Drought-Stricken Jelavic Needs a Rainmaker

Yes, Jelly is not on form but there are bigger issues to solve for me;

1. Central midfield - Darren Gibson is excellent and a bargain but he came cheap for a reason i.e. he is never fit. We will need to spend for a decent partner / replacement
2. We need another top quality striker, goals win games its as simple as that.
3. Get rid of deadwood that will never make it e.g. Gueye

Number 4 may well be a new manager if the board fail to back him this week???

I would agree with you in bringing a second striker, but unless he can magically create goals from nothing, the same problem of a lack of supply will be there. He will soon be viewed in the same bracket as Jellivic, Velios and Anichebe.

Midfield is where we need to strengthen.

The more salient question for me is which patch of form represents his true ability? Chances are that he is not quite as good as he was last season but not quite as poor as he is right now. Can't help feeling that he does look a bit tired and jaded, maybe its just sagging confidence.

As always a well written article and many relevant points raised. You say that you think we play to many high balls into Fellaini as a reason for Jelavic not scoring as many goals this season, but if anything apart from our last few games I think we have played more football this year.

There have been very few strikers who don't go through a barren spell and unfortunately for us Jelavic is having is right now. I do think that he has more space when Mirallas plays and with Gibson's range of passes that certainly helps Jelavic. But the question is how long should you continue to pick a striker so out of form, the temptation is always to think maybe the next game he will start to score again.

I know we don't have many alternatives and one of them Mirallas is out injured again, so for me I would put Jelavic on the bench against West Brom and see how things go if we are struggling then bring him off the bench. Sometimes coming on from the bench can help especially as he will be fresh against tired defenders.

One of the things we have missed is pace; last season when he was scoring for free, the ball was getting up much quicker, he also was playing within the 18-yard box with Fellaini and others doing the leg work down the Channels.

On Another Note: did you notice that in the last minute when Leeds got a corner, Spurs put 4 men on the half-way line forcing Leeds to only have 3 men in the box for the resulting corner which Spurs defended easily.

Naismith has shown his eye for goal (the derby game). What he cannot do is to run from deep and wide, and then finish. If Jelavic is the 6 yard box finisher, I would deem Naismith as best operating within the 18 yard box. Notice his movement and the willingness to get into space.

In some ways, that resonates with what Jelavic alluded to, ie, Naismith working in tandem with him, creating space. That allows both strikers to operate in tandem without crowding each other out.

The only problem is the balance to the team is affected. I can't quite see who we can leave out if all are fit. If its a 4-2-3-1, it seems it's Osman-Gibson, Pienaar-Fellaini-Mirallas, Jelavic.

The only possibility is if we drop Osman, get Fellaini to partner Gibson in midfield. But even then, Fellaini seems to have forgotten how to play deeper. The other possibility I can think of is to swap Fellaini with Osman; let Osman be the one to play the through passes to Jelavic, which I believe he is capable of.

I ask because it's otherwise incomprehensible! I still have in my mind Gueye's superb first time daisy cutting cross for Jelavic in the Cup against Sunderland. One of my favourite Everton goals! (Cut and paste the YouTube link, if you want to see it again: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsbBmkmeKYA). There is no way Mirallas would have done that. To be fair, it's not something Gueye has subsequently repeated many times, but it is in his locker.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown of his scoring rate with different partners. Cahill was on a downward slope but he played well with Jelavic, as I recall.

Naismith never takes his man on and is just another midfielder. Coleman when fit is much better in an attacking sense than Naismith. If Mirallas is out we should have Neville or Hibbert at right back with Coleman playing right wing again when fit.

Unfortunately we are now short of Mirallas, Coleman, Hibbert and Gibson who are all good on the right side. Our only option now is Anichebe right side or try Oviedo???

We actually miss Hibbert, not only for his defensive qualities either. His crosses may be shite most of the time, but he does get passed the defenders and put them in. Coleman's crossing is no good either, but he does cut in well.......then fall over or shoot wide...

Jelavic would appreciate even lesser quality crosses from teh right as against none at all, especially with Neville being unable to overlap.....and don't get me started on his loop de loop throws and Rhinoesque floated balls...

Another alternative to assist Jelavic would be to put Naismith just behind him. Naismith is not a wide player and maybe we would then see the best of both players.

I'm not convinced that accurately crossing the ball is a terribly difficult skill, so I don't know why Coleman hasn't been trained to do it. Mind you, he makes me laugh when he cuts inside: the opposition doesn't know what he's going to do... because neither does Seamus! He just gets his head down and dribbles like a lunatic!

A spot of poetry for you on a Monday morning... There's a poem by Pauline Stainer in which she takes about the crazy energy that's around in springtime. She talks about "hares, outmanoevring madness". The insanely unpredictable zig-zagging way those rabbit-related critters run reminds me of our Irish full back in full flight!

