After 10 games in the Premier League we have now reached the end of the First Quarter in Season 2023-24.
Still plenty of football to be played but I think a few things are becoming clear. Some good, some bad. Here’s a few observations.
League Position
The table has us in 15th place on 10 points. However, with 3 wins in the past 5 games, we are building momentum. Only teams in the Top 8 are in form this good. So it seems fair to expect this will extrapolate to more than 40 points over a 38-game season – perhaps about 45-ish points.
There’s already a bit of distance between us and the three promoted sides (anyone still wanting to replace Sean Dyche with Vincent Kompany now?) and Bournemouth (our closest match, player for player). We should be confident that distance will grow, which means we won’t be relegated despite the gloom merchants who (a) have an irrational hatred of Dyche, and / or (b) refuse to acknowledge the good early-season performances because of the crap results.
I predicted a 13th-place finish at the start of the season which still looks about right to me. Obviously, a bit crap but I think that would represent over-performance for a team with about the 15th best squad (not just First XI) on paper.
We could even finish in the Top 10 but it will take luck with injuries (something we can’t control) and plenty of heart and hard work (something we can control).
Cups Competitions
Not much to say other than we’re still in both cups and Dyche appears to take them seriously. It’s not often we can say that at this stage of the season. With a bit of luck, we can have a decent cup run. It would be absolutely brilliant to win a cup. The club (and me) would get a huge lift.
First XI
Finally, a clear First XI is emerging with square pegs in square holes. It’s a fairly consistent 4-4-1-1 / 4-5-1 / 4-3-3 variant which suits the players at our disposal.
The clear structure, consistent personnel and sensible tactics (more below) mean that young players are developing and improving. It also means that partnerships are emerging across the pitch for the first time in ages. Consequently, we’re becoming a “more than the sum of its parts” team.
We’re also seeing some (albeit still patchy) outstanding individual performances from Branthwaite, Mykolenko, Onana, Garner and Calvert-Lewin. This time last season, it was only Pickford at this sort of level and maybe McNeil (and all too briefly Mina).
A special shout-out to Sean Dyche too regarding Dominic Calvert-Lewin, making sure the player was in proper physical condition before returning him to the starting line-up.
Unfortunately, there’s not much depth beyond that First XI – although the likes of Beto, Chermiti and Danjuma (and, who knows – even someone like Godfrey) may yet make a telling contribution.
Tactics
Despite being labelled a dinosaur by some (largely down to having the temerity to have once over-achieved with penniless Burnley), Dyche is astute tactically – and the well-organised, low-possession, counter-attacking system makes sense for a developing side carrying a few limited players.
However, this poses some problems. Christopher Timmins wisely noted in a thread that we are “top 10 without the ball; bottom 10 with the ball”.
Whilst we can work on that and are improving, I think the lack of quality in key positions will mean we’re going to look a bit rubbish:
· When the opposition scores first, and can then sit back a bit;
· At home against other mediocre teams who play us at our own game; and
· Against quality teams, like Arsenal, who did a job on us by adapting their tactics to nullify ours.
This means home form in particular might be extremely infuriating. Because of our lack of quality, Dyche is going to struggle to find an answer to this. This will get mistaken for tactical inadequacy with calls for the new flavour of the month manager (or the likes of Potter or Lopetegui) to step in to replace our “dinosaur”.
However, add prime Richarlison and Sigurdsson to this team and you’d see the difference. It’s not a case of shuffling between formations or swapping one limited player for another. What we really need is better players and more of them.
Reinforcements
Unfortunately, it looks like we might have to get through the season with more or less what we have now. The financial issues mean we probably can’t afford to buy in January. The youth academy shows no sign of producing a quality youngster ready for the first team and (very sadly) it looks like Dele Alli is not (for a variety of reasons) going to rebuild his career (and his life) with us.
This means that injuries and possibly Afcon could really hurt. It might be that, more than anything else, which holds us back this season. If Dyche could be given funds for just two £25M players (peanuts these days), I think we would be pushing Top 8.