Fellaini and the Quest for the Top Four

I would stick a fiver on this being in the papers pretty soon...

Methinks that whatever we achieve this season will have to be done with the current squad

It would seem to me inevitable that Fellaini will leave this summer or at best next. If we did manage to get in the Champions league then that would surely draw more attention to us and him and its hard to believe that either the club or the player are in a position to say no to a large money offer from one of Europe's elite.

But as the saying goes, no player is bigger than the club and so long as Fella is here and fit then we have a better chance of making the much sought after champions league. I agree with Kase Chow that little strengthening seems likely in January, though hopefully we might be able to bring in one or two loans to add depth particularly in the middle of the park where Neville, despite his laudable efforts, is not an ideal long term replacement for the worryingly crocked Gibson.

Certainly an exciting time to be an Everton fan, so lets enjoy it while its here and hope that 3 points at Reading adds to the impetus. I'm going with a friend to watch arsenal play Spurs tomorrow, not sure who I want to win from a toffee perspective. Suppose a draw is ideal, with red cards aplenty!

Moyes has managed to walk the precarious tightrope of fiscal prudency and achieved a decent footballing side..Kudos. However outside our first eleven (as Moyes see it) is where we struggle..

Replacing Mirallas with Naismith tomorrow, and continuing with Neville will leave us looking a shadow of the side we are with the Belgian in the wide position. It just shows the significant difference that one or two changes to the side can make (the Leeds defeat being a prime example).

As for Fellaini...he appears to being more considered about his position. I welcome this.. but at the end of the day he's an employee and if we don't match his ambitions then we can hardly complain about any decision to leave..

However I'm not sure where he'd go..I for one, am happy that he is eventually showing the consistency he failed to show in his earlier career..But I still think it's far too soon to proclaim him the messiah.

If he moves to a club with more chance of winning things, then he may struggle as a small fish in big pond..

When he does go, the fee, as with Lescott's and Rodwell's, would make the squad stronger.

30 Million would enable you to do a lot of team building but who would spend the cash??

Will Moyes sign a new contract, i'm not sure and even if we got 30m how much of that would go towards team building.

Its inevitable Fellani will leave but support from the board towards our manager would send a lot of positive signals. They haven't put a penny in for years and you would think that with us 4th in the league know is the time to help the manager, plus if they really are serious about selling the club then a team in the Champions League is a much better bet than a team in the Europa...........if they are serious that is

Oh, I see. They should just give their money to Everton. Fair enough. Presumably you will be doing the same?

Tell you what, I will if you and the Board will. I'm prepared to write a cheque to Everton FC for £50 if you will also write a cheque for £50 and one of the Board members matches our combined £100. In line with your suggestion, we will not be repaid and we all gain nothing in return but the knowledge that we have made an effort to support the club we love.

I'm not rich but I can just about manage the £50 without getting shouted at by the wife (not that I'll be telling her).

If 100,000 fans put up £50 each, and the board matches it, that would be £10m for the club. If you are able to get someone to set this up, I will absolutely send my cheque.....

And yes, I know, we already buy tickets and shirts and everything else. And, of course, there is no guarantee on how the money will be spent inside the club. I’m still up for it.

I don't know whether this was sarcasm or not ? But if you are seriously suggesting the board should not put any money into the club, then you are really out of touch with what is happening at the club.

If the business is up for sale, and the board stand to make many millions from this sale, then why the fuck would there be no obligation to make the business a sound investment?

Or should they run it into the ground, sell all the assets on and off the pitch, and then swan off with their pockets bulging?

Tom, I think the board are generally expected to support the team financially....the fans are not expected to invest their own money. Since 2003, we've had a net spend of little more than £500k per season... that's worse than Norwich.

Given our relative success over that period, we have not been fairly supported, as a club, by the board. If we had been even given a £8-10M net to spend (a fair amount I think...), I expect that we would have breached the top four by now. By as it is...those with the power to invest, need to look after their investment... a £5M spend in January, and an investment in a couple of loan players (Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe and Donovan?) may get us top four, and a minimum £25M windfall if we make the group stages.

It may be the kind of cash boost which could evolve the football club. Arsenal, despite a very good team, are extremely low in confidence, and Spurs' are suffering from a strangely negative manager, and a less impressive squad than last season.

For the benefit of the fans, the club, and the board, we must spend in January, because top four, at the moment anyway, is looking a potential reality. As I see it, we desperately need a central midfielder, and a right sided creative player (I say right sided, because we have two players in Pienaar and Mirallas who ideally played on the left, and therefore a right sided would provide proper cover). We may be-able to get both of those by following up interest in previous loan attempts, although if we got in Donovan, presumably, it would only be for two months.

As Ciaran notes, beyond our first eleven, we are poor. If we take our best first 11, excluding injuries, to be Howard, Coleman (arguably Hibbert), Heitinga(arguably Distin), Jags, Baines, Osman, Gibson, Pienaar, Fellaini, Mirallas, Jelavic... then we have a bench with Mucha, Distin, Hibbert, Naismith, Oviedo, Anichebe, Neville? Don't get me wrong, it is not awful... but it is not really better than the sort of benches we would see in the bottom half of a Premier League.

