It is between Us and Burnley

by   |   12/04/2022  37 Comments  [Jump to last]

Right, we are at the home stretch of the season – 8 games to play, 4 points separating Everton Football Club from the drop zone. I think Southampton, Brentford and Newcastle United will be safe. Leeds United are on a ‘new manager’ bounce, and they are playing good football, so I think they will also be okay.

3 among the present bottom 4 of the table will get relegated – Everton, Burnley, Watford and Norwich City. Watford and Norwich are nipping at Burnley’s heels – just 2 and 3 points behind respectively – albeit having played 1 game more than Burnley. Watford have been playing good football and they have some seriously good attacking players and Norwich have just registered an important victory that keeps them in the hunt, but it will take a minor miracle for either of them to jump above the other 3.

So, I think the last relegation place will be between Burnley and us. Our run-in looks like this:

Leicester City (H)
Liverpool (A)
Chelsea (H)
Leicester City (A)
Watford (A)
Brentford (H)
Crystal Palace (H)
Arsenal (A)

And Burnley’s:

West Ham Utd (A)
Southampton (H)
Wolves (H)
Watford (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Spurs (A)
Aston Villa (A)
Newcastle Utd (H)

On paper, Burnley have an easier run of games, especially the 3 games against imploding Southampton and Aston Villa. And their last game at home will be against probably an ‘on the beach’ Newcastle team who would have likely secured safety.

The point is that Lampard needs to get the players to approach each of the remaining 8 games with a ‘must win’ attitude. Yes, he needs to be pragmatic, especially away from home. But, he also needs to take a bold approach by asking the players to keep composure, and get us scoring more goals.

Our defence is what it is – but I firmly believe that the goals we score will be what will get us to safety. We have a decent forward line in Richarlison, Calvert-Lewin, Gordon, Gray, Van de Beek, even Iwobi. These guys need to start firing and putting a bit of daylight between us and Burnley.

The Goodison Park fans have been magnificent – especially since it became clear that we are in a relegation battle. They will play a crucial role in helping us with our remaining home games. There are exactly 40 days before the end of the season –- everybody needs to focus and stay positive and help our players achieve to the best of their ability. We can do this! COYB!

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Reader Comments (37)

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Lyndon Lloyd
1 Posted 12/04/2022 at 17:31:33
I wouldn't discount Leeds just yet seeing as we have two games in hand on them and they have a pretty rough run-in:

Palace (A)
Man City (H)
Arsenal (A)
Chelsea (H)
Brighton (H)
Brentford (A)

Tony Everan
2 Posted 13/04/2022 at 17:46:58
I too think Leeds will struggle for and will be back in the mix with two games left. Their next four are tough games.

For us the pressure is not off by any means, next up Leicester at home is massive. A win will give us some essential breathing space, and confidence, before Liverpool, Chelsea, and Leicester away.

Lee Courtliff
3 Posted 13/04/2022 at 18:18:35
Burnley were very poor on Sunday. Imo because they went into the game as favourites and Burnley aren't used to that.

With the 4 point gap, Dyche can go to his Moyes-esque underdog mentality and tell his players that everyone thinks they're already gone and the pressure is eased a little bit.

We must beat Leicester, Palace and Brentford at home and hopefully get at least a point against Chelsea.

Our away form has shown slight signs of improvement, despite results, and I'm a firm believer in the "we're due something away from home".

Just a couple of draws might be enough.

Jerome Shields
4 Posted 14/04/2022 at 05:36:05
It's still up in the air, until Everton find some consistency and improve away from home. Midfield seems to be critical for Everton. Frank will continue play Calvert Lewin in the hope that he will turn the corner. I suppose if you keep doing something it may come right. Frank has consistently played the same open attacking football style. He has some good results with it at home, but also has been badly exposed by it. A lot depends on which Everton will turn out for games. I am always sceptical of breaks in playing at Everton, since they appear to be viewed as rest periods at Finch Farm rather than for extra work. They should survive, but it will be a rollercoaster ride for fans
Kunal Desai
5 Posted 14/04/2022 at 05:52:58
I think we need 3 possibly 4 points from our next 3 fixtures. Get to 32 points and I feel that takes the pressure of the players somewhat, then needing only 4 points from Leicester (a), Watford, Brentford and Crystal Palace.

