Sell to buy

Pickford, I think, cannot be adequately replaced by Virginia. That is overly hopeful despite a few decent cameos by the Portuguese.

Unfortunately, we are not in a position where we can choose who we sell. As other articles note, we are close to going bust. So we will sell Branthwaite.

As per other comment I've made on other threads, that needn't be the cause for doom and gloom. All clubs sell. The success of the RS under Klopp was built on the sales of Torres, Suarez and Coutinho (as well as very healthy under-the-radar sales of youth players, most of whom were bought in as very young teenagers).

So I would switch the focus of your article to a strategy we will need to adopt for the next few years to get out of financial difficulties; buy to sell.

And applying that principle to Branthwaite replacements, there are probably about 15 or so young CBs (aged 19-21 ish) who have Champions League quality and / or Champions League experience who could be signed for no more than about £15m.

Crown Jewels

While there are relatively long terms left on their respective contracts, the vultures certainly would start circling around them to try pushing their prices down. This is where Thelwell earns his pay cheque by standing firm and only entertaining offers that come with big Premiums. If I were him, I would put down the phone on anyone if the following minimum prices are not met to begin with (and ideally to get as big a portion of the fee up front):

Pickford ( £60 Million):

He might be still in his prime, but we need to let the market know that he can be available (and tempt some desperate buyers to make their move before a potentially strong showing at the Euros)

Branthwaite ( £120 Million):

The Crown Jewel with 3 more years remaining on his contract and arguably our Player of the Season. Enough said.

Onana ( £60 Million):

He is a Ferrari Engine Prototype being trapped in a Honda. Let's start a bidding war across the continent amongst those Blue Bloods that have fallen on their faces recently (Bayern Munich & Juventus, anyone?)

Expiring Contracts

Preferably, I would like to keep them. But if their camp aren't willing to sign extensions by the end of July, we need to recoup values before the next season begins (preferably having them sold 2 weeks before the transfer window deadline).

DCL ( £65 Million):

An England Striker turning 28 who appears to have overcome injury problems and regained his form? We should get more than this price but the expiring contract drove a lot of our leverage away. (I have a beachside condo on Beto Island & other real estate in Chermiti Borough, so having to sell DCL would not be as painful a decision to make)

Godfrey ( £35 Million):

While he has yet to regain the explosiveness he showed under the Don Carlo days, it appeared that he has rehabilitated and rejuvenated under Dyche. I very much would prefer to keep this Swiss Army Knife, but if anyone comes with an offer at the price or above, Thewell & Dyche need to have a long meeting with the staff.

Distressed Assets

We would be lucky if we can get "penny on a pound" with them. Any fee that we can get on them, while without the need to subsidise the remaining wages till the end of their Everton Contracts, would be considered a big win (so that portion of the fund, if not all, can be used to replenish the squad). I would pay for their Uber out of town if the following price can be met at the market.

Holgate ( £10 Million)

Keane ( £15 Million)

Maupay ( £15 Million)

We desperately need more goals and signing Harrison wont address that problem both he and McNeil scored 3 goals each last season and the fact they played a high percentage of games is worryng to say the least. We need more pace in attack and neither Harrison or McNeil has any. You can pick up decent players from abroad or the Championship but our scouting system just isn't up to the job.

This will be a very important transfer window and if we don't recruit well this summer we will probably be in for yet another relegation battle. Now Moshiri has really tied both hands being the backs of Dyche and Thelwell with his massive financial disaster, and that wont help them. So hopefully come the end of this month he will have to decide if he will finance the day to day running till new owners are found.

We desperately need more goals and signing Harrison wont address that problem both he and McNeil scored 3 goals each last season and the fact they played a high percentage of games is worryng to say the least. We need more pace in attack and neither Harrison or McNeil has any. You can pick up decent players from abroad or the Championship but our scouting system just isn't up to the job.