Spurs failed in part last season, because they got rid of their depth in January, and then failed to replace injured/tired players in the second half of the season. If we want top four, we will need to replace our best players at points in the season....For Fellaini, Pienaar, Mirallas and Jelavic...we'd bring in Oviedo, Naismith, push Coleman up, and Anichebe? it's simply not good enough.

On the other hand, I do generally think we will bring in at least one in January. I think the dealings in the summer suggested an expected improvement in our financial position, after the departure of many highly paid players, and squad players in the previous couple of years. I would like to see a CM, a wide player, and another striker.

I think there is also a very good potential loan market...Ramsay, Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe, Donovan, Sturridge (if/when Chelsea buy another striker and rumours re. his temperament are to believed), Sinclair etc may all be available. We need to be aggressive this January, and repeat last season's winter window, and with the faux morale of our historically strong second half of the season performance...and a bit of luck, we could be watching Everton in the Champions League next season.

Whatever happens, I'm really proud to be an Everton fan at the moment. To hear people talk about us... to hear Motson and Shearer talk about us as favorites for top four...To see Mirallas and Fellaini play as they are... it is a fantastic feeling. And it is what we deserve, after hanging onto the coattails of those above us, with so much less.

In fact, didn't one board member buy more shares recently?

Tottenham have Adebayor and Defoe upfront without reserve, very little creativity without Dembele in midfield, and little to no cover for their two first choice wingers Bale and Lennon. Add to that the fact they still have Gallas playing in the back 4 and you can see they have definite weakness.

Equally Liverpool. take Suarez out and who do they have? They have a minimum of three kids playing in the first 11 every single week and have ony 2 top quaity centrebacks, with no senior reserve leftback.

Arsenal arguably have the best shaped squad out of the possible challengers for fourth. They have lots of numbers especially in midfield but do they have the quality? They no longer have the Fabregas/RVP axis to guarantee them fourth spot every year.

You can make up any scenario you want in your head regarding injuries. If Jelavic, Fellaini, Mirallas and Pienaar all got injured for a long period then yes we would have a bad team (would just be our luck as well). Firstly what are the chances of this? Secondly what team would this not affect? Take Rooney, Van Persie, Valencia and Kagawa out of Man U and they'd struggle to win lots of games as well. Liverpool would be down to their under 9s.

Gibson has been injured this season, we've survived thus far. Jelavic was injured, Anichebe came in with goalscoring appearances. Pienaar got suspended, Mirallas and Naismith stepped up. Our squad has already shown that it can cope with a normal amount of injuries. We have top class cover at CB, we finally got good cover at LB, RB spot is equally well stocked. Up front we have nothing short of an array of options due to player flexibility. Jelavic goes down then Mirallas could play up there, or Naismith, or Anichebe and then finally Vellios. Mirallas, Pienaar, Naismith, Oviedo, Coleman, Gueye can all play on the flanks.

Our problem lies in midfield with Gibson's injury. Everyone knows about this and hopefully it can be rectified in January. Yes some of the replacements are not top quality and if you line up our resevre team with the first team its far worse, but how often does the whole first team get injured? You can add one or two (as we have already shown this year) without detracting from the consistency of performance too much. City have the best squad in the league, but if they take out Silva and Toure then they have to replace them with Milner and Sinclair. No one has two first 11s that they can rotate. So lets stop banging on about it, because the media sure will, and eventully the players will (like they will with anything) use it as an excuse as to why they came 5th by a few points whilst some side with an equally weak squad will be above us in the Champions League.

"Our problem lies in midfield with Gibson's injury

--------------

Bit of a contradiction there James.

And Just to expand...what if Jelavic's cruciate went? or Fellaini fell down a manhole?

Only if Premier League clubs are able to ensure all the new money disappears into players and agents pockets again.

It is not much use getting more money for the PL if it just goes – as has previously happened – to wages. It makes the Prem better than the Serie A for example, as better players head this way, but clubs still run at a loss. It's the richest national league in the world, and it's in debt. And that debt worsens each year.

If clubs do not work together, Everton and others, will be faced with the choice of: paying down its debt, but losing key players to those willing (even if they haven't the sufficient money from cashflow) to pay higher wages; or keeping players and staying in debt. Utter madness.

I did read it — It appeared to be rather dissonant. I don't know how your opening sentence reads in conjunction with the rest of your post.

Saying we've acquitted ourselves well enough without Gibson is one example: given the amount of games we've drawn and lost, it appears that such absences could be considered to be having a net effect — therefore your point about being able to 'cope' is rather lost.

Bingo!

Honestly, it's no wonder he won't sign his contract. We sold Rodwell for £12-15M and bought Mirallas for less than 6 and we're bloody potless again.

