Predicted Final Positions

by   |   05/08/2023  35 Comments  [Jump to last]

As we all (or hopefully, most of us) look forward to the new season, it would perhaps be interesting to predict where we all think which position in the table Everton will finish in at the end of the season.
We can perhaps revisit the original predicted positions after 19 games, and then have the opportunity to alter these original predictions before comparing with the final positions.
Just a bit of fun...
Don't need a reason or justification behind the predicted table position, literally just the number.
I'll start with... 9th.

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Reader Comments (35)

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Tony Everan
2 Posted 06/08/2023 at 14:59:23
Ian, it's going to be another tough season, but Sean Dyche is following the best formula possible with the resources we have. No1 he has made us hard to beat.

Goals are going to be the issue again, but that will be helped massively if DCL's return is permanent.

Then boosted even more if Chermiti performs to a good level when he gets his chance. McNeil is improving, Gnonto maybe signed to replace Gray, and Dobbin looks like he will be making an impact this season. Also wouldn't be surprised to see a further experienced striker back-up signed to insure against Calvert-Lewin's fitness issues.

So a lot of variables still exist and a more accurate evaluation will be needed in 25 days time when the window slams shut.

The bookies have us finishing 15th based on the relegation odds. I think we will beat expectations have a solid season. I am going for 12th and a deep run in one of the cups. Top half the season after, then European qualifying first full season in the BMD….ok ...I'm going for a lie down.

Luton. 1/3.

Sheff Utd. 4/6.

Nottm Forest. 23/10.

Bournemouth. 23/10.

Wolves. 5/2.

Everton. 11/4.

Rob Halligan
3 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:02:22
Stephen Vincent
4 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:14:24
In a recent survey people were asked which city they thought was the second city in England.

The Mancs said Manchester, the Brummies said Birmingham and the Geordies said Newcastle. Scousers said London!!

Rob obviously took part in that survey.

14th, safe before Easter, please.

Rob Halligan
5 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:17:35
Said with tongue in cheek, Stephen. But if you want a realistic answer, anywhere between 10th - 15th.
Jamie Crowley
6 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:26:50

I think with a rash of injuries we could actually go down, stay healthy and we might finish 9th / 10th. So I'm splitting the difference and going with 14th.

And as Stephen Vincent says, safe before Easter. Three years in a row flittering with relegation is just way, way too much.

Steve Brown
7 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:30:23
13th if Calvert-Lewin stays fit and 16th if he doesn't.
Raymond Fox
8 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:47:55
9th is a bit daring Ian.
Injuries is always an unknown.
I'm going for 14th.
Kevin Molloy
9 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:51:00
Jamie, yes, I think you've called it. We look good with a clear run with injuries. But let's face it, that's not going to happen. Calvert-Lewin… half a season if we're lucky, so that means half a season with Maupay.

We got lucky with Gana and Doucoure last season, but no way at their age do we get more than 2/3 out of them. Garner is not robust. Our fullbacks are very vulnerable, all six of them.

And as we start using our reserves, that of course means we've got nothing on the bench. Tarkowski and McNeil (our most important players, naturally) are already out.

Still, he's got them fighting, we ain't going down. Not whilst there is breath in Luton Town, Sheffield Utd and Nottm Forest.

Barry Hesketh
10 Posted 06/08/2023 at 15:52:43
7th from top or 7th from bottom or anywhere in between will suit me fine.

It's nigh-on impossible to predict at this moment in time; injuries, form, suspensions, there's no way of knowing. What I would wish for, is none of those long-running winless streaks we seem to have become so prone to in recent years.

Robert Tressell
11 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:00:04

Based on the squads and their managers as they currently stand, I think the division breaks down as follows:

- 3 x promoted clubs all likely to go straight down

- 8 x clubs, any of which are at risk (Everton, Bournemouth, Forest, Zaha-less Palace, Toney-less Brentford, Rice-less West Ham, Fulham and Neves-less Wolves)

- 1 x won't go down, won't get Top 4: Brighton

- 3 x upstarts trying to get Top 4: Villa, Spurs, Newcastle

- 3 x established clubs trying to get Top 4 who could even possibly win the title: Liverpool, Man Utd and Chelsea

- 2 x really established clubs with the best squads aiming for the title: Man City and Arsenal

There's really not much to pick from the 8-strong group of clubs we're in, with the difference being injuries because these squads are quite thin. On balance, therefore, 13th looks about right.

