VIEW FROM THE BLUE

The Turning Tide

"In the summer, some misguided folk thought we might qualify for the Champions League."

That was the opening line of the first comment in response to Michael's match summary of the West Brom defeat. [This article has been a long time in the making!] I mention it because I was one of those "misguided" folk who approached this season with a greater sense of optimism than perhaps at any time since the late 1980s.

In retrospect, it was obviously badly misplaced optimism but there had been plenty since the turn of the year to support it. Between December 2009 and the end of the season in May 2010, Everton had lost just twice in the Premier League and put together a run of form that would, if extrapolated over the entire season, had made them not only Champions League qualifiers but league title contenders as well.

A campaign that had been wrecked by a catalogue of injuries to key personnel reached its nadir at the KC Stadium in Hull in late November and was then transformed when those players turned it into a platform on which David Moyes's side could rightly be considered genuine contenders to break the top four in 2010/11.

I retread that old ground because the issue of TW's repuation for negativity has been raised again in recent weeks, with Mike McLean observing: "BBC 606, Grand Old Team... posters from sites left, right and centre are having a pop at ToffeeWeb".

Now, ToffeeWeb has long carried a reputation for negativity, for being critical for the sake of it, for being rabidly anti-Establishment (where the Establishment is, obviously, the Board) and for generally "having an agenda", particularly against Bill Kenwright and David Moyes.

Accusations of a selective (read: biased) editorial stance, censorship and unwavering criticism of Moyes have been leveled at this site for years ? if I were to try and pinpoint the origins, I'd say it was around the time when Colm Kavanagh, once of this parish, ran a series of no-holds-barred articles loaded with unrelenting criticism of the Chairman and then CEO, Keith Wyness ? their momentum sustained during the Schism caused by Destination Kirkby and given further fuel by Michael's withering attack on the manager after February's triumph over Manchester United, one that understandably caused much consternation among readers, mostly for the article's tone and timing rather than it's overriding message.

More recently, a poster on the People's Forum (a community that still to this day is confused by some as being run by or connected with this site but whose most popular posters now vehemently distance themselves from the "parody" that is ToffeeWeb) opined after our locquacious match reports of the 3-3 draw with Manchester United that, "They just like the sound of their own keyboards... Wouldn't be so bad but they're just trying to justify their agenda, which since as long as I can remember has been anti-Moyes," an accusation, of course, that ignores my fairly consistent support of Moyes over the past few seasons, encapsulated as succinctly as you can get in the title of my response to Michael's afore-mentioned critique of the manager in February, "Still Backing the Boss".

Indeed, when I look back, there can perhaps be only one or two occasions when I was sufficiently disillusioned with him that I genuinely believed we'd be better off without him. Certainly the infamous home game against Tottenham a few seasons ago when he threw on Tony Hibbert instead of going out to win the game and we lost was one such instance and there may have been another earlier in Moyes's tenure at Goodison. For the most part, there has been a big difference between being critical of the manager and wanting him to go.

Given the cross section of opinion that abounds on this site and the occasional disagreements between its owners, it's disappointing that ToffeeWeb's detractors so often choose to frame the site around one mode of thinking and assume that there is an agenda driving everything we do. I understand, of course, that that perception is given oxygen when the lines between editorial opinion and news reportage are blurred ? i.e. where our own feelings as fans bleed into the news articles running on the homepage ? something that I personally try to restrain myself from doing. But we're human and, above all, passionate Evertonians and we only ever call things as we see them, whether the opinion is popular or not.

As Winston Churchill, the master of hittings nails on the head, once said:

"Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things".

If you assume for a minute that this website has any real effect on Moyes, his players or the running of Everton, then ToffeeWeb is performing that function of calling out what we perceive to be the "unhealthy state of things," whether it concerns what's happening on the pitch or off it. Blind or unconditional support isn't in our makeup but, by the same token ? with the exception of the Kirkby debacle, my opposition to which I was never coy about ? we've never pushed an agenda.

I provide the context above because, frankly, my faith in Moyes and my belief that he can manage Everton to a top-four finish has evaporated. Neither the hammering at the hands of West Bromwich Albion, the saddening decision to play Cahill as the lone striker at West Ham while three strikers sat on the bench nor the limp defeat to Stoke were the catalyst ? truth be told, the realization dawned with Everton's awful start to this most promising of seasons and the manager's depressing inability to do anything about it.

Still a comparatively young manager, Moyes's time at Goodison has, naturally, been a period of growth and learning but, after almost nine years in charge, having assembled the best Everton team in two decades, seen the proof in the second half of last season that it could compete with the best, and got his best players back fit, this was to be the season where all that groundwork paid off.

