Summer Spending?

We got those players, off the book this season, who contracts end, we then decided to take drastic action, to try close the gap on the top 6, bring in say 3 or four top top quality players, who take us well over the £100 Million threshold, but would make our team so much better.

If a points deduction, surely a stronger team over the course of the season, would gain those points lost.

12-month transfer ban? Again if we get the players in, we could ride the 12-month transfer ban.

I am not saying let's do this, but at the same time, with the big teams getting a free hit, what would stop Everton going all out to land strength in every department, give us a fighting chance, against the elite.

Those at the top will remain at the top, unless someone does a Man City, and spends big, even if in the short term we might get our hands tied for a season.

If the sides out of the top 4 sticks to the £109 Million FFP limit, but the top 4 get to spend more, with regular Champions League income, sponsorship, and tv rights, the top 4 are just going to go from strength to strength, while the rest are getting left further behind.

So again, unless someone like Everton go all out to try and sign much better quality, and in doing so, we blast our FFP llimits out of the water, will the punishment, outweigh the longer term benefit of building a much stronger side?

Clubs are, or will be, in the process of declaring 100s of millions of debt for the next 2 or 3 seasons – hence the Super League.

FFP, has already been 'sort of' temporarily put on hold-ish... and we all know there's nothing as permanent as a temporary measure – when it suits them.

The Premier League and/or UEFA / FIFA, maybe given the choice of let our benefactor put money in sans FFP, or watch us possibly go under.

But *puts on paranoid head* if anybody will get jumped on, it will be us, big enough to show an example, but not big enough to really matter (yet) in the big picture.

That is the gamble... glad it's not my money!

Happy to wait another season or two for them to learn their trade. A tack steering Leicester in the right direction.

I say again. It isn't Carlos, it's Brands.

I read in The Athletic that Everton are “seeking £100M on new investment specifically for transfers.” Is that the alleged Moshiri input or are they indicating that new investment may come from a new source? Or at least what's your opinion on that report?

Unfortunately the entire club set-up and management is not geared towards winning and competing at the top end, so whatever amount he spends now on transfers will end up being a bill that someone later will have to settle.

I'm thinking Moshiri is following the Inter Milan or Portsmouth model.

This tells me a few things I knew and a few things I didn't.

1. Promoted clubs tend to have to splurge in order to stay up – Leeds, Fulham and even Sheffield Utd have done this as well as Aston Villa, Wolves and Brighton. By spending about £150m or so, promoted sides assemble a squad which ends up being very close to ours in quality and value.

2. Man Utd, Man City and Chelsea are the biggest spenders by a mile – with Chelsea's figures skewed by their transfer ban.

3. Arsenal, Everton and Spurs are the biggest mugs in the transfer market. Spending big (but not big enough) and getting nowhere – while clubs like Aston Villa, West Ham and Leeds edge closer and closer or overtake.

4. Liverpool and Leicester are the shrewdest operators in the market. But why? One of the key reasons is the amount of money they bring in through sales.

That is not to say they are"selling clubs" like Southampton who exist (or did exist) to buy cheap and flog high. But they accept that in a more literal sense all clubs sell players. We buy expensive and sell cheap due to the profile and quality of player we sign. Arsenal and, to some extent, Spurs are in the same boat.

Leicester and Liverpool swell the coffers for reinvestment by selling players who have increased in value. It is what has allowed them to stay in contention despite being outspent massively not just by 3 richer clubs but by 11 and 12 clubs respectively.

So, again, not only to get better but also to avoid being overtaken by yet more mid-table sides, we absolutely have to start buying cheap (generally U23 or ideally U21 with low wage demands and highest potential to increase in value) and accepting that every so often a star will be sold alongside a few who don't quite make it (like Kean, Vlasic, Lookman and Onyekuru – without whom our ability to recruit new players would be damaged badly).

Buying established (esp Premier League) players who will be sold for peanuts or free is killing our ability to reinvest when we don't have a lot of money in the first place. Only Man City, Chelsea and Man Utd can be so profligate and we're not in that league financially, nothing like it, in fact.

We can spend heavily, but invest heavily in potential. The worst that will generally happen is that they get sold at a profit, or perhaps a small loss. What generally won't happen is we lose all our investment like we have with Walcott, Schneiderlin (almost all) and Bolasie, and like we will with Sigurdsson, Delph and Tosun.

We need a right back, right winger and a creative midfielder that can run and carry the ball.