If we get higher than 13th, it probably means that Calvert-Lewin has stayed fit all season. If we get into the top 10 it means Dyche has done an extraordinary job with the tools available (and in many respects I do mean tools).

Andrew Grey
12 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:03:00
Stephen Vincent
13 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:08:27
Rob, I know, I'm like you though I absolutely believe we can win the league until we mathematically can't. Unfortunately this is getting earlier and earlier with each passing season.
Colin Glassar
14 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:13:34
Anywhere between 1st and 20th is possible imo.
Bryan Houghton
15 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:15:25
With a points deduction, we're going down, albeit with a fight. Without a deduction, 14th.
Stan Grace
16 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:22:59
Michael Lynch
17 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:32:16
Our manager is our best hope of avoiding relegation. The squad itself is currently weaker than last August, having lost Gordon, Mina, and Tom Davies (and probably Gray) while adding Danjuma and Young. Maupay still the go-to when Calvert-Lewin is injured, with Dobbin replacing Simms and Rondon as back-up.

I think Dyche will pull us through, but unless we sign a few more players before the window shuts, I expect no higher than 15th.

Alan McGuffog
18 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:36:57
On a different tack... I'm all for the yellow cards being doled out in the Charity Shield.

I fear this initiative will go the same way as the clamp down on pushing and pulling at corners. Especially when the Sky Clubs are battling for points.

Almost inevitably we'll have the first player to be sent off for spitting his chewy out, mind you

Alex Gray
19 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:51:49
If Calvert-Lewin breaks down, then our front line is none existent. The good news is that Luton and Sheffield Utd have worse squads than ours. The first season lift won't save them I don't think.

Wolves are also in trouble and I fancy Forest Bournemouth and Fulham to all be in the mix. The entire bottom half is the weakest it's ever been in my view.

The top half will consist of Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd, Chelsea, Arsenal, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Brighton, Spurs and Brentford, I think (in no particular order!). Under that, I think anyone can go down.

If we get another striker in alongside Chermiti, another winger and a centre-back, and somehow stay injury free, we could be 11th. If we don't and get the usual horrible luck with injuries, it'll be 18th I think.

Reality is Ashley Young and Danjuma won't springboard us up the table and Chermiti is clearly going to need time. Onana has stepped up recently and Garner being fit is a boost.

We can't afford to rely on Dom again and just hope things will change.

Personally I'm going 14th. I think we'll get the players in but late in the window and will drop points in the early games. It's just how we do things.

Sheffield Utd, Luton and Wolves to go down with Forest, Burnley and Bournemouth finishing below us. Fulham, Palace and West Ham above us.

Gary Brown
20 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:52:08
Michael, a lot of Burnley fans saying he's another ditherer. Could be a big reason why we aren't signing anyone right now. Certainly not the only one, but he could be contributing. Players also know he's a fitness taskmaster. Elanga apparently at least one who said he put them off.

I was personally very surprised by his “nothing imminent” comments yesterday after the game, with Myers and The Bobble both since confirming Chermiti is pretty much done. Reading between the lines, I fear that's a Thelwell signing and Dyche comments mean he just sees him as U21 material.

He's known also by Burnley fans as being anti-youth. Seeing treatment of Cannon, Simms (albeit he looked poor today!), Price, etc. since, along with dropping of Dobbin (best pre-season performer for me) yesterday are real smoke signals.

Don't get me wrong, I think that if we're back to penny-pinching plucky little Everton days of the golden Moyes - Kenwright era, he's likely the best bet to keep us up. But I'm not sold – at all – that our longer-term future will be any better off from having another dour, dithering, taskmaster in charge. The 1980s were 40 years ago.

