Sunderland are flying, for Everton that might be good

On Monday night, Everton travel up to Sunderland to face this season’s surprise package so far. 

After two seasons where all three newly promoted sides went straight back down, Sunderland are off to a flyer. Last weekend's win at Chelsea took Regis Le Bris’s team up to fourth place, one point ahead of Pep Guardiola's Manchester City.

The other two newly promoted sides, Burnley and Leeds United, are also finding success. Nine games into the new season, and neither sit in the relegation zone, with both already notching more wins than Southampton managed in the entirety of last season.

On the surface, more success for the newly promoted sides should mean fewer guaranteed points for Everton, but the Toffees have been among the few sides not to benefit from the new teams' shortcomings in recent seasons.

Over the last two years, only Wolves and Bournemouth have dropped more points to the newly promoted sides than Everton.

Last season, Everton and Brighton were the only two sides to concede points against all three of Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton, and Everton were the only team besides Ipswich to lose to Southampton.

So if Sunderland are reversing the fortunes of newly promoted teams, perhaps Everton's fortunes can be reversed as well.

It’s not unrealistic; many of Everton’s issues against the Premier League's bottom sides in recent years have stemmed from a lack of creativity and, in turn, an inability to break down defensive sides.

Theoretically, buoyed by their win at Chelsea and at home to a side they’ll think they can beat, the onus will be more on Sunderland to take the fight to Everton, which could disrupt their defensive shape.

In the two matches where Sunderland haven’t ceded possession to the opposition, they’ve lost, against Manchester United, where the two sides split possession 50/50, and against Burnley, where Sunderland controlled more of the ball.

Sunderland are at their best when playing on the counter; they’ve been tight at the back, with the third-best defensive record in the league, but they’ve arguably been a bit lucky, scoring just over a goal per match while taking the fewest shots on target in the league. 

They’ve also relied heavily on their goalkeeper for results. Robin Roefs is ranked second in the league for goals prevented, with two notable Man of the Match performances against Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest helping guide Sunderland to a result. 

But Everton will struggle to break Sunderland down if they continue to focus on patient wing play, spreading the ball out to Jack Grealish and Iliman Ndiaye, who aim to deliver crosses. In addition to Everton’s striker struggles, Sunderland is the second-best team in the league when it comes to blocking crosses.

It could finally be time for David Moyes to try something different, either playing Ndiaye alongside the striker to provide additional support, or even dropping Beto and Thierno Barry altogether and playing Carlos Alcaraz or Ndiaye as a false nine. 

Everton are a long way from any sort of crisis, but losing three on the bounce, after scoring just three in their last five, would be highly disappointing for a team that looked rejuvenated earlier this season.

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