We need a striker and a backup centre half.

Over to your Marcel and Carlo and Moshiri.

Should we not return to our enforced frugality of the past and put the short term focus on stadium development and debt reduction, academy development and build in the long term?

But again, how often does that lead to success? Arsenal and Spurs are both examples of the decline that can occur when relative austerity is implemented to guarantee a stadium. And both clubs were in much stronger positions than we currently find ourselves.

This is where we must get transfers right. Buy low, sell high and repeat. It's the only way we can have sustainable development. Buying 20+ million players and then selling for minimal fees or free transfers is just debt acquisition.

We have I feel 4 saleable assets: DCL, Richarlison, Godfrey, and Digne.

The first two could, probably, get us 80+ million, the latter two 40. And Kean will likely be another 30-40.

Beyond that, Holgate, Kenny, Iwobi, Gomes, and Davies could all fetch between 10-15.

So one 'star' player, Kean, and 2/3 of the saleable fringe players (Kenny, Iwobi, Gomes... ideally, both Davies and Holgate I feel are worthy squad players who'll cost as much to replace).

So if we can sell,.say, Richarlison, it would probably be best for all. That he has had is poorest season - makes the decision easier but also limits his value...he doesn't seem to fit so well alongside DCL, nor suit playing wide left.

But whatever we do...I hope we buy young, sell high.

Does anybody really want to see Ben Godfrey stay for 2/3 years and then be sold on for a premium?

However, finances aside (I'll leave that to Paul!!), what strikes me about this well written piece (as always) is the reflection on our recruitment and development strategy over the past several years. If you can call it a strategy that is.

We already knew it, but Paul's article starkly puts it in black and white. A collection of players drawing a considerable wage that we need to be rid of, yet either cannot find a taker, or if we do, will get minimal return of investment.

It does seem that the only saleable assets we have are Kean, who doesn't seem to want to be here and Richarlison. I'd rather keep the latter, but doubt he wouldn't be open to a move if we wanted to move him on to fund incomings. And the money we would get for him would be disproportionate to his actual value because he is a Premier League player. That carries a premium. I reckon we could replace him by uncovering someone of equal or better talent in the continental leagues for half the cost, so actually make a profit. Dare I say Liverpool kept using that operating model to good effect a few years ago. They generally went through a sequence of buying for £15 - 20M, selling on for £50M; repeat.

The only other ones I can think of are Calvert-Lewin and Godfrey. But we're not and shouldn't be going there. I feel unclean for saying it.

Only a select few players stay at a club throughout their careers though. Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal have all lost big name players, but the key is to maximise the value and replace with more potential - Like Leicester did with the Maguire money.

If we bought five new players and three of them were of the quality young potential approx age 21-25, then two more 25+ I would be still happy. Maybe even a little bit more confident. There's no doubt we need players on the up with desire, enthusiasm and energy. We are a stale club that's needs reinvigorating. Only this type of recruitment will bring that fresh air in.

About six weeks ago Brendan Rodgers was giving an interview and was asked about Leicester's recruitment policy. He said something along he lines of they look for a quality athletic young player, who they perceive to be able to be trained into their system. Young players who can learn and be drilled into what they want. I think Leicester are being very thorough with the players they sign and looking beyond even their accomplishments on the pitch. There seems to be a well oiled recruitment system in place that gets it right more often than not.

Man City, Man Utd, Chelsea are streets ahead financially, but there's no reason we can't follow Leicester's model and out do them. It's not as if Leicester are a bigger club than us, it's just that they've been more professional in every aspect of running a football club.

I need to stop it, but they would sell the likes of Torres at profit and then uncover Suarez.

It was a good operating model that helped them slowly in a stepping stone approach get back to where they wanted to be.

The shite have recruited better than us since Shankly.

Lost track of how many "never heard of" players they brought in over the years to knit together as trophy winners.

By contrast we would buy flavour of the month big names only to watch them sink without trace - Rod Belfit, Mickey whatsisface from Blackpool etc.

No wonder we ended up destitute

Let's hope Pickford is on fire at the Euros sell big and in the back ground sign Donnarumma who is out of contract

On buying to sell at a profit, this is really the only viable strategy open to Everton given our income is largely fixed in the absence of regular European football and that with our cost base we will continue to make losses for the foreseeable future.
Using players with a growing asset value will and the profits generated upon disposal is the only strategy available in the absence of some as yet unknown income source.
This is a reflection on gambling on European qualification yet failing to achieve it.

