This suggests that finishing chances, rather than creating them, is the problem."

Hmmm… Who knew?

Every Premier League club is subject to FFP rules. We have not been penalised for breaking them yet, but we are subject to them like every other team.

I would rephrase that as "potentially subject to FFP rules".

The caveat being we would need to be in European competition for Uefa's FFP rules to be applied.

Danny is right to the extent that, without this key qualification, we are subject only to the Premier League's Profitability and Sustainability Rules.

The Premier League Handbook makes no mention of FFP (only P&S) Rules.

My guess is the authorities will baulk at the idea of a points deduction to send us down but if we are, say, 5 points clear of the drop a heavy fine and a 3 point deduction will arrive in the post.

Sorry to repeat what I said above but there is no mention whatsoever of FFP Rules in the Premier League Handbook or on the Premier League website.

The financial rules that apply to all Premier League clubs are the Profitability and Sustainability Rules under Clauses E47 to E52 in the 2023-24 Handbook. They are not called FFP rules. Perhaps this will help, from the Premier League website (emphasis added):

In addition to Company Law, the Premier League has its own Rules relating to club finances, accounting and good governance.

The Premier League, Football League and Uefa each has its own regulations governing club finances. The most widely known FFP policies are probably Uefa's. These pertain to the licensing system for teams who wish to take part in European club competitions.

The Premier League has a number of financial rules in place, including requirements for clubs to pay transfer fees, salaries and tax bills on time. They must also submit accounts annually, and disclose payments made to agents. You can read these regulations in full in the Premier League Handbook, primarily Section E: Club Finances.

Outside of these obligations it is up to individual clubs, who all have their own directors and senior executives, to make decisions over how they spend their income.

We are not subject to FFP.

The Premier League's Profit and Sustainability is what we are being assessed by. Not Uefa's FFP.

It will not surprise me if others follow and are nervously looking over their shoulder.

Nottingham Forest, having signed about 52 players in 18 months must be next in line?

I'm not sure they are the same. As they don't apply to us because we are not playing in Europe, I've never looked them up.

This summary would suggest they are different:

Uefa's new rules allow clubs to incur losses of €60M over three years, compared to the previous allowance of €30M. A spending cap on wages, transfers and agents' fees to 70% of a club's total revenue by 2025-26 has also been introduced. Clubs are also required to settle overdue payables in specified timeframes.

I think the likes of me and Danny maintain our pedantic distinction because the rules are different and currently only one set of the rules applies to Everton FC – and it's not FFP.

The Premier League is all about money, sovereign wealth funds, highest paid players etc. The new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock will be a significant addition to the image of the Premier League. They won't shoot themselves in the foot.

Unless you have some unique inside knowledge, I think you might be jumping the gun.

We have been accused of a breach of the Premier League's Profitability and Sustainability Rules. It's up to the independent commission to decide on the merits of the case, expected in October.

If it comes down to interpretation of the rules and the possibility that Everton were misled by guidance they requested and received from the Premier League, which I hope to be the case, then there should be no case to answer. But I could well be wrong.

Brighton are about to sign Kudus while we dither.

The likes of Forrest, Bournemouth, Burnley etc… might be easier prey to make examples of.

Seems counter-productive surely to impose a heavy fine when the problems are caused by money – or lack of it? Wouldn't a fine go straight off the bottom line and simply perpetuate the problem?

Maybe they could make a stipulation that any fine had to be paid by the shareholder who had most recently gained a veritable fortune from the disposal of his shares in the badly run company?

I think if you go over your match reports, if you have the time, since Sean Dyche became manager, you will find that numerous chances were missed over the games being played, not half chances either. If these chances had been converted, we would have been well clear of relegation before the Bournemouth game.

Our squad is weaker than the one that started last season, we haven't bought a striker, and our best player in last season's run-in is injured. Plus we still have Moshiri and Kenwright in charge.

That's all the analysis I need to predict a difficult season ahead.

Simms's late equaliser at Chelsea. Michael Keane's Jagielka-like screamer against Tottenham. The rabbit out of the hat performance led by McNeil away to Brighton. The outstretched leg from Pickford away to Wolves and the goal from Mina in the last seconds of added time.

Those moments kept us up as much as that glorious strike from Doucouré in the last game. Notwithstanding causing my asthma to remind me it was still there.