Instead, of course, it all came off the rails at the outset and through his stubborn refusal to alter his tactics, the general rigidity of his thinking, and the slow pace at which he does enact any changes, the team only arrested its slide in October only to resume it in November... all while the races for everything from the title to the Europa League places have opened up in what feels like unprecedented fashion.

It's worth establishing at this point some further context to my views on Moyes's tenure at Goodison. Since arriving in March 2002, he has achieved some remarkable things. He unquestionably saved Everton from relegation that year, instilling a demoralised team with instant self-belief, the first fruit of his motivational style arriving in the first minute of his first match in charge with a goal by David Unsworth that set the Blues on their way to a 2-1 win over Fulham.

In his second third full season in charge, he guided the club to a fourth-place finish and a Champions League qualifier that, but for a controversial decision by Pierluigi Collina, one that burns in the gut to this day, might have yielded a place in the group stages and changed the Club's recent history. The disappointing 2005/06 campaign aside, Everton have finished in the top half in every season since, twice finishing fifth to qualify for the Europa League and competed in both a Carling Cup semi-final and an FA Cup final.

On that basis, comparisons with his predecessors and trumpeting Moyes's achievement in stabilizing the Everton ship are vital in assessing his significant contribution to the Blues' modern history but are moot when it comes to analyzing the Everton team of today. Moyes set his own benchmark with that Premier League record-high fourth-place finish in 2004/05 and, as the League has changed around him since, it's taken him another six years to assemble a side capable of repeating that feat.

On the way, he has transformed the way his team plays, shrugging off the dour long-ball approach that was so prevalent earlier in his tenure and replacing it, for the most part, with a more eye-catching passing style, one that drew comparisons with Arsenal last season and helped produce what really was a superb run of form over the second 19 league games last season.

He had, basically, completed many steps of a patient evolution at Everton and this season was, supposedly, the one where he got the big payoff. Of course, instead of emulating Tottenham's gate-crashing of the exclusive Champions League club, the threat of relegation is once again lingering in the background, very few of his best players are performing, the team has won just four times in 20 matches and that passing approach play has become an over-elaborate dead end for much of the campaign.

The lack of funds is clearly a factor. Where last season the core unit of players appeared settled and in sync they now bear all the hallmarks of stagnation and indifference and the manager has very few options when it comes to bringing in fresh blood. Over the past couple of seasons, the Club has a net spend of close to zero and there were rumours in August that there was no budget left for even one more loan player's wages after the latest round of new contracts for existing players had been inked.

But to blame it all on the lack of options in the transfer market is to overlook the fact that in his attempts to get this season back on track Moyes has barely tried anything new or radical to change his conservative and rigid style. Nothing enterprising, dynamic, exciting or positive anyway ? using a midfielder as the lone striker when you have three natural strikers on the bench was a retrograde step that smacked of extremely limited thinking.

Despite the fact that many of his peers ? Harry Redknapp with Crouch, Defoe and Pavlyuchenko; Owen Coyle with Davies and Elmander; Steve Bruce with Bent and Welbeck; Carlo Ancelotti with Drogba and Anelka; yesterday's conqueror Tony Pulis with Jones and Fuller; even Roy Hodgson with David N'Gog and Fernando Torres ? have ditched the lone striker system and adopted formations spearheaded by two strikers, not once has he started with a 4-4-2 line-up.

Instead, he has rotated Saha, Yakubu and Beckford in and out of the team, not allowed any one of them a run of games to get settled, castigated himself for pitching Beckford in too soon, later singled out the same player for missing chances and has recently resorted to putting the blame on all three for not taking their opportunities... despite the fact that, like a long line of Everton strikers, they've had almost no service on which to score the goals required.

Even if you accept the wisdom of the 4-4-1-1 system and the need for it created by Cahill's phenomenal success scoring goals from within it, history appears to have shown that none of the Yak, Saha or Beckford are suited to the role but when Yakubu showed that he was arguably the best candidate with a barnstorming display against Liiverpool and a goal in the reverse fixture against Stoke, Moyes promptly dropped him for reasons only known to him.

Now, with the Nigerian having only played once in over a month, it looks as though he is headed for the exit door which for me is a massive shame. He may not be the player he was before he ruptured his Achilles just months after becoming the first forward since Peter Beardsley to score 20+ goals in a season for Everton but if a desperate Moyes were looking around the League for a goalscorer on the cheap, Yakubu would probably be at the top of his list. You've got to assume there's a personality issue at play here because it doesn't make any sense otherwise.

In terms of players already on the books, Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, a player who chipped in with seven goals last season ? one of them, the second goal in the 3-1 win over Manchester United was voted Everton's goal of the season ? has barely figured. Again, he's a player who has really struggled to settle into life at Goodison but he has an abundance of talent that is not being teased out of him by an attentive man manager. Instead he's been frozen out of the first team and been given mere minutes of action as a late sub.