Paul Hewitt
21 Posted 06/08/2023 at 16:52:18
I'm going 15 th. For a bit more fun. Top 4
1 City
2 That lot
3 Chelsea
4 Arsenal.
Bottom 3
20th Luton
19th Sheffield
18th forest.
Rob Halligan
22 Posted 06/08/2023 at 17:13:31
Alan # 18…

Merely for kicking the ball even two or three feet after the whistle has blown, is going to result in a yellow card. We will be seeing plenty of un-necessary sending-offs because of this.

Imagine, for example, Liverpool or Man Utd leading by the odd goal late in a game, and one of their players, already on a yellow card, is blown up for offside, kicks the ball away, and is given a second yellow and therefore a red. Bingo and Ten Haag will go ape shit at this.

The other thing that gripes me is players or managers waving imaginary cards, so good to see Arteta given a real yellow card for waving his hand.

Kieran Kinsella
23 Posted 06/08/2023 at 17:17:02
Tony & Rob,

I agree with you two. If we get injuries and no reinforcements to cover for the African Nations Cup, then 15th; if we avoid injuries, as high as 10th.

I get Jamie's point but I refuse to think about relegation before a ball has been kicked. I need a break from those worries.

Bill Gall
24 Posted 06/08/2023 at 17:23:56
You can't predict injuries or suspensions on previous seasons, so going on this season, with the squad we have today, I would say 14th; with better incoming players before the end of the transfer window, we could finish around 10th to 12th.
Chris James
25 Posted 06/08/2023 at 17:26:29
Alan J Thompson
26 Posted 06/08/2023 at 17:56:32
I don't think I've ever started a season with so little optimism and don't see us doing much better than Bottom 6 but hopefully not involved in a last-two-game survival fight.

Mr Dyche's performance last season might have influenced the outcome but, as with about the last six managers, there does seem to be some shortcomings. Hopefully by Christmas we will have more than half of the 40-odd points minimum to avoid the drop.

Dave Cashen
27 Posted 06/08/2023 at 18:43:02
Too many Ifs, buts and maybes.

In the absence of a recognised target man who can get us up the field, I fear we could again be spending long periods of games struggling to get out our own half.

I agree with those who think we're a far stronger side when Calvert-Lewin plays. He's pivotal for me.

If we could keep him healthy, I don't just see the added bonus of the goals he could get. I see others getting more goals too, because we will attack more.

All the players are important, of course, but I believe a regularly playing Calvert-Lewin could make as much as a 10- to 12-point difference. He and we are due a bit of luck.

Top half!

John Connor
28 Posted 06/08/2023 at 19:19:21
16th is my prediction based entirely on other teams being worse than us, or in seeming disarray (Wolves, Palace).

The three promoted teams I think will struggle, although Burnley seem to have a plan in place and may escape. I can't see the other two doing so.

Maybe one from the next 8 teams of which we will be one. Luton, Sheffield Utd (unsure why but I have an unexplained hatred of them) I think are certs to go back down. Bournemouth seem to have appointed an astute manager and look to have spent well.

It will be interesting but I am confident we will survive again. Not where we should be looking for such a big club (survival only) but that is the reality just now.

Paul Tran
29 Posted 06/08/2023 at 19:30:03
I'm going for 13th. Reasons in a piece I posted earlier today.
Paul Ferry
30 Posted 06/08/2023 at 20:27:49
I don't think that we will be hovering in and around the Bottom 3 this season. That said, I think that only Luton are nailed on for the drop.

There's a reason why Sheffield is called the steel city; Sheffield Utd were steely last time they came up. I think that Wolves might well struggle given the apparent commotion upstairs there at the moment (but they have pulled rabbits out of hats in the past). I just want Bournemouth to go down – go on, feck off, just feck off – so Rob does not have to go twice in a few days to that little box hole you play in.

I think that we will end up in the 12th to 15th belt. I have to think that Dyche will skipper a steadier ship (I think that's in his DNA); we will also be far fitter over the course of the season. A full season of Dyche will not take us up to the heady heights but it will make us solid, spirited, secure, and safe.