Looking at the stats for the season so far from Opta via Fantasy Football Scout's members area...
Jelavic has played 1939 minutes had 59 goal attempts in his 22 starts (or one ever c.33 minutes, i.e. 3 per match) of which 52 were in the box but only 18 (c.30%) have been on target, with 6 resulting in goals (just over 10% conversion). He's had 480 touches in the final third and received 253 passes.

Last season he played 999 minutes, had 36 shots (29 in the box) from 10 starts + 3 sub appearances (essentially 1 shot ever 27 minutes), got 17 on target (c.47% shot accuracy) and scored 9 (25% success rate). He had 299 touches in the final third and received 163 passes.

Looking at that we can see the shots per game are down slightly and he is proportionally receiving fewer passes and making less touches in the final third so there's some substance to the argument Lyndon makes. From a quick glance at the average position data it looks like he's straying slightly further back in some games, perhaps a reflection that other players are marauding forward and he's slipping back/wider to get involved?

However the most striking (pardon the pun) differential is clearly the shot accuracy, whilst the percentage of strikes within the box are pretty much the same, the regularity with which the target is hit (and obviously goals scored) has dropped markedly (from almost 1/2 on target and 1/4 hitting the net to 1/3 on target and 1/10 goals) and this obviously lends more support to the poor form rather than lack of opportunities discussion.

Sorry, I'd intended that to be very short, but once you get into the stats it kind of runs away with you!

I say, give him a rest. Let Vic start and have jelly off the bench to give tired defenders more to think about.

As already mentioned, any new Manager coming in is going to want his own 'Treasure Chest' of money, but is that going to be a great amount – are we that far away?

There is some serious dead wood around the club which can be sold for funding, along with the already (supposedly) £3 million we have now could raise some cash.....

Naismith for example, surely there is a championship side whom would take him off us for £3-4 million. Gueye, he can raise £3-4 million, Heitinga – some more cash there. So without selling the prized players we could easily give DM or the new Manager £15-20 million on future transfers.

Given that type of cash, and base of a team (not squad – team) we have now I am sure there is enough in the wallet to fund this, and kick us on more, whoever is in charge.

I personally think this closed season is going to be make or break for us. We either hit Champions League and we back DM, or he goes. We miss Champions League and back DM, or he goes. DM needs to the 'next step'. He needs the 'kid in a sweet shop' scenario with cash, or he is gone.

I really think Jelavic would benefit from having Gibson in the team but also from having a real number ten behind him. As soon as Fellaini holds the ball up to bring Pienaar or Osman into play the move is already going backwards and Fellaini's subsequent run into the box drags the whole of the opposition midfield into the penalty area with Jelavic, once the ball finally gets in there its just too congested.

Last season Gibson was hitting the flanks earlier looking for Pienaar and Osman so that Cahill and Jelavic were running forward onto an opposition defense that were turned running towards their own goal, Jelavic could therefore check back as he so famously does and get Baines's pull backs. Now the build up goes straight to Fellaini so that by the time the ball does go wide Jelavic has his back to goal motionless surrounded by defenders and has to drift wide for space.

When Baines finally gets it he often has no option but to lump it in hopefully for Fellaini at the backpost as there is no space in the box for cut backs. Jelavic cannot thrive on this service and with Fellaini's goals drying up I struggle to see what else he is offering. Jelavic needs a number 10 who can turn when he receives the ball and slot him in (Mirallas v Southampton) turning the opposition defence around. Otherwise he is just a victim of the football lottery, some will drop to him like Spurs and Sunderland and others won't.

Short of having Messi in there you could have any striker you wanted and they'd do no better with this service. Slow build up play is being mistaken for domination of the ball. A cruder more direct style, whilst often harshly derided on here, brought greater dividends against West Ham, Wigan and Newcastle (and should of against Chelsea) rather than lots of our free flowing stuff that has produced too many draws.

In the majority of the games I saw Fellaini was constantly pressing the opposition, making interceptions, hassling them out of possession, driving forwards and generally creating mayhem in the defensive ranks allowing opportunities for him and others.

I think the effort has been there, but for whatever reason he is not finishing things like he was when he first arrived. Personally, I think he looks knackered, and playing him every week is like flogging a dead horse.

I don't agree that the service hasn't been great - weren't we creating more chances than any team in Europe not so long ago?

He's in bad form, along with the majority of the players that create his chances (along with two key injuries to Mirallas and Gibbo).

To be fair to the lads, the weather this time of year makes a huge impact on the style of football that's effective. There aren't many teams playing attractive footy at the moment, and that's mainly down to the state of the pitches. Jela will defo benefit when things brighten up, and the lads get back to playing some decent stuff on the deck.

As I said in the original article, Jelavic's own form has definitely been a factor but I'd argue, on the basis of my premise above, that he hasn't been able to pull out of the doldrums because his service has diminished over the season.

Maybe a comparison of stats over the first 11 or so games versus the next 11 would support that supposition. I can recall Jelavic missing some good chances earlier in the campaign (a couple of half-volleys he bounced over the bar from close range when it seemed easier to hit the target come to mind) but now he really seems to be struggling for regular, decent opportunities.