We have really got to beat Leicester next week. They play in the EL tonight and Newcastle on Sunday before our fixture. We will have had a 10 day break. There away record isn't great either in comparison to previous seasons winning at Burnley, Norwich and Brentford.

As for Burnley, not sure they are picking up 4 wins from there remaining 8 games having won 4 all season.

Danny O’Neill
6 Posted 14/04/2022 at 06:53:02
If we win one and Burnley lose one, suddenly there is more than daylight.

I know they are on a run with the new manager bounce, but despite that, I don't think Leeds are out of the woods. Certainly not out of touch from us. And look at their goal difference.

Even Newcastle, although I think they've done enough and have enough. As do we.

Eddie Dunn
7 Posted 14/04/2022 at 08:12:43
All the fixtures are hard for all the teams in the mix but like Lyndon, I think Leeds are still in the mire. I think Burnley's games look tough too and they have struggled to score all season.

That last place could even go down to goal difference so we need to park the proverbial charabanc at our old ground. (I'd love it if we nicked a point to scupper their title hopes.)

Paul Hewitt
8 Posted 14/04/2022 at 08:16:13
If we had just beaten Burnley, we would be safe now. I'm still furious we lost that game.
Christopher Timmins
9 Posted 14/04/2022 at 09:23:46
Burnley have the easier run in but they are 9 points behind Leeds and 4 behind us, they will do more than well to accumulate 10 points over their last 8 games. If they did manage to accumulate 10 points then we would need 7 points to stay up and you would have to hope that would be achieved in the games against

Leicester (h)
Palace (h)
Brentford (h) and
Watford (a)

Points on the board is the critical factor at this stage.

Brian Harrison
10 Posted 14/04/2022 at 09:41:06
I think Brentfords 4-1 win at Chelsea should have been a warning about trying to predict the outcome of games. I have absolutely no idea who will be relegated this season or how many points it will require to stay up. I just hope we manage to accumulate enough points to avoid the drop but, at this point, it's an unknown.

Many believed that Leeds replacing Bielsa would have a detrimental effect on them it hasnt in fact quite the opposite, in December the bookies had Newcastle being relegated now that looks unlikely.

So stop torturing yourselves trying to predict results and just concentrate on what we do next Wednesday, at the moment we are in a better place than Burnley, Watford and Norwich and let's hope it stays like that.

Dennis Stevens
11 Posted 14/04/2022 at 10:45:59
A big frustration has been our inability to turn any of our losses into draws since Chelsea in mid-December. Even 3 or 4 draws since then would have us in a much better position & there have been a few matches where that was an entirely plausible outcome, although sometimes the officials don't help much [v. Man. City, for instance!].
Danny O’Neill
12 Posted 14/04/2022 at 10:58:03
My brother picked that one out, Dennis, our inability to turn some of those defeats into draws would have seen us much better off.
Dave Abrahams
13 Posted 14/04/2022 at 10:58:10
Brian (10), very good post Brian especially the last paragraph but it is hard, for me anyway, to switch off and relax, more so when the other teams in the hangman’s noose are playing and waiting for their results, ie Burnley at Norwich on Sunday, what a relief when Norwich’s second goal went in!!
Jerome Shields
14 Posted 14/04/2022 at 11:12:47
For me Leciester are the bogey team in the run-in fixtures. The fact that they are two away games just adds to this. The other games I know what to expect and the probable strengths and weaknesses of Everton. Leicester have been bobbing about all season unnoticed.
Danny O’Neill
15 Posted 14/04/2022 at 11:36:53
I'm with both Brian and Dave here. It's impossible to predict. But it's equally impossible not to torture oneself by trying everything from which way the dogs point in the morning, to how many magpies I see in the park, deliberatley putting my left shoe on before my right one to which way the wind is blowing on matchday. Believe me, I try everything. When I can't be at the match I check for updates on my phone, eyes closed and slowly opening them as if it's going to make a difference to the score. I know, I need help.

4 points by next Sunday for Everton. Burnley lose the battle of the clarets in East London, followed by a 1-0 home defeat against Southampton.

Meanwhile Brentford beat Watford in what is my closest Premier league local Derby.