I appreciate that there's been changes to the wages over the past 12 months but I reckon they've gone down if anything and therefore to answer someone's point about the operating P&L, I'd say 'no', an operating loss of £5m is clearly not more manageable at all! We clearly can't manage it and sustain a challenge.

Given the revelations that Fellaini is intent on leaving for Champions League football anyway and we will recoup £25+M in so doing, and it's the end of Moyes's contract, surely we ought to raise some cash, roll the dice and bring in a couple of players in January to maintain our upwards momentum. They will be paid for by Champion's League qualification or Fellaini's exit money....

Or is that just exactly what Moyes is positioning with the board through the media?

You can quote certain players stepping up to the plate(which I in part disagree with), but there is no doubt that we are severely outgunned in terms of squad depth. Arsenal may have lost Fabregas (I don't consider Nasri a massive lost, as he only performed truly in one season for Arsenal, and hasn't since) and Van Persie, but don't forget they spent the best part of 35million on Podolski, Giround and Cazorla, and Cazorla, imo, is one of the very best midfield players in this division. They also, despite all their injury problems, and a horrific start, came third last season.

Of course, it doesn't mean we can't get fourth, and our players might not get bad injuries...but they will get minor ones, they will get suspensions and they will get tired...and if we can't replace them, we will lose valuable points which may ultimately determine whether we finish fourth or in the Europa League places.

And you can bet, that Spurs, sitting on what remains of the Moutinho money, will look to invest in January. And it wouldn't surprise me if Arsenal did the same. Now, if we want fourth, we will have to add to our squad. If we don't, I can't see how we can perform at our current level for the whole season.

Unlike Nasri and Van Persie at Arsenal.

Such was your confidence that only City, Chelsea or Madrid will be paying over £25 million for Fellaini there wasn't too much too worry about regarding Fellaini... apparently. He is now, according to you, "intent" on leaving for Champions League football.

You suggested on a previous thread I was somewhat psychologically disadvantaged for holding the opinion that Fellaini would leave in January or at season end, that it was a "downer" and "treated as such"... which basically means you didn't like what I was saying. This despite the points I raised regarding EFC's transfer policy during the Kenwright era.

I suggested we have no chance of keeping Fellaini as we have zero Champions League track record to speak of compared to he teams who will be interested and:

"Then think about the financial position of the club, how this board operates and the transfer policy of EFC over the last decade or so. I will let you figure out what happens next."

You are enjoying things so much you are now recommending splashing out in Jan, "rolling the dice" to keep things ticking and if we fail to secure a Champions League place, and this money can be recouped with the proceeds of a Fellaini sale at season end!!! And now Moyes is off as well, something I suggested on the same thread worried me a great deal more than anything to do with Fellaini's future.

Amongst other things you labelled my points "facts/opinions cipher" and eruditely pointed out in relation to the Fellaini gossip, "August and January are the season for paranoia and neurosis." It is November.

Think you need to have a few hours off the emotional rollercoaster mate. Your talking inconsistent bollocks all over this board.

I'm not arsed about Fellaini really, we will be fine either way. If we get the dollar we can progress as Moyes is in a good phase in the market and we can hopefully continue to develop the side. Young players, progressive and flexible.

If Moyes stays. That's all I'm arsed about.

The problem with glass ceilings is they're invisible. It's only when you jump up to enjoy the view and twat your head you realise.

I don't go with all the Moyes genius bollocks but I can see why he's had enough.

I know what I said I was there, so whoever's benefit you are paraphrasing me for I presume it's not mine.

Do you think my argument was that Fellaini would never leave? It's about the timing.

Your first contribution started with "let's be clear, he's leaving in January" or some such supposition.

I haven't changed my stance at all, I'm 99.9% certain he won't leave in January and continue on this thread that we should strengthen so we have the best chance of progress this year while he's still here...

The part you conveniently left out was I suggested that only Chelsea, Man City or Real Madrid would be able to afford to pay that fee THIS YEAR.

Anyway I'm sure others have more interesting things to do with their Saturday than to listen to you and I bang on so let's just agree you were wrong and put it behind us.

Top conclusion is that this season is an opportunity to break the mould and get in the top 4, but this time with a squad that could use the opportunity (Yes, Collini etc, but be honest, we weren't CL standard last time). Then who knows? Once you've broken the mould it will probably go back to the old shape, and the team with bigger income, better ground, London base etc will steal it back. But it might not - we might be able to build and move up a notch, for a period at least . . . .

If we get say 4 points from Reading and Norwich and go into these games with several points lead on both teams and win both home games (an IF but not the biggest one – we can lose to Man City in between without affecting the argument) then both Arsenal and Spurs have a lot to do to catch us. We don't have to 'keep up our current form' all season to get fourth.

Current from would lead to around 70 points – all stats suggest that 64 will do it. So a good burst over the next 5 games – especially home to Arsenal and Spurs because, if we win these, they aren't likely to get 64 points – then the finishing line could start to be in sight... and actually moving a bit closer!