The real issue is that there are just too many contingencies and variables (in no particular order and it would be nice if we got six or seven right):

(1) Injuries. We just seem to attract them like a moth to the flame – the Farm seems to have a curse hanging over it – but it's possible that better fitness might give us a helping hand here.

(2) Calvert-Lewin and strikers: a longer run of games for Dom would be a real boon for us and him; ‘hot prospect' Chermiti will start games, I think; an important season for Dobbin and Simms, though neither of them seem at this point to be answers.

(3) Incoming: We need more forwards but money seems to be at a premium so there's even more pressure to make the right choices. Sulemana or Gonoto are both a tad risky but they seem to be our shopping range and either could end up being a great success. Different sort of player, but Dewsbury-Hall might be available at a decent price.

(4) The transfer market has been such a lottery for us for the best part of a decade and we just have to sort that out. I would love to see us become expert in the lower ends of the market and keep a close eye on ‘second-tier' clubs on the continent – the likes of Lens, Lille, Real Sociedad, Celta Vigo and young jewels in South America. Thelwell needs to sit down with Sam Hoare.

(5) The central defence pairing: needs to be nailed down with, I hope, a right-footer and a left-footer. We need ‘terrific' Branthwaite to stay. Sell Godfrey to draw a line under that particular lottery.

(6) If injuries allow, it would be such a plus to have settled full backs who play week-in & week-out (don't we have about half-a-dozen of them?). It looks like Patterson and Young at this moment in time.

(6) Dyche appears to privilege ‘established players' and, I'm thinking of Maupay in particular. This has led to a lot of hair-pulling and baldy-slapping and I would like to see a little more faith being put in Branthwaite (fingers crossed), Dobbin, Chermiti (if all goes well), and a couple more who close observers like Brent (S) know a lot more about than me.

(7) Discipline, please. It looks like there will be a lot more yellows and more reds next season and we seem to get more than our fair share of both.

(8) Width and crosses.

(9) I don't think that we can afford to rely on the Gana - Doucoure axis for much longer and I would rather that the two of them did not start together.

(10) A full season of Dyche will help.

With this all in mind and trying to be as realistic as possible:

Pickford, Patterson, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Young, Gana, Onana, Dewsbury-Hall, Sulemana or Danjuma, McNeil, Calvert-Lewin.

Subs (from): Virginia, Coleman, Mykolenko, Keane, Doucoure, Garner, Onyango, Iwobi, Gomes, Danjuma or Sulemana, (Gray?), Chermiti, Dobbin, Cannon.

Ian Jones
31 Posted 07/08/2023 at 08:21:00
Having posted the original article, thank you to those who have made their predictions. So far, where there is a clear final position mentioned, it seems the view is we are not getting relegated with 14th being popular.

Bill Griffiths
32 Posted 07/08/2023 at 08:51:47
I think it would be easier to make a guess after the transfer window has closed. However, as things stand, I think that, if we bring in a few more more bodies and have better luck with injuries going forward, we could finish as high as 11th.

I think we could finish somewhere between 11th and 15th so I will go for a 13th-place finish.

Can't wait for Saturday.

Ian Jones
33 Posted 07/08/2023 at 09:27:33
Bill and others, agreed, it would be easier to predict after the transfer window. Obviously, plenty of other ifs and buts can alter positions but it was meant to be just a bit of fun with no major analysis required, literally just the predicted position.

Some got the message 😀

Andrew Ellams
34 Posted 07/08/2023 at 10:09:34
Injuries are the key here. If we have a bad season, particularly with attacking players then we could really be in trouble.

Another problem we may have is the lack of funds to add to the squad in January and if we are struggling and those around us can add a face or two then we could lose ground there too.

Jay Harris
35 Posted 09/08/2023 at 00:49:07
I had an epiphany that we finished 9th but then I woke up and smelled the coffee and, with a couple more additions, I think 12th to 16th depending on injuries.
Ian Jones
36 Posted 22/05/2024 at 11:44:13
I have provided an update to the 'Predicted Final Positions' Talking Point which I posted last August before the season started. It'll probably get lost amongst the more current news. If anyone has the time to read it, please find it in...

Talking Points: Predicted Final Positions — Follow Up

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