This will be a very important transfer window and if we don't recruit well this summer we will probably be in for yet another relegation battle. Now Moshiri has really tied both hands being the backs of Dyche and Thelwell with his massive financial disaster, and that wont help them. So hopefully come the end of this month he will have to decide if he will finance the day to day running till new owners are found.

If we had the Newcastle riches would we have lost Gordon to them?

Scary times ahead

As has also been mentioned, everyone knows we're in the shit and will - naturally - try to exploit that. And we need to start paying for the over-priced Beto at some point.

Who we sell will depend on the offers we receive. Personally, I think Pickford wants to stay, but if anyone comes in with an offer over £40m we will probably sell him. If we can turn any profit at all on Onana, he will go because he clearly wants to. Maybe £40 to £45m for him? We really need DCL to stay, so I think we will renogotiate his contract unless someone comes in with a mad offer. But bearing in mind we are paying £26m for the vastly inferior Beto, it would be a terrible piece of business if we lose him for a similar amount.

The big one is Branthwaite, possible the only player there just might be a bidding war for. Man Utd might offer £50m plus a makeweight? Bad business again, but we aren't in a position to turn down offers.

I simply don't think we'll be getting anywhere near the amounts being banded about by our fans for these players.

Holgate will go on a free to get his wages off the book, or maybe £5m with only a year left on his contract. Depends whether he wants to play football or not - he could just go out on loan again and we carry on footing most of the bill. Maupay maybe £10m to Brentford. Keane will probably stay.

Your £35m valuation of Ben Godfrey is frankly laughable, he has one year remaining on his contract and if we received £10m for him we would be doing well.

Onana is interesting and your £60m valuation is probably not that wide of the mark, but as we still owe Lille three fifths of his purchase price and have to give Lille 20% any profit, means that if we did get £60m we would only bank £36m.

£120m for Branthwaite is just ridiculous. What will happen is that buying clubs will leave it until the last week of June and then offer ridiculous amounts assuming that we have to sell to balance the books. This is exactly what happened with Richy.

Of course none of us know the state of current finances. We assume that they are dire but they will dictate what needs to happen.

Personally I think we will lose Pickford and DCL, probably for a joint £75m, as they are the two players who have adequate replacements already at the club. Any incomings will be frees and loans.

Man Utd will not be able to buy him unless they sell due to their own PSR challenges. Nor will Newcastle or Villa.

The only club in England who I can see making a move for him are Man City.

The Premier League won't want to be fining us every year, it looks like they are picking on us, so if we say something like "We can't afford to be held to ransom", I think any sanction we get will be of the 3-point rather than 9-point variety.

Branthwaite is so good they won't be able to play hardball with us, and I think Man City are interested, thank god, so will just pay the going rate. Once he is sold, the pressure is off.

Anyway. That's been done to death now. if he goes to a team which actually attacks, he will score plenty because he is a very good player.

It's not long since these incredibly insightful snipers were telling us Anthony Gordon had no end product.

I'd be staggered if we can keep Branthwaite. He is the obvious get-out-of-jail card.

He is probably worth at least 9 points a season to the team-he does make some errors but he also saves almost certain goals at times.

He appears to be settled in at the club-in my opinion he is one of the top five goalies in the league and is at a club that has been in the bottom five for the last few seasons but he hasn't agitated for a move which is rare.

He probably has at least five good years at the top level left in him.

Who's the adequate replacement for Calvert-Lewin? 🤔

All others, including the 'big three' have their price and knowing we have to sell, I'd be more willing to do so with Onana who at times wasn't even getting in the first XI. I realise we make less net profit on him, given his buy price/sell on fee but hopefully it would be enough to sort out the PSR, if that is the driving issue.

If 777 Partners do end up buying us, I expect most if not all of those 4 players to be sold. Which is why I hope their bid fails.

Losing Dele and Gomes will free up a very tidy amount of wages, well over £200k per week. If we re-engage Harrison, I hope it is not on £90k per week. We can surely do better than that for a loan player.

