The bookies think Everton are safe from the dreaded drop

The international break has come at a good time for Sean Dyche and his Everton side. All the talk has been about FFP, arguments on the Algarve, and how the team struggles to put the ball in the back of the net.

All that can be put aside now, and the team can have a reset. The focus now has to be on putting together a run of results that secures another year of Premier League football for the Toffees. All this talk is simply a distraction. The bottom line is Premier League survival is still in the hands of Sean Dyche’s team. And now it’s time to deliver.

What do the bookmakers think?

A good way to get an independent opinion of how the football season is going is by looking at the latest betting odds. The bookmakers say Everton are 6/1 to go down in the latest Premier League 2023/24 betting. The favourites for the drop in the Premier League relegation odds are Burnley at 1/14, Luton at 8/13, and Nottingham Forest at 5/4. There aren't even odds available on Sheffield United, such is the poor run of form the Blades are in.

🚨🌳 Nottingham Forest have just received a four-point deduction for breaching Premier League’s profitability and sustainability rules.

Decision confirmed, as @Will_Unwin has reported. pic.twitter.com/60dy53CoHI

— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) March 18, 2024

The shift in the betting seems to have come about after Nottingham Forest became the second team to be docked points for breaching FFP rules. The four-point penalty imposed on Forest saw them drop into the Premier League relegation zone, with Luton Town the team to benefit most. The bookmakers seem very confident that Everton won’t be one of the teams in the bottom three at the end of the season.

The proverbial three worse teams

Even allowing for all of Everton’s shortcomings, there looks to be at least three worse teams in the Premier League than Sean Dyche’s side.

Sheffield United look gone. And Burnley should be doomed with their defensive record. Nottingham Forest are on a poor run of form, unable to keep clean sheets, and being in the bottom three could deal them a huge psychological blow ahead of the run-in.

The biggest threat amongst the bottom five clubs looks to be the Championship play-off winners from the 2022/23 season Luton Town. Rob Edwards has done a superb job, and his team looks up for the fight every week. But as the Toffees have shown at times in recent weeks, particularly in the 2-2 draw with Spurs, so are Sean Dyche’s team.

"The minimum these fans are seeing are the players giving everything!"

Sean Dyche on Everton’s 2-2 draw with Tottenham
pic.twitter.com/Tvao3RrM8X

— 𝐓𝐎𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐄 𝐓𝐕 (@ToffeeTVEFC) February 3, 2024

All Everton has to do is match the results of Luton and Forest. Like Everton, neither has won in recent weeks. Furthermore, neither Luton nor Nottingham Forest look like putting a run of wins together. And even if one does, it should still not be enough to see Everton drop into the Premier League bottom three.

Bookies aren’t often wrong

Okay, the above heading might be a cliche, but it is true, as there would be bookmakers going out of business all the time if they constantly got things wrong.

Everton are 6/1 to go down. Odds like that don’t get offered on dead certs. You are talking about a one-in-six chance.

Yes, the Toffees may have already used five lives in recent years, but that’s irrelevant now. These odds are based on this year’s league table, not Barry Horne’s 30-yard screamer against Wimbledon in 1994.