Here's hoping for a calmer next season, starting next Saturday.

But all said, we need to convert chances. It may be stating the obvious, but you win football games by scoring goals. We are Everton and for many years, prided ourselves on the famous Number 9 shirt.

As for the Mail, don't get me started.

1. If we were honest and open with the Premier League about our financial position; and

2. If we then followed the Premier League guidance to the letter.

If the answer to both is yes, then even if we breach on the calculations, then there's no way we can be sanctioned. Indeed, the Premier League wouldn't want us sanctioned as that would open them up to scrutiny and almost certain legal action.

I'm hoping that those two 'ifs' were followed.

Something tells me they won't want to send us down, we do fill our away allocation for every ground, if that counts for anything apart from putting money in their pockets.

That could be me kidding myself with my blue-tinted glasses on, who knows? But it's not a good situation to be in.

Didn't they say at one stage that our accounts were okay?

The P & S Rules in the Premier League now favours the teams who already had a very valuable squad which makes it even more unfair for the rest of the clubs, it allows them to trade at a higher level of player.

Even so, without a points deduction, I think we will be fine this season and finish 14th- or 15th-ish.

I read the other day that Forest could be in serious trouble, and possibly facing a points deduction, due to non-payment of wages, and more importantly, non-payment of transfer fees.

Not sure how long this has been going on, but surely what they are committing is far more serious than us ove- spending by a few quid.

Michael # 32… Paul is always jumping the gun. Everything he says already seems to have happened, despite there being no evidence whatsoever.

In old-school terms, I think we'll get the cane.

I got that once. I thought I got off lightly. A whip to the knuckles wasn't too hard to take!

Forest are allegedly overdue on “survival” bonuses payable to loan players who have left and to agents who brokered deals last season. These bonuses were due at the end of July but “will be paid at the end of August”. How any team can sign 30 players in one season is beyond me, so I expect things to blow up there.

Similarly at Chelsea who are offloading players left right and centre but paying megabucks for replacements despite not qualifying for Europe.

Last season, I believe Wolves and Leicester were struggling with P&S Rules and Burnley and Sheffield Utd were under spending embargoes in the Championship. So we're not the only financially restricted club. to say nothing about Man City under scrutiny and Arsenal and Man. Utd who seem to be spending without restriction. The P&S rules are a farce.

Regarding our survival prospects, obviously that will depend on the outcome of the October investigation. Otherwise, with a few decent signings, I think we'll be okay. We may be circling the drain but, as my son says, we're the turd that refuses to flush.

They don't seem to be worried, so why are we so concerned about one accusation, which well may be dropped if shown we have been open with the authorities as Everton have claimed throughout.

On the other hand, we are Everton!

After all, I was in debt for many years with a mortgage but I managed to operate in the black.

£8 million sale looks like a good deal.

‘Manchester United owe a staggering £969.6 million through gross debt, bank borrowings and outstanding transfer fees.'

But..

Manchester United also raised its adjusted profit forecast to between 140 million pounds and 150 million pounds for the year, compared with its previous forecast of between 125 million pounds and 140 million pounds.

Ellis Simms just had an absolute howler of a shot. Clean through and sliced his shot miles wide.

I agree, £8M was a good sale but he is not having a ‘shocker'.

What is the bigger story: Nottingham Forest or one of the other promoted clubs being relegated? Or the premierships most established club, Everton FC? Talk about guilty before an inquiry even starts, to me jealousy rears its ugly head.

What I watched yesterday in a supposed friendly, pre-season game ,was a team of players with commitment combined with skill that can only improve with 1 or 2 more brought in.

Anyone can use stats to try and make things look more positive, but it means nothing, just ask people who gamble on horse racing and other sports, favorites don't always win.

Winning breeds confidence and we haven't lost a game yet, and neither have our fantastic supporters lost their unbelievable support. The Mail is good enough to be used to start a bonfire.

Given that Everton have lost around £300 million, I would say we have clearly broken some rule.

I think Simms is doing okay. It's his first game at a new club.

The kindest one said that he looked like he was playing in a pair of Timberlands.

Rubbish newspaper I wouldn't even stoop so low to use it in the toilet.

The article about us loaning Calvert-Lewin to Roma for free was more believable.

