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What is the value of our squad?

By Lars Eidissen :  09/02/2011 :  Comments (38) :
I think this question is a lot harder to answer these days. Prior to the January transfer frenzy, mainly surrounding Liverpool, it seemed as though the transfer marked had more or less dried up ? with the lion's share of money changing hands in football today coming through players' wages.

With regard to the big January transfers:

  • A somewhat ageing and desperate Chelsea, without the kind of insane investment of the mid-00s (though with a mammoth wage bill) pays a British transfer record for a proven, very high-scoring (just about two in three!) Premier League-striker at 27 years of age.
  • Liverpool re-invest their money in arguably the brightest young striker in Britainfrom Premier League newcomers Newcastle, who is already into double figures by the time of the January window, plus the top hitman from the Dutch League.
So where does that leave Everton?
  • Tim Howard: In the midst of a somewhat dodgy season, but with 200+ Premier League appearances to his name for Man United and Everton and still fairly young for a goalkeeper. Definitely some market value, but unlikely to be realized. £3m.
  • Jan Mucha: World Cup goalie who came in a Bosman. No appearances for Everton. In the current market, I can't see anyone parting with much for a reserve goalie approaching 30. £1m.
  • Iain Turner: Has failed to make the grade with Everton, but has a fairly solid CV of plenty of Championship experience from numerous loans. A club at this level will know what they'll be getting with Iain. £500k.
  • Tony Hibbert: Approaching 250 appearances for Everton, still (just) at the right side of 30. Will represent a fairly solid acqusation for clubs in the bottom six of the Premier League. Though recently renewed his contract and likely to see out his playing days at Goodison. £1m pushing £1.5m.
  • Leighton Baines: Just keeps improving at still only 26. Deserves to establish himself in the England set-up (crazy these days to think that Bridge blocked him out for so long!). Bayern Munich are on record about their admiration. That sets the bar. Not on crazy wages either, which should add significantly to his value too. £12m.
  • Joseph Yobo: Still three and a bit years to go on a fairly lucrative (£40k/week) deal with Everton. Basically I think as the situation stands, we'd be happy for someone to take over his wages. Incredible fall from grace since being our most used player in the back-to-back 5th-place finishes of 07-08 and 08-09. £1m.
  • John Heitinga: Engimatic Everton career. Brilliant in patches, frustrating on a regular basis. As a former La Liga-player and World Cup finalist with Holland, should still have the whole of Europe as market for potential new suitors. That helps his value and maybe we can recoup our transfer outlay. Already being on very big wages will keep the fee down. £6m.
  • Phil Jagielka: Some good spells, but not quite as dependable as prior to his injury. A part of an Everton defence that simply hasn't been working this season. International honours will add to his value and he is still fairly young for a central defender. £9m.
  • Sylvain Distin: Brilliant season for the Blues. Still one more season to run on his Everton deal. More likely to get that extended by a further two years and see out his playing days at Goodison (will be approaching 37 by summer of 2016). £3m.
  • Seamus Coleman: At 22 years of age, a mild sensation for Everton this season. Although goals and impressive forward runs, his defensive discipline leaves a bit to be desired. His value will be hugely dependent on whether SAF, Wenger, Mancini or Ancelotti/Roman sees him as sophisticated enough to make another leap up. £8m... but he won't be transferred for that. Either £15m+ to a bigger club or stay at Goodison (and possibly leaving for peanuts if failing to make the grade over time here).
  • Diniyar Bilyaletdinov: Great strike rate last season, but the jury has been out and this season has been a struggle so far. He will get plenty of chances with Pienaar and several options upfront gone. Clearly a footballer of a certain calibre, and we should be able to recoup a fair amount of the hefty (though that might be a bit of an over-statement after the January transfer window fees) fee we paid for him. £6m.
  • Mikel Arteta: On big, big wages for a further four years. Only five or six clubs in the League will be willing to match or top that contract, and if they'd seen the need for Mikel, they'd probably have done something years ago. He has grown into a fairly big stature at Everton, and thus I can't really see us "cashing in cleverly" and even so, I feel even the old market of Spurs, Newcastle, Boro and West Ham always to be trusted in throwing millions at old players with a negative career curve has dried up. Though, having said that, I'm not all negative towards Mikel. He will likely pick up on his dubious form this year and likely to stay here for at least a few years more. £5m.
  • Tim Cahill: Incredible eye for goal. Stats down the years also show that Everton collect a significantly higher amount of points with him the team. This season, with Tim at the Asian Cup has been a small exception the rule. 32 years in December. He will add something to any club in the Premier League, even if as a cameo option for the top 5-6. For a bottom eight club, he could be the difference between staying in the league or not. £6m.
  • Phil Neville: Derisory offer from Spurs in January. Would have had him down as a fairly nailed-on Moyes successor prior to that transfer saga. Maybe both him and Moyes see the latter staying at Goodison for well beyond Pip's playing days, thus forcing him to go elsewhere at some point in between anyway? I see him as still being worth something to an Everton squad. £1.5m.
  • Marouane Fellaini: Two years to run on his Everton contract this summer. More or less impressive since he arrived with nine league goals in 08-09. Dominating games more by the minute. The biggest clubs in Europe will surely take notice. Age on his side. Value will plummet after summer window if he still hasn't renewed. £25m.
  • Jack Rodwell: People are beginning to expect things from Jack on the pitch and the first question marks of whether he can really live up to the enourmous expectations of him are well and truly in. Still not 20 though and with 60 Premier League appearances to his name. Seems a good bet for a future England midfielder and the bigger clubs will be very keen. £18m.
  • Louis Saha: At 32, still maintains a very healthy strike rate in the Premier League. Can only be expected to be available for two thirds of the games. One year to run on his Everton deal. I can see the parties let it run until January next year before making a decision of one more year or cashing in slightly. Obviously worth a bit more right now if the club do decide to cash in. Premier League goals don't sell for free. £2m.
  • James Vaughan: Actually approaching double figures in the Championship in a stop-start season of two loan spells with Palace and a cameo at Anfield of all places in-between the loan spells. Recently called up for the U21s. A striker with something to add to clubs all the way up to the bottom six/half of the Premier League, even if maybe a bit too unpolished to make the grade at Goodison. £3m.
  • Jermaine Beckford: Make no mistake, six goals (four in the Premier League) in his first six months at Goodison is more than respectable for a player making the leap from League One. Could easily be into double figures already with a bit more composure infront of goal (and oh for his wrongly disallowed goal against Wigan and putting away that giant opportunity in injury time at Sunderland). Arriving as a Bosman player, on a decent contract of £25k/wk, but for a total investment of £5m (£0 fee + £1.25m/yr wages for each of four years), he has quite clearly delievered much more than what is to be expected at that price in the Premier League. £4m.