And what of Magaye Gueye, a player whose pre-season was so promising he was dubbed on the Club's Official website as Moyes's "secret weapon". To date, he has figured just once, against Brentford in the Carling Cup and despite providing some decent service from the left flank in that match has not been given a single minute in the Premier League.

It's been argued that the manager sees the players in training and therefore knows their strengths but it took him forever to bow to pressure and give Leighton Baines the left-back slot over Joleon Lescott and an age to utilize Seamus Coleman's attacking exuberance by putting him in the starting line-up in some capacity on the right side. In an atmosphere where the side is clicking and the wins are stacking up, you don't question the manager but with Everton so clearly stuck in a rut right now, you have to wonder why Moyes refuses so doggedly to mix anything up.

Interestingly, he will be forced to make a key decision about his first team line-up with Cahill's absence during the Asia Cup which could be as long as six weeks, an eternity to be without the player who is far and away your highest goalscorer. The predictable, conservative choice for Moyes would be push Marouane Fellaini into Cahill's role ? he's done it before with mixed success and it's hard to see how that would change anything ? but, in actual fact, Cahill's absence provides Moyes with a ready-made excuse and ideal opportunity to really mix things up and try a more attacking formation with different players. I don't hold out much hope he will grasp that opportunity; having observed him for the past eight years, I'd bet he keeps hammering away with the same system hoping it all comes right again.

After so long in the job and with so few options available to freshen up his squad, Moyes seems to have become stale in the Everton post and, in an ideal world, you'd admit that the time has come for a change. The problem comes when you actually contemplate making that change and who would replace a man who has carried the flag for this club for the best part of a decade, through the dark days of Destination Kirkby, where you could read between the lines and see he wasn't in favour of it, and through years of miserly transfer budgets.

He has performed miracles with players whose careers looked to have stalled, groomed Championship players like Cahill and Phil Jagielka into highly coveted stars, and, until last season, kept a squad widely acknowledged to be punching above its weight in the top five of the toughest top flight league in the world in an era of unprecedented lunacy in transfer fees. The playing field had never been more uneven but Moyes had kept the Blues on the brink of smashing through the glass ceiling... only to fail just when he was best placed to do it.

Assuming he walks of his volition, who that is realistically available do you bring in to replace him? There's a litany of medicore and uninspiring candidates out there ? Martin O'Neill, Gary Megson, Martin Jol, Gordon Strachan, Sven Goran Eriksson, Sam Allardyce (Heaven help us), Roy Keane, Alan Curbishley... none of them you'd want anywhere near the revered Goodison hotseat ? and a smattering of mildly interesting options ? Slaven Bilic, Glenn Hoddle, Owen Coyle, none of whom really have the kind of experience that would make you comfortable bringing them in ? but few you'd think, on paper, could do a much better job than Moyes.

Certainly you'd feel more confident in Moyes if it came down to a relegation dogfight but the feeling that someone with more imagination or more willingness to push the boundaries is required if we're to make the breakthrough at the other end of the table is gaining momentum. Even then it would feel like casting off a life-jacket in the middle of a tempest, toeing a high wire without a safety net... pick your metaphor... and you only have to look at the likes of Liverpool and Aston Villa for examples where managerial changes have not gone at all according to hopes and expectations this season. And if you believe that the departure of PIenaar will mark the beginning of the unraveling of the "best squad since the 1980s golden era" but there won't be any money to replace them, wouldn't Moyes be one of the better candidates to rebuild from the market of loan rangers and cast-offs... just like he's done once already?

None of this is easy to write. There have been times over the past few seasons, particularly where transfer window tensions have given rise to rumours that the manager had walked out in frustration, that the thought of losing David Moyes terrified me. For so long it felt like he was holding the club together and I'm a big believer in the fact that he has done more to prop up the Bill Kenwright administration through the team's on-field exploits than anyone else at the Club.

But he is now in the slow process of undermining the faith that birthed the IMWT acronym that has proliferated on our article pages for years and easing himself out of Evertonian hearts with every passing week of intransigence and dogged refusal to change. Where before his press interviews sounded all the right notes of pragmatism, humility and modesty, now they're just infuriating in their obliviousness to the need for change.

It wasn't supposed to be this way, of course; "The Moyessiah" was supposed to lead us to the promised land of the Champions League but I've got to be honest and admit that looking at things as they currently are, I don't think it's going to happen. Nothing would make me happier than to be proved wrong, though, and there is scope for Moyes to take some bold action, in terms of both his current players and shifting some of his under-performing stars in favour of replacements of equal value.

Does he have the stomach and the vision for it? With little chance of him moving on any time soon, we're about to find out...

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