If watching that doesn't get the hairs on the back of your neck standing then you're already dead!

Go and watch it now!

Data is data, and can be manipulated to serve various purposes.

If Everton are gonna get done by the Premier League in October, then the likes of Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea, should also get done, so let's see what happens.

As many have said, the game will be critically impacted to the point the game is being killed if there's double standards in the use of the Premier League rules.

Great to see Sean Dyche and his Everton side unbeaten pre-season and making the very best of what he has at his disposal, and not moaning or feeling sorry for himself.

UTFTs!

I like your unintentional use of 'Staring', as some may say we've been doing that watching our team on many occasions in the last few years.

If Man City have broken 115 rules, even if they are found guilty of just 5% of those charges, that's near enough six charges (actually 5.75) so, it seems they are in Shit Street. After all, surely even single charge cannot be defended?

What will happen to them, though? Will they be stripped of all their titles, Premier League, FA Cup and Carabao Cup and will they get a points deduction, massive fine, even demoted a division or two?

Having said that, with their financial clout, they will probably throw a few million at the FA. Now then, can they be done for bribery?

Is the cup half-full or half-empty?

Sure there is debt as most businesses are in these days but continue to survive.

The Mail, like all media, need to survive too so one reporter who works for them has to dish the dirt to sell, even if it is a distortion of the truth, much like what politicians tell you to get elected.

Very few of us are privy to how much debt Everton has or how much the new stadium is going to cost so it's not worth us worrying.

All we are concerned with is staying in the Premier League and winning games.

Certainly if we are to believe everything we read in the media, then things are looking grim, but once again it's not all true.

The team has shown some grit since Dyche came on board which was not evident under the steady stream of managers that have passed through the door in recent years.

Good to see Calvert-Lewin come through yesterday; although he alone won't be our salvation, he gives us a dimension we missed for so much of last season and perhaps Dyche will be given the chance to build on that.

Perhaps nobody expected it, or for it to last as long as it did, but when the rules were formulated they should have had something included for unforeseen circumstances possibly the suspension of such rules.

The "Fair Play" principle with regard to P&S rules is that clubs should not get an unfair advantage by going into excessive debt to sign players and offering high remuneration. There is also the small matter of not being able to complete your fixtures should you go into receivership or administration.

We'd invested heavily right before the two. Surely a little give is needed, with a simple warning that there can be no excuse for any future breach.

Sadly ,the low-average intelligence and high-level bigotry in the UK still serves to make its scaremongering bullshit a viable business.

TBH, Everton are in pretty much the same position now we were in for the decade before Moshiri arrived (apart from the fancy new stadium). It's obviously not great financially which has knock-ons on the pitch, but I actually think we'll do okay this season.

Oddly enough the limitations on spending could be a good thing – we absolutely pissed cash away for the last 5-6 years on some overpriced mediocrity to try and match the latest manager's style (or the whims from the boardroom). It's all feeling a bit more Moyes-era now, which was the best time in the club's recent history.

The article and its banner headlines won't have done Everton any favours in trying to sign players, or for any would-be investors to think that it was a club worth taking a punt on.

I'm sure it was the Mail that campaigned vigorously for Liverpool to get that 5th-place spot in the 2005-06 Champions League.

If the prognostications are that we go down, we may as well offer our spot in the Premier League to Coventry or someone.

There is a lot of good data out there, but nothing is a 100% case of correlation matching causation.

The Keys - Gray anti data and the 100% data gurus are both wrong. It's a balance of data and reality, eye test whatever you want to call it.

Let the data point to trends and identify areas where improvement is needed but, at the end of the day, as obvious as it is, the metric we will live and die by is the points on the table.

Does a full season of Dyche alter the xG? Does Maupay get struck by lightning turning both feet into rocket launchers? Does Alli inspire a new Hollywood epic with a dramatic career turn around. Or let's start small? Does Dom get fit and play a minimum of 25 games?

One thing is for certain: It is an absolute joke this P & S issue isn't sorted before the season starts.

So maybe nothing to do with our spending and debt which was supposedly monitored by the EPL anyway.

At the moment nobody knows why the Club has been referred to a commission.

As for the Daily Mail, their football journalism is poor in the extreme: all you will find in the coming weeks is more nonsense around the Sky 6 dominating the agenda, most notably leader headlines on Man Utd, one can only assume that the sub-editor is a big United fan.