    Magaye Gueye: Will we see this man on the pitch for a Premier League game?! Very strange that he's not been given a sniff of a chance since he was already established with Strasbourg in the French Ligue One with 11 goals from 27 matches last season. Bought for £900k. Given his age and exploits in France, I'd still expect us to recoup that. £1m.

  • Yakubu: As was to be expected, a bright start at Leicester. Seems to have little future at Goodison, and could interested clubs be pushing this in transfer negotiations? We must be prepared to take the biggest net loss on an Everton signing in history. £4m.
  • Victor Anichebe: Non-scoring striker with a renewed deal at Goodison. Will fetch a transfer fee if he leaves, but not much. £2m.
  • Joao Silva: Another seemingly pointless summer signing. £0m.
Total: £122.5m.

Reader Comments (38)

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John Daley
1 Posted 09/02/2011 at 14:23:47
"Seamus Coleman:..... £8m... but he won't be transferred for that. Either £15m+ to a bigger club or stay at Goodison"

I like the lad but think you're going way over the top with your valuation there.
Paul Olsen
2 Posted 09/02/2011 at 14:31:30
Is Leon Osman valued at 0?

Also think your current price for Coleman is inflated. He's showing promise, but his technique will not send the big clubs calling.... yet....

Also think some of our younger ones already would command an ok fee, such as Barkley.

Also the likes of Mustafi, Duffy and Baxter would be worth more than nothing.
Paul Carr
3 Posted 09/02/2011 at 14:32:57
Beckford will be worth a lot more by the end of the season, having scored a few more beauties. A revised total valuation of approx £130 million compared to the £45 million in the accounts puts things into perspective.
Lars Eidissen
4 Posted 09/02/2011 at 14:41:42
Paul # 2. I simply overlooked Leon on the squad list. A bit similar to Hibbert in that he has renewed his contract and I see him staying here until his career at least in the top two divisions is over. But definitely worth a bit on a long contract with Everton and no less than average Premier League-wage tops, I'd say £2.5m.
Dave Lynch
5 Posted 09/02/2011 at 15:10:14
£2.5 Million for Osman!

If anyone offers anywhere near that we should snap their hand off.