Realistically, we can and I believe will sell players who don't fit into Ancelotti's plans. I think we all know who they are. Therefore, this will raise money for some recruitment.

Godfrey is a good example of a successful buy and the type of player that we require. What I don't want to see are more guessing games (Zaha) and panic buys (Delph). We need a transfer model or structure that improves the squad.

Balancing the books or carrying some debt according to FFP rules is down to the owner and board. All we can do is wait and see.

The mega transfer deals that everybody is expecting to happen:

Kylian Mbappe
Harry Kane
Neymar
Jadon Sancho
Haaland
Grealish
Lukaku
Odegaard

The size of these deals will decide the rest of the transfer window. If clubs go into a 'fire sale' mode, transfer prices are likely to crash. In that case, it may be wiser to wait until the end of the window rather than pay over the odds by diving early into the market. But, if prices are reasonable, and Moshiri has a budget, we should go in early and snap up Carlo's & Brands's targets.

I have been advocating the sale of:

Kean (£40M)
Mina or Keane (£25M)
Iwobi (£10M)
Gomes (£5M)
Bernard (£5M)
Kenny (£2.5M)
Delph (£0M)

To get us about £75-85M

And bring in the following:

1. Perreira (West Brom) or Buendia (Norwich) or Diaby (Leverkeusen) – £40M
2. John McGinn (Aston Villa) or Dwight McNeil (Burnley), Diangana (West Brom) – £15-20M
3. A left-back – go cheap with Trippier for £10M or Emerson (Real Betis) for £20M
4. Koulibaly – £40M
5. Danny Ings or Tammy Abraham or Diagne (West Brom) or Ivan Toney – £15-30M

Total purchases roughly about £120-150M.

Net outgo between £40 to £70M. I think Moshiri will sanction a net spend of £50M, that would be the wise thing to do. Keep the spending sensible, do a couple of smart loans (like Moyes and Martinez used to do), sell off the unproductive players, even though it may be at a loss, and keep our expectations realistic.

Or, I hope that Brands can find us a couple of uncut diamonds who go on to change the fortunes of Everton.

Warning: You are going to read of fantasy football posts like this from me over the summer. :-)

Again, not a player I'd like to let go and I'd rather move Keane on, but I think Mina is more sellable than Keane.

Can I add Sabitzer from Leipzig to the wish list?

Pickford
Aarons Koulibaly Godfrey Digne
Bissouma Allan Doucoure
Bailey Calvert-Lewin Richarlison

Boom.

It also leaves us with an extremely threadbare second XI with no experienced reserve goalie. And good though that side is, it would still struggle to get in the Top 4 because it's not as good as them – especially when you take into account what they have on the bench.

Pickford had a good end to the season but we still probably need good backup.

I don't think we have enough good centre halves and it sounds like we will be listening to offers for Holgate. Keane's form nosedived as the season went on. I quite like Mina but he always has a mistake in him. Branthwaite could come back but that's asking a lot of the lad.

Everyone knows we need a replacement for Seamus at right-back.

We need to improve the central midfield options. I like Doucoure and Allan and Davies is a decent squad option but we need a good-value Mount or a Grealish type from somewhere. Allan won't play enough games in this league. I like his defensive qualities but he isn't going to help us at the other end of the pitch. I don't follow the transfer rumours as much as others but I could see us trying to bring Barkley back as a cheap option. Not sure whether Ross is not past it though.

We also desperately need pace from wide areas, in my opinion and we definitely need more of a goal threat from midfield, wide areas and up front. I could see us going for Zaha but this wouldn't represent good value for money. I'd like us to keep James but he isn't going to play every week - it seems crazy to build a team around someone who might play on average around 1 in 3 matches.

The only players which I think most fans would be happy with at the moment would be Godfrey, Pickford, Digne and DCL. I still rate Richarlison but he is probably one of are only real sellable assets.

The jury is still out on Brands, for me, but this summer will be a massive job for him to get out the deadwood and improve us. I can't see £100 million being enough though.

I believe adequate reinforcements can be sourced if we're able to secure a good fee for Kean from PSG.

Robert Tressell wrote a very cogent post. (#9 and others). One point that really resonated for me was this.
"3. Arsenal, Everton and Spurs are the biggest mugs in the transfer market. Spending big (but not big enough) and getting nowhere - while clubs like Villa, West Ham and Leeds edge closer and closer or overtake."