Simples. Calma as they say in Italiano

Laurie Hartley
16 Posted 14/04/2022 at 12:51:42
Well my missus (who is an Evertonian) wore her Royal Blue top before the Utd game. I have asked her (I don’t try to tell her anything) to wear that top before each of our remaining games.

I reckon we need 8 points. Eight from eight sounds doable - five from seven will sound even better.

Barry Rathbone
17 Posted 14/04/2022 at 13:43:52
Unless we break away in the next few games these players will be crushed by the pressure if it goes to the wire. It's still wing and a prayer time
Jerome Shields
18 Posted 14/04/2022 at 14:08:38
Sorry. A bit better on of the Leciester games at home a bit better hopefully.
Kieran Kinsella
19 Posted 14/04/2022 at 14:27:36

I’d rule out Leeds on the basis I don’t see both us and Burnley catching them. Maybe one of us, but Burnley have only won four games all season. I think it’s more a case of we could climb higher eg above Leeds or stay down there with Burnley

Steve Brown
20 Posted 14/04/2022 at 14:53:05
Leeds could lose 5 of their remaining 6 games, looking at their fixtures. They are still in the battle.

Our home games are key - play compact with intensity at home, play deep and go long away from home. Retain a back 4 and midfield 3 in all remaining games. Focus on set pieces in defence and attack. Back to basics for the rest of the season.

Play Gordon, Richarlison and Iwobi in every game they are fit for. Forget Alli, Gomes, El Ghazi for the rest of the season.

Pete Clarke
21 Posted 14/04/2022 at 15:39:30
I reckon we need 5 points and that would be enough just based on the fact that Burnley would need to win 4 games or 3 and 1 draw to top us.
They would need to do something they have just about achieved in 30 matches so far and I can’t see that happening as they are a poor team.
What we have to do is give solid rearguard performances and cut out the silly mistakes. Squeaky bum time but I have seen a small improvement happening lately and think the players who have come in may just have reassured the other players.
Time for Richarlison to stop banging his hand on the floor because he’s missed a good chance too. He owes us some goals from open play.
Nick White
22 Posted 14/04/2022 at 17:00:17
I think 2 more wins will do it for us. I don’t see Burnley making up that much ground, they really are a poor side (that we lost to)!
Simon Dalzell
23 Posted 14/04/2022 at 19:45:14
Good to see Leicester winning the European match. A huge distraction for them, with the 2 league games to come.
Rob Halligan
24 Posted 14/04/2022 at 20:20:36
I agree, Nick. Two more wins would put us on 34 points, which would mean Burnley would need to win three and draw one, from eight games, just to get to 34 points. Watford and Norwich would need to win five out of seven just to reach 34 points. Three wins for us and it’s game over.

Just want this miserable, shit season to end, re-group and start afresh next season.

Dale Self
25 Posted 14/04/2022 at 20:51:28
I think I'm with Tony 2 and Steve 20 on Leeds, I think Jamie also said they're not out of it yet. With Arsenal, City and Chelsea still to go they really have to win their Palace and Brighton games which aren't of high expectations. Two games more than us and Burnley leaves the Clarets hoping for a full slide but we could nick em by season's end. UTFT!!!!!
Brendan McLaughlin
26 Posted 14/04/2022 at 23:38:29
There's a reason why the bottom 4/5 clubs are where they are...they ain't putting a string of results together. Newcastle and Leeds are enjoying the "new manager" bounce...didn't quite happen for us. It's a scrap between us and Burnley...we'll win!
Brian Wilkinson
27 Posted 15/04/2022 at 02:23:26
Will get some freak results between now and the end of the season, so hard to predict.

Anyway as we are on the subject of last Day great escape, hard to believe now, but even a win for Everton would not have been enough, had Sheffield utd, who at the time were 2-1 up against Chelsea had either drew or won.

Half a minute into stoppage time, Chelsea scored the winner that sent Sheffield utd down instead of Everton, so you could say we were a matter of a couple of minutes away from the drop, what was even more Bizarre was the penalty we got and players hesitant to take it.

At one stage Big Nev strode down the pitch but thankfully Stuart took the ball off Nev, what we did not know at the time is Stuart’s only other previous penalty was for Chelsea, and he blasted it over the crossbar.