Cahill, due to his age and injury problems, as well as pissing off for a decent amount of time each season. £3-4 Million tops.
David Thomas
6 Posted 09/02/2011 at 15:48:20
Lars,

£12 million for Baines
£15+ million for Coleman

There is no way anyone is going to offer anything like that for Coleman. Also, there is no way his value would be higher than Baines.
Liam Reilly
7 Posted 09/02/2011 at 16:30:34
You touched on it Lars, when talking about Fellaini. Value is only relative to the remaining length of the player's contract, the age of the player, and the club's reluctance to sell.

As we are skint and, unless City bid for the players above, I think you are being very generous with some of your estimations.
Martin Mason
8 Posted 09/02/2011 at 16:48:35
I wouldn't disagree with any of your valuations but, as pointed out, the transfer market is dead with most clubs in the same positon as Everton. I doubt we'd get the price you say for Coleman but I believe that Baines will fetch really good money.

The question is who will we sell this summer? I'd say the Big Fella if he carries on as he is. I wouldn't slag him for it, he deserves to play at the very highest level. You have to hand it to Moyes too.

Tony McNulty
9 Posted 09/02/2011 at 17:02:31
They are like houses ? only worth what somneone is prepared to pay on the day.

Unless one of the rich pricks really wants someone (e.g. Chelsea for Fellaini) or a lottery winner redneck (a la Mark Hughes when with City) comes calling, we would initially get derisory offers for players. Why? Because they know we are skint, and as per the Rooney sale, once someone wants to go, you give in in the end.

Funnily enough, I suspect most initial offers for our players will be at the 'Appy 'Arry end of the scale (e.g. the first derisory offer for Phil Neville). Once we had earned a few quid from initial sales, we might be better placed to resist other, later, bigger offers.

In reality, I think you would get £100m absolutely tops for our squad, and less in a fire sale.
Christopher McCullough
10 Posted 09/02/2011 at 17:41:37
We'd get the £9million back for Bily because he's more highly regard outside of L4. Coleman may one day become a £12 million right back but that's wishful thinking just now.

Other than that; what a depressing concept. You follow the same logic as Kenwright... with respect.
Gavin Ramejkis
11 Posted 09/02/2011 at 18:11:45
Whatever Chelski and The Lion from the Wizard of Oz tells us its worth.
Brian Waring
12 Posted 09/02/2011 at 18:43:37
The value of the squad depends on what other teams are willing to pay us.
Andy Crooks
13 Posted 09/02/2011 at 18:42:14
Lars, your valuations are, frankly, insane. Much as I admire Tim Cahill, if anyone offers £6 million for him, let's grab it. Also, if we had paid £18 million for Jack Rodwell would you not feel pretty fucked off?
Mike Bowley
14 Posted 09/02/2011 at 19:35:31
So let's sell Mucha, Turner, Vaughan, Yakubu, Yobo and Victor in the summer to get in £11.5M. With Lonergan being free we can get in a striker of quality to be fit when Saha's not. Crouch perhaps for Baines's/Arteta's crosses? A left back/left centre half cover be handy too with the money saving from the wages of the 6 departing. Simples.
Roberto Birquet
15 Posted 09/02/2011 at 20:14:07
Tony
They are like houses ? only worth what somneone is prepared to pay on the day.

---------------
No, only what someone is ABLE to pay on the day. You can be willing (say Everton) but not able.

In terms of balance sheet, Everton is a lot better off than the accounts show. Especially if big spending clubs (Chlesea, Man C, Man U, even Spurs) are still around to stick money into the system

I think some of your valuations are over the top ? Coleman ? others the opposite ? Arteta, plus missed out players. Very strange accounting system to value Rodwell at nothing. Makes a bit of a nonsense of the balance sheet.
Denis Richardson
16 Posted 09/02/2011 at 20:46:22
Lars, interesting idea but on the depressing side. Let's see what happens nearer the end of the season.

Also think the valuations are very optimistic as the world and his dog knows we are skint and will probably be begging for someone to buy our players to pay interest / debt / bills / wages etc.

On another note, does anyone know if Gueye has a clause in his contract that means we have to pay something if he makes a PL appearance? I cannot think of any other reason why they guy has not even had 10 mins as a sub.
Chris Hannon
17 Posted 09/02/2011 at 22:46:01
Transfer values of players are bollox! There are variables such as the current market, the transfer window concerned the buyer concerned, the need if the buyer! It's impossible to judge!

Would Torres have gone for £50 million on the first day of the window? No; £35 million at most ? same as Carroll, £20 million at most!

It's not Championship Manager!