I could not agree more. We ought to do what the smart competitors to the giants do in Germany, Belgium and Holland do. Have a low average squad age, feature talented younger players with an understanding they'll be allowed to move on when it suits and FFS try and source some talent elsewhere than the Premier League and Barcelona reject bins.

Poster James Flynn repeatedly mentions this and he's quite correct to do so. It needs to be Brands time now.

We have to hope that Mr. Moshiri knows what he's doing because of his background in accountancy, but he wouldn't be the first or the last to get carried away with spending good money after bad.

Financial Fair Play may not be operating in the same way as it had previously, but economics doesn't alter, spend more than you earn and a business will soon find itself in trouble, regardless of the deepness of the owner's pockets.

Obviously, the major clubs all have huge debt, but they also have the financially lucrative commercial deals and worldwide fanbase to service that debt, can we rely on Moshiri and his friends to keep us out of trouble? Will the move to Bramley Moore Dock be delayed in order to rebuild the squad?

Somehow, Ancelotti and the management team have to get more out of the players we already have in the squad and hopefully, we'll see some improvement with one or two additions to fill the glaring gaps in the squad. Even if all of that happens, I remain doubtful that we can make a major assault on the top four or even the top six next season.

Now here is some really jarring information I had not seen anywhere before. An ESPN article predicting that Harry Kane will NOT be sold (because of economic conditions) links to a month-old tweet from a financial football blogger called Swiss Ramble that shows Everton taking the worst financial pounding in the Prem from Covid:

" ...all clubs have been adversely impacted by COVID with no fewer than 11 in the Premier League posting losses above £50m to date in 2019/20, including #EFC £140m and #MCFC £125m."

https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1387289836751622145

Thoughts from the congregation?

Would be interested to hear what the Esk and the more football financials side of things savvy think though.

Good catch.

It seems like it's a buyers market. Seems as if a lot of clubs and players are anticipating sales but no one has money to buy them. For example, Ronaldo on 500k a week is doing his farewell on Instagram routine but who exactly is going to sign him. United apparently want to off load De Gea but the Mirror say it's an "Ozil situation" because no one can afford his 400k a week wage. Likewise Inter want to sell Lukaku by EOM to balance their books. Meanwhile Barce are apparently only bringing in free transfers, and Messi in view of no alternatives has signed a new deal that will be paid in IOUs over the next decade. All in all I expect limited activity early on then proably a flurry of creative, loans, exchanges, free transfers near deadline day.

He had an informative post this week on the financial lopsidedness between tomorrow's finalists Swansea and Brentford.

I hadn't even questioned if he supported a particular team previously Mike, but those tweets seemed to be packed with how well the other lot were coping.

We have to realise - for every seller, there has to be a buyer.
Scenario A - Team A is flush with cash and does not need to sell. You want a player from Team A. Who holds the power?
Scenario B - Team B is bust and trying to get players off the books to reduce the losses. You want a player from Team B. Who holds the power?
That is why some sell for a lot, and others for a little.

Did Swansea think we were going to walk away from Sigurdsson? Or Watford from Richarlison? Were we so secure in our league placing we did not need Tosun or Walcott? Did we check that players who are silky in low energy leagues are going to cut it in the rush of the Premiership (Gomes, Klaassen). Did we get seduced and ignore Total Cost of Ownership? Bernard is £120k per week. That is 4 years at a cost of £25m. Same as £15m + £50kpw but now who wants to pay him £120k per week so we have no re-sale option (Wow, £15m signing on fee and then at least we could sell. Now how is that for an option Marcel?).

We don't have a lot of power in buying or selling.

Transfers fees are rarely paid upfront. The cost is usually spread over the length of the contract.

So, if we sign a player for £30m, on a 5 year contract, the cost (excluding wages etc) on that year's balance sheet should surely be £6m.

Or, am I missing something?

You do realise Rick, that Calvert Lewin is just one guy?

Sorry - couldn't resist...

How does that compare to mortgaging your way out of debt? I know in which I have more confidence.

Hope you're listening, Moshiri; otherwise, Groundhog Day will repeat next season, as like the last few years. Build a team – not quick-fix it.

Could be a nice cheap and youngish option and gettable.

Don't know much about him, but stats look very good for a Championship player at 24 years old. Right wing or Number 10.

Anyone think he can handle it in the Premier League?

At least we used to finish 'seventhish 'and the quality of football was usually worth watching - unlike Carlo's rubbish !