Predicted Final Positions — Follow Up

Some of you may remember me posting this back in August before the season started:

Predicted Final Positions

It was meant as a bit of fun and it seems I forgot to revisit the predicted positions after 19 games. As it happens, after 19 games, Everton had 26 points and were sitting in 10^th position. But in reality, we were in 17th place on 16 with the first 10-point deduction (pre-appeal).

The average predicted position seemed to be around 14th. Not too far from our final position. 

As many pointed out at the time, there were likely to be many variables, ifs and buts, too many contingencies (including points deductions!) to correctly predict — especially as the predictions took place before the end of the transfer window.

So it was that we finished 15th with the points deductions, 12th without any deductions – although of course it could be argued that our season would have been different if there had been no deductions – we could have fared better or worse!

I won’t do a full analysis. I will leave it up to you to spot your name in any comments you might have made but congratulations to those who predicted 15th or 12th. Honourable mentions to the following:

Although Tony Everan didn’t predict 15th himself, he did indicate the bookies had us finishing 15th based on the relegation odds – of course, his own prediction of 12th would have been correct without the points deductions.

Rob Halligan hedged his bets by placing us between 10th and 15th.

Bryan Houghton deduced “With a points deduction, we're going down, albeit with a fight. Without a deduction, 14th“ Definitely glad he got the first part wrong!

Michael Lynch declared “Our manager is our best hope of avoiding relegation“ and thought “Dyche will pull us through, but unless we sign a few more players before the window shuts, I expect no higher than 15th.“  

Paul Hewitt went for “I'm going 15th. For a bit more fun. Top 4.“ Well, he got one of those correct.

Kieran Kinsella thought that “injuries and no reinforcements to cover for the African Nations Cup, then 15th; if we avoid injuries, as high as 10th.“ We didn’t avoid injuries, so 15th it was.

Alan Thompson declared “I don't think I've ever started a season with so little optimism and don't see us doing much better than Bottom 6 but hopefully not involved in a last-two-game survival fight.“ He got both those right.

Paul Ferry was correct with his thought ‘“that we will end up in the 12th to 15th belt“ and went on to provide a much fuller explanation of what might impact the season. Interesting to read those points back.

On the other hand, a few followed the brief which was “Don't need a reason or justification behind the predicted table position, literally just the number." Special mention to Chris James who succinctly replied with “12th”. 

Bill Griffith thought “we could finish somewhere between 11th and 15th so I will go for a 13th-place finish.” Close enough.

Jay Harris’s epiphany led him to think we would finish 9th, woke up, smelled the coffee went for between 12th and 16th!  

Who knows… I might ask the same question again before the season starts?

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