James Stewart
18 Posted 10/02/2011 at 03:16:19
God what are you on!? I don't think you got a single player's market value right!
Matthew Tait
19 Posted 10/02/2011 at 11:07:48
As you hinted at in your article, market value is massively dependent on a range of factors, chief among them: the length of the player's contract; how many bidders there are, how much they want the player, and how rich they are; and whether or not he is pushing for a move.

That said, I think most of your valuations are probably fairly close, except these:

Howard is worth more than £3m, no doubt at all. He's contracted until 2014, he's the American national keeper, he's very highly rated with 5+ years to go at the top of his game, and experienced, reliable goalkeepers are hard to come by. It's hard to put a value on him but I'm certain it's closer to £10m than £5m.

Coleman is never in a million years worth £15m. Take £10m off that and you're in the ballpark, maybe a bit more.

Arteta for £5m?! I don't even know what to say about that. Add £10m at least.
Matthew Tait
20 Posted 10/02/2011 at 11:31:43
Well actually wikipedia suggests Howard is only contracted until the end of next season, which sounds right. That would probably knock a couple of million off what I was thinking.

If that's the case, in reality his market value will depend a lot on what happens with contract negotiations this summer, but if for some reason we decided to cash in or he wanted to move, I would say we'd probably get £5-7m.
Kunal Desai
21 Posted 10/02/2011 at 13:01:24
Vaughan - £3M?? I very much doubt it. He would have been sold by now if anyone had bid around that figure. If he is eventually sold it'll probably be for around £1M.

Same with Beckford, too early to say. Right now he maybe worth around £1.5-2M.
Roman Sidey
23 Posted 11/02/2011 at 00:04:33
Vaughan is only going to be bought by Championship sides, so £1 mil will be the most I'd say. At nearly 23, Moyes would be wise to sell him soon. You can't be still getting loaned out in your mid-late 20s ? save me the "Yak is out at 28" comebacks too. What I mean is you can't be perpetually on loan. Something has to give.
Richard Harris
24 Posted 11/02/2011 at 00:12:35
£122.5m? Fuck off, Lars :0)
Art Tosh
25 Posted 11/02/2011 at 02:57:39
How much for Moyes... can't we sell the manager too?
Lars Eidissen
26 Posted 11/02/2011 at 04:05:46
I would just like to clarify with regards to Seamus Coleman.

I am putting his expected value at £8m - eight million pounds.

But what I am saying is that is unlikely to be the price for him should he leave.

It will either be in the sub-£5m (could be way lower) to a bottom six club in the PL or the Championship, OR if he at some point gets picked up by the rich big five or six, it will be £15m+. Everton won't be selling a young player on mediocre wages upwards for anything less. Andy Johnson to Fulham was £11m, let's keep in mind.

I don't think the £8m estimate is high. Possibly by £1m or so.

Compare to where you'd think other clubs would value other players in the league at an age around 22 who have been playing regularly for a mid-table side and contributing more than a fair share of goals and assists. It would definitely be above £5m.
Paul Olsen
27 Posted 11/02/2011 at 08:22:02
Since I also like playing with numbers, I'll have a go as well. Still, just a paper tiger, with no real value to anything. Good fun though:

? Tim Howard: Keepers are a dime a dozen, but Howard is internationally renowned and in his prime ? £5M.

? Jan Mucha: Will surely leave on a free after the season. However, right now probably worth £500k or thereabouts.

? Iain Turner ? £500k.

? Tony Hibbert: Contract and pedigree commands about £2M. Not gonna be sold anyway, but still a good defender.

? Leighton Baines: Spoken interest from top clubs = good fees. When he also is highly unlikely to throw a fuzz about leaving, his prize is in the vicinity of £15-20M.

? Joseph Yobo: Will leave for something between £1½-3 mill in the summer.

? John Heitinga: £5M-£9M. Interest from semi-big/big clubs will make him a very saleable asset. Likely to throw a fuzz if wanted and that may drive his prize down.

?Phil Jagielka: Still rated, right age and English ? £8-12M

? Sylvain Distin: Solid, but clearly wrong age-wise. Unlikely to ever command a higher fee than £2M.

? Seamus Coleman: Clearly on the up, good goal rate and unorthodox. A great prospect, but unlikely to command huge sums yet... £5M.

? Diniyar Bilyaletdinov: Potentially great class, but likely to have suitors thinking twice about his form in England. £5-8M

? Mikel Arteta: Everton will never sell their highest paid team-member cheaply, certainly not when he's got a long contract as well. Not sure how coveted he really is but £8-10M is not unlikely.

? Tim Cahill: An icon and a goal guarantor. Bit more technique and a little younger and we would have a big money player. Now, however, going past 30, he's unlikely to ever be sold and if he was I would expect at least £10M.