I really don't think these rags like the Daily Mail and The Sun can come to terms with the fact that the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock is going to happen, and that the new stadium can be the catalyst to the resurgence of our club. They are far too comfortable with the status quo that exists now.

On a positive note, that new roof on the new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock looks really fancy. Oh, and the women's team have signed some new players. All good.

What do you mean "overrun with foreigners"?

We don't look any stronger than last season, leaving us hoping and praying 3 more duffers worse than us appear over the season.

The problem with that plan is Dyche won't survive till Xmas.

A repeat of the last 2 seasons will see fans in melt down over crappy losses and dispirited displays and he'll be gone. In that respect, it will be carnage with all and sundry at each others throats and, as Abe Lincoln once said, "a house divided cannot win the best of the rest trophy" (or something).

Doesn't it concern you that a couple of the new women signings are foreign?

Barry #85,

I disagree, I think that although we've lost a few squad players we're actually stronger this season. We at last appear to be addressing the goal-scoring issues (or trying to) and seem to have a plan to manage Calvert-Lewin's fitness.

Garner is fully fit and provides options in the middle and the right and ditto with Young on the left. Onana has the benefit of a Premier League season behind him, and Doucouré has re-discovered his mojo. The return of Branthwaite adds a bit of class to the centre-back position and McNeill looks twice the player he was this time last year. Later in the season, we may even see a re-invigorated Dele Alli.

However, the biggest improvement is in the manager's seat. Lampard was clueless and, just in case anyone had any lingering doubts, reinforced that opinion during his hapless time at Chelsea.

I mean, of course Everton are very likely to be in the relegation mix, but we're also very good at not getting relegated. The last time we really were expecting relegation before a ball was kicked (skint and no new signings) we ended up somehow finishing 4th in 2004.

Borson – a former banker and current lawyer with extensive knowledge of Financial Fair Play – believes the Blues are knowingly flaunting guidelines after Boehly 'overpaid' in acquiring the club for £4.3billion last May.

Chelsea deliberately ignoring FFP rules Todd Boehly knows what he's doing, claims former Man City financial advisor

The same outlet that reported "circling the drain" and various other awkward headlines in the last twelve months or so, seemingly don't have an issue with Chelsea and use of all people Manchester City's former financial advisor as the main explainer of what's going on at Stamford Bridge.

This tactic [Amortisation over a period of 8 years] has seen the side agree extended terms with several recent arrivals. Caicedo, the most recent example, agreed an 8-year contract with an option for a further 12 months.

Though, according to reports, it may not be a technique the club will be able to exploit for much longer. As Mail Sport earlier revealed, the Premier League are considering closing the loophole.

'This hasn't been discussed formally, but is something we will look at. Alignment with UEFA rules would make sense for all parties.

'The only club currently handing out 8-year contracts on a regular basis is likely to be involved in UEFA competitions soon, as are any others that follow suit.'

If only we had an accountant at the helm, we may not have hit such financial difficulties so soon! Seeing as we're very unlikely to be in Europe for a few seasons, couldn't we too, spread the contracts over the longer-term, or is that what has caused so many of our issues?

Pot calling the kettle? 115 charges for Man City wasn't it? That being said, it seems Boehly is doing a Portsmouth and blowing all the money for short-term success with long-term ramifications.

I was reading yesterday they're in compliance for this year because they sold a lot of players, and the new deals amortize over 5-8 years. The problem is though, now each summer for the next half a decade they'll need to generate a net profit of about £135 million to offset remaining payments on these transfer fees.

I don't imagine any of these players are on minimal wages so flogging a flop like Mudryk on massive wages for 7 years is going to be no easy feat. They may well be stuck with these guys for the duration – by which time some of them will be well past their best. And if they can't sell them then how are they going to generate the £135 million each year profit to stay in compliance?

With a bloated squad of mega earners, I imagine the odds of homegrown talents like Mount emerging and getting enough game time to become £60M talents will be slim. But does Boehly care? Is he there to try and win the Champions League, then attempt to make a fast Bruce Buck by cashing in before the spending comes home to roost?

A full on analysis is not required. I do like the 'drain' analogy though.

From top, to bottom, we have become a dirty, wet, clueless club.