Someone mentioned Holgate and it appears we pay him £70k per week. Which lunatic agreed that contract, given he has shown his inadequacy at two other clubs, since showing it to us?

I'd prefer to keep Pickford and Branthwaite so the core 3 in the middle won't change. Sell Onana and Calvert-Lewin if good offers come in so we can balance the books.

Beto has had a tough first season. But he's shown glimpses of his speed and his size can be useful. Hopefully he'll become our Mateta. And Chermiti looks promising.

In addition:

We are unlikely to generate more than £20m from Keane, Holgate, Maupay and Godfrey. The lesson from the Moshiri era is that it is very difficult to generate any fees from crap players on high wages. It might be that these players leave on loan just to help subsidise those wages – or it might be we can't get rid of Holgate at all. I think they all just have one year left on their contracts, too.

Since it is well known we are in financial dire straits and may well need to sell big before 30 June, the sale prices for our crown jewels could well be sickeningly low. There's no negotiation / commercial tactic to combat that. It's the same tough shit faced by any business in well-known reduced circumstances.

As it stands, we are not just managing financial spending rules – we are fighting to stay out of insolvency. If we go bust, we could plummet down the leagues Glasgow Rangers style. It is unlikely to be as simple as cutting a deal with creditors, regrouping in the Championship and bouncing back in short order.

We are to a certain extent stuck with Beto and Chermiti in that we are committed to paying £26M and £11M respectively, which in all honesty is probably more than they are actually worth at present.

Personally, I think we have seen enough in flashes for there to be a ray of hope, especially Chermiti.

Even with our prized assets, again because of the issues I mentioned earlier, we are pushed to accept much less than our perceived value of the player. I won't go into what I think our better assets would go for (I think in many cases it will be a lot less than you think), but will admit that I had a hearty chuckle at the idea of Godfrey fetching £35M - sorry.

Thelwell has already moved to manage expectations, so I fully expect Branthwaite and Onana will be sold to keep the wolves from the door. Pickford is also a possibility, particularly if he does well at the Euros.

Sadly I don't think the proceeds will get anywhere near the team. I do think we'll be still discussing the merits or otherwise of Godfrey and Keane this time next year.

As Dave Abrahams once said, he often has to chase his own flick-ons. He was fantastic on Sunday and very unlucky not to score.

As for Pickford, he has kept us in it for the past few seasons. He did at the weekend.

I'm sure we will lose players in the summer. I just hope it is not Pickford, Branthwaite or Calvert-Lewin.

Wishful thinking maybe, but here's hoping.

Absolutely correct, they are the three players who simply must not be sold, plus Tarkowski who is unlikely to be anyway. Selling Pickford and relying on Virginia would be particularly stupid.

I cannot understand why some people give such low priority to goalkeeping. Our only successful teams in my lifetime were fortunate to have had Gordon West and Neville Southall between the goalposts.

Pickford has been paramount in saving us from relegation for three seasons in a row. At present he is irreplaceable.

As much as I would like to keep them all, I'm with Frank on this and would say I'd prefer to let Pickford and Onana go.

Keane, Maupay, Holgate, Godfrey etc and get what we can. Sell one of the 4 mentioned in the article, for me it would be Onana, and then see where we are?

It might well be better to take a hit points deduction wise now we know how to go about it rather than lose our better players.

Based on this seaon, Pickford, Branthwaite and Calvert-Lewin, to a great extent got us out the shit. Losing any or all of them would really make life difficult next season.

Obviously it depends how much we have overspent and how much we grovel to the Premier League and “independent” commission.

Just a thought…

The way Dyche sets up the team, those "keys" were Pickford, Tarkowski, and Branthwaite; the foundation our defense was built over.

With the roster situation as it is, I say we grit our teeth and take whatever points deduction comes, rather than break that foundation up.