So it is not as bad as that final minutes end of season of 94, but we need to get a few wins to steady our nerves a little.

Jamie Crowley
28 Posted 15/04/2022 at 04:21:34
Dale @ 25 -

Yes! I did say that and stand by it. Leeds are not, by any stretch, out of it quite yet in my opinion. They have a brutal run-in.

After my last "friendly debate" on the American ownership thread, I'm hoping Leeds doesn't go down though, and Everton and Leeds both stay up. Leeds adhere to a metrics based / Moneyball approach to recruitment. And if they actually go down, after my passionate defense of Moneyball metrics approach to footy, a Leeds relegation will be used like a rubber hose to whip me with!!!

In the end, the nice thing about the win against Man U, is that we really do hold our destiny in our own hands. If Burnley go on a tear and win 50% of their remaining games, they finish on 36 points. That equates to us winning 3 of our remaining 8 games to stay up. Quite honestly, if we can't do that, we don't deserve to stay up!

I still can't believe we're even talking about this! Stay up, put this absolutely wet, steaming pile of chocolate soft-serve ice cream shit behind us, and move on! I'm eager to see what Frank will do in a full season next year.

Survive, and look to the future under a young, energetic manager who wants to play some fluid, high-octane footy.

We can't go down. It's literally surreal that it's possible. We have to wipe the slate clean, stick with our manger, gain consistency, forget the stupid signings and the merry-go-round of managers, and slowly and consistently move back up the table over the next few years.

Jamie Crowley
29 Posted 15/04/2022 at 04:25:58
Also, for those saying 34 points will see us safe, I have to disagree.

I think the magic number is 37. Don't know why, just have a feeling.

35 of 36 might to the trick. But 34 seems awfully low to me for survival?

Alan J Thompson
30 Posted 15/04/2022 at 06:45:03
Burnley's last game against an "on the beach Newcastle", wot, when they have an Evertonian at the helm?

Laurie(#16); Tell her she can wear the rest as well as that sort of thing can ruin your halftime cuppa never mind the match.

Sam Hoare
31 Posted 15/04/2022 at 08:13:59
I really hope we don’t need to get any result on our last day at Arsenal. I don’t think the players would be up to it and nor would my heart!

It’s gonna be tight one way or another. Hopefully Mina can come back and hit the ground running as he seems to make a huge difference to us. Could well be his last games for us so hopefully he gives us a good leaving present.

Leicester at home looks crucial before a very tricky run. They have looked much better recently with Fofana back to full strength and Dewsbury-Hall seeming quite a talent. Hopefully they are distracted by EL but look in decent form.

Danny O’Neill
32 Posted 15/04/2022 at 08:37:02
We're Everton. We'll do this but the unexpected and hard way!!

I can't wait until the summer Nd the look forward to next seasons challenge for European qualification.

Anthony Murphy
33 Posted 15/04/2022 at 09:14:38
We need to beat Leicester on Wednesday. Win that game and 5 points from the remaining 7 games is what’s required.
Dave Abrahams
34 Posted 15/04/2022 at 09:32:56
Brian (27), that Wimbledon game and I saw Southall striding up the field to take the penalty my heart sank, I thought what the fuck is he thinking of, luckily when he reached the half way line he was waved back by those on the bench, Neville had a twat of a game that day with centre after centre leaving him stranded and out of position, how Wimbledon never took advantage to score a couple more was down to providence as was the final score, a great ending but before that it was a nerve wrecking and heart stopping game and we had to endure it four years later under Howard Kendall’s disastrous and calamity ridden last season as Everton’s manager.
Nick White
35 Posted 15/04/2022 at 16:08:27
I can’t remember Nev coming up to take the pen! But thankfully Segers went the wrong way, if he’d saved that it would have been game over. Still the most incredible atmosphere I’ve ever known and with only 3 stands! The late Chelsea winner actually sent Sheff U down instead of Ipswich who only drew. We would have been safe even if they hadn’t scored.
Brian Wilkinson
36 Posted 15/04/2022 at 17:19:45
He only got as far as the half-way, Nick, but knowing Nev he would have been crazy enough to take it.
Jamie Sweet
37 Posted 21/04/2022 at 23:59:41
My irrational hatred of Southampton just got stronger. Is there a more pointless club in existence?

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