? Phil Neville: Well, considering his age the £1,5M is likely to be the most we'll ever get for this one.

? Marouane Fellaini: Undeniable class and potential. Can do well against anyone and that has to be noticed around the world. Our prize asset should be worth £20-25M.

? Jack Rodwell: Might look a bit stagnant, which in turn may have the big clubs in the thinking box about Jack. Still likely to command £20M at this stage.

? Louis Saha: Although a class player on his day, injury history and age will drive his prize down significantly ? £3M.

? James Vaughan: If he does really well on his current loan and stays injury free, Lars's suggestion of £3M may not be too far off. Right now, however, I'd say £1.5M.

? Jermaine Beckford: Likely to get interest from mid-lower table clubs. Proven goalscorer, but still unproved on this stage. £3M.

? Magaye Gueye: £1M.

? Leon Osman: A solid player to many, but who will be interested? The likes of Fulham, WBA and Blackpool perhaps? £3M.

? Yakubu: Depending on his success in Leicester I guess. A fail there and his prize will plummet further. Now, £3-4M.

? Victor Anichebe: £1-1.5M.

? Joao Silva: 0

? Barkley: £1.5M for words of promise.

? Duffy: £500k-1M.

Brian Waring
28 Posted 11/02/2011 at 13:14:42
Paul, while I like your optimism, there is no way we would get £10m for Cahill, who is now 33 years of age.
Tony J Williams
29 Posted 11/02/2011 at 13:18:55
The problem with this number game is that we cannot step back and look at the players objectively.

We either love them or hate them and that means the figures guessed at will relate to our level of love/hate

Some derisory low quotes and some ridiculously high ones and as already stated the figures will unfortunately be decided more by what people are willing to pay than anything else.
Alasdair Mackay
30 Posted 11/02/2011 at 13:51:40
Too high on Cahill and Coleman.

Too low on Arteta, Baines, Anichebe and Jagielka.

I think an overall of £140m is probably about right!

Still not enough to pay off our debts and build a new stadium.
Paul Olsen
31 Posted 11/02/2011 at 17:22:36
Brian

If we could (supposedly) get £8mill for Saha this summer, why not?

£10mill is indeed unrealistic, but I don´t think we would want to sell anyway? £10mill would be a minimum to even have Moyes thinking about it.

In all honesty, he is one of the top 10 players in the world at that thing he does. Not a world-class footballer, but world-class at what HE does.
Paul Olsen
32 Posted 11/02/2011 at 17:24:22
And Cahill is 31 if I´m not completely wrong, not 33.

Born 1979
Brian Waring
33 Posted 11/02/2011 at 20:09:49
So he was born in December 1979... wouldn't that make him 32?
Lars Eidissen
36 Posted 11/02/2011 at 20:11:34
Brian, that would make Cahill (fairly recently) turned 31...

I still think £10m is a bit too much. All in all, Paul and me doesn't seem to differ too much. Surprised to someone top my £18m valuation of Jack though!

With the regards to Cahill/Arteta, I stand by my claim. Cahill offers something much more unique in the PL...consistently good for turning five or six tight matches in his team's favour over the course of a season. Arteta is a good central midfielder who can pick out a pass, but still somewhat a poor man's version of Fabregas, Scholes et al, while other clubs will have their own slightly lesser version.

I don't really see what Arteta could bring to a club that would warrant a £25m package for four years (£10m + £4m/yr wages).
Roman Sidey
37 Posted 11/02/2011 at 20:46:02
Not sure if I'll ever listen to Brian again after that little explanation about Cahill's age...
Peter Warren
38 Posted 11/02/2011 at 21:42:33
Hey Brian, are you the guy who worked out Yak was only 24 when he signed for us?
Brian Waring
39 Posted 11/02/2011 at 22:17:32
Hang on Peter, the Yak is still eligible for the U-21s!!!
Garry Martin
40 Posted 12/02/2011 at 09:01:15
I would say that EFC have learnt a valuable lesson with Pienaar: go into contract negotiation 2 possibly 3 years before the existing contract expires; if they sign, great... if they don't ? get shut!

It's the only way you can keep your asset's value at a reasonable level. It's probably the only answer that clubs have that agents (the killers of the game) can be handled. Sad state of affairs at the moment.

Gavin Ramejkis
41 Posted 12/02/2011 at 10:08:46
No matter what any player could raise through being sold, what is more important is the cost of a suitable replacement likely to be? Prices only go up unless we buy no marks or kids who aren't suitable or ready for the first team ? asset stripping nonsense only BK thinks is sensible.

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