And all negative responses to Virginia replacing Pickford are correct.

I did an article recently that was not well received mainly due I think to concerns over the takeover.

My post argued that retaining valuable players might be worth taking a points penaly for and I was wanting to debate how many points a player was worth.

I had assessed Brandthwaite as 10+ points a season with his timely interceptions, pace and reading of the game let alone the number of blockages he makes.

Those salivating at 100m (highly optimistic) should reflect on the days of Keane and Holgate and/or Godfrey.

Pickford is also on that scale if you reflect on how many critical saves he has made although he is prone to occasional mistakes and insists on punching the ball rather than catching it so he is not in my top take of goalkeepers. Nevertheless he is part of a solid structure that we should not disassemble easily.

DCL IMO is worth 8 points a season for defending from the front and scoring key goals. We should remeber that many of our poor results occurred when he was out injured.

The first decision to sell at any price should be Maupay, Holgate, Keane and Godfrey because they are not even worth their wages.

Secondly based on contribution and alternatives should be Onana, Beto and Patterson (currently injured).

We should also give Thelwell and Dych crdit for working with a deplted squad having got rid of Tom Davies, Iwobi,Gray, Simms, Townshend, Coady, Nkunku, Gbamin, Cannon,Astley, Price, Yerry Mina, Begovic et al.

I think the only one I would question re your assessment is Godfrey. He is very frustrating but he probably earned 4-6 points this season with his ability for last ditch interventions such as at Burnley and against Liverpool. He can also provide cover across the back four.

Also, I think we all need to revisit the views on DCL and his fitness that many still comment on and use as a reason to sell. Last season he appeared in 32 out of 38 PL games. 3 of those he missed were in the first 4 games (2 after breaking his cheekbone at Villa) so he appeared in 31 of the last 34 games, a pretty good record.

I'll just wait and see who is here come August. I can't control it. The manager and Thelwell might have a say, but the powers that be will have the say.

I'm going to relax and enjoy the European finals for the next few weeks and then remember the 39 and remind my red cousins to do the same.

It may help if financial rules are relaxed this summer. It may not.

If we are in breach of the rules, we can't just ignore them and take a points deduction - the punishment would inevitably be more severe than this time around if we took that attitude. 20 points, say, instead of the 10 points last time (and blatant flouting means we'd lose an appeal).

More worrying is the state of the market of potential buyers. This list will be absolutely galling to many but buyers could include City, Utd, the RS, Spurs, Bayern, PSG, Inter and Real. Yes, I do appreciate that some of these clubs have their own financial problems too but nothing like the shit that we're in.

If these clubs are under financial pressure, or there are relatively few bidders then that deflates the price. Based on previous transfers for the likes of Rice, Caiceido and others, I'd be wanting / expecting between £80m to £100m for Branthwaite. This summer, due to the market and our ongoing financial dire straits, the fee could be much lower.

I would sell Onana then Calvert-Lewin then Pickford before I would sell Branthwaite. But, if he is sold, then it can't be on the cheap and I would prefer him to join Real Madrid than another Premier League club.

But if Man City come in for him, I would push for a couple of their U21s as well as a hefty fee.

Not sure what Dyche's infatuation with Harrison is, but he better not bring him back. I rate Onana's footballing ability but he doesn't impact games enough so he has to be the first one sold. Pickford, Branthwaite and Calvert-Lewin we have to try and keep at all costs.

"Defiant spirit" has nothing to do with what I posted. It's a comparison between how many points Jarrad is worth in the Team next season vs potential points deduction. I say we take the chance.

Minus what Moshiri has in the Club, it's still between £650-700 million in debt. Keeping or selling Jarrad has nothing to do with the Club's solvency. That's 100% on Moshiri's next move, not outgoing/incoming players.

Neither will keeping Jarrad result in your doomsday scenario, " the punishment would inevitably be more severe than this time around if we took that attitude. 20 points," Seriously? C'mon now.