Fan Comment

How to go from nowhere to Champions League in no time at all

In response to the recent excellent thread about whether Carlo Ancelotti should get the chop, I made the observation that successful clubs need both an excellent manager and excellent players.

Personally, I think excellent players often mask the shortcomings of a manager. I think we'll eventually find that out with Frank Lampard at Chelsea. There's only a very few managers to ever really elevate a club beyond the ability of the players — and that's often a never-to-be-repeated trick.

We currently have the 7th most valuable squad in the Premier League. And Carlo is a really good manager. Ergo, Carlo is likely to get us to 7th place or thereabouts. Any better is a tremendous achievement.

To put this into context, squad values are:

1. Liverpool (€1,080M)
2. Man City (€1,080M)
3. Chelsea (€838.9M)
4. Man Utd (€799.85M)
5. Spurs (€738.55M)
6. Arsenal (€631.95M)
7. Everton (€508.3M)
8. Leicester City (€469.00M)

So, we're not just a bit behind those above us, we're miles off in terms of first 11 and, importantly, squad depth. We're talking hundreds of millions difference. In terms of player quality, that is huge.

Add to that the clubs above us have at least as big transfer budgets. So how do we improve the value of our squad, rise up that list (which generally corresponds to league places) without outspending our rivals?

One answer: over to Marcel Brands.

I get the point. It's kind of what he's been hired to do. But how? To my mind, the obvious answer is to look for clubs which have undergone similar transformations — and then copy the method. The most startling transformation of any club — perhaps ever — is that of RB Leipzig.

At the start of the 2013-14 season, we were about to embark on a brilliant (by our standards) season en route to 5th place under Roberto Martinez. Leipzig in the same season were in the third tier of German football, in a division alongside Stuttgart and Dortmund's reserves. Their squad value was valued at €8.03M. Fast forward to today, they are a force in the Champions League and German football with a squad value of €527.68M (a bit north of ours).

They are where we want to be as a club; so how have they done it? The easy answer is that they've thrown money at it. And this is true. Red Bull have ploughed millions into transfers — and created a feeder club with RB Salzburg which in turn has a feeder club called FC Liefering. Liefering and Salzburg are picking up a lot of unknown teens from Eastern and Central Europe, France and Africa. So basically there's an excellent scouting network too and a way to develop all of the players in competitive adult football from an early age before they are ready to play for Leipzig.

Our global scouting network has recently been overhauled, as someone better informed than me noted on another recent thread. Our UK transfer ban on non-professional teens has also been lifted recently, so there's a bit of hope. I have no idea how this compares to the Red Bull arrangements but I'm guessing we're behind.

What else can we learn?

1. The average age of the current RB Leipzig squad is just 23.8 (ours is 26.1).
2. Their transfer record is €29.75M for Naby Keita (ours is €49.4M for Gylfi Sigurdsson).
3. They've exceeded €20M only 4 times (compared to 20 times for us).
4. They're mostly spending between €10M and €20M on players.
5. They've bought 7 players from Salzburg.
6. Almost everyone they buy is under 22 (we're more like 26 — with some expensive signings plenty older than that).
7. They've sold on quite a few at very big profit (Keita and Werner in particular — we obviously did very well with Stones, Lukaku and Fellaini).
8. With others, they tend to make a bit of profit or at least break even because the player is still full of youthful promise.
9. We've been stuck with some really big signings on the payroll that we can't shift or who are worth practically nothing by the time we come to sell.
10. They have no superstars and have never attempted to buy any.
11. They don't seem to have much of a local youth set-up — instead, picking up youth from other clubs (particularly Salzburg). This may be changing — I have no idea.

By adopting this approach, they have increased the value of their playing squad by over half a billion Euros in just seven years. As a consequence of having such a good squad, they have gone from playing third tier / reserve football to competing in the Champions League in the same timescale.

With Everton, it is fair to say that we've gone backwards. This is a remarkable achievement given that, in the same 7-year period, we've had more money to spend than ever. During our years of austerity, Moyes regularly had us as best of the rest when there was a big 4. Martinez gave us a thrilling first season — but since then it's been downhill. Despite all the money spent, we are now a mid-table side trying (and failing) to stay ahead of Leicester and Wolves. The acquisition of Doucouré, Allan, Godfrey and Rodriguez has given us a really good first 11 but it's not given us a better first 11 than any of the big 6. Neither has it greatly improved the depth of the squad — which is still very patchy, as recent injuries and suspensions have exposed.

What is our next step?

Well, of the players we have, only a few would manage to get game time in a top-6 side. I'd say Holgate, Digne, Allan, Rodriguez, Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin. Mind you, I'm not convinced any apart from Richarlison would be a regular first-teamer.

That means (and I think we all realise this) the squad needs a serious overhaul. It's not just the back-up, it's the first team. Players like Gomes, Delph, Sigurdsson, Bernard etc are getting worse, not better. Then there's the mediocrity in Pickford, Mina, Iwobi etc. When we have to rely on these players without all the stars, we look truly awful.

So the next step, if we are to improve, is to commence the overhaul in Summer 2021. This is convenient because we lose a lot of deadwood from the wage-bill. This might give us a bit more spending power.

That spending power could be bolstered by a big fee for Moise Kean (£50M?) and a very big fee for Richarlison (£100M?). Losing the latter would be a really big blow. We would lose goal threat, pace and work rate in one player. He's one player I will be really sad to see leave. But leave he will, this coming summer or next.

With so much money to spend, who do we spend it on?

Well, if we finish outside of the top 6, then we simply cannot go out and buy the likes of Leipzig's Upamecano, Laimer and Sabitzer. Not because we don't have the money — but because they will have much better offers. This leaves us in the same sort of position we were in with the Lukaku money, trying to break into the top 6 through buying expensive players who are not good enough for top 6 sides (eg, Sigurdsson, Schneiderlin, Keane etc). It is obvious really that this is not a good plan.

Which is why I think we should at least consider what Leipzig would do.

One option would be to invest the Kean and Richarlison money into a genuine feeder club — say Hearts or Aberdeen. I have no idea how it would work — but it would be a good base for young British talent to flourish alongside some exciting youngsters from further afield. That would be a really bold move. I'd love this.

Another option would be to buy the sorts of players Leipzig buy. There's no secret to this — it is simply to select very high-quality talents aged circa 19 to 21. Between us, Sam Hoare and I can probably name dozens just off the tops of our heads. There's plenty out there. I'm sure actual scouts have heard of Hlozek, Veron, Kai Jorge and Talles Magno. They'll all be playing for big clubs in Europe soon enough.

Looking at Leipzig, players in their ranks we could easily have bought are:

1. Olmo (excellent young Spanish playmaker)
2. Angelino (excellent Spanish left-back from Man City's reserves)
3. Nkunku (excellent attacking midfielder from PSG's reserves)
4. Mukiele (excellent right-back from France)
5. Henrichs (pacey right-sided player from Monaco)
6. Kluivert (son of the famous father)
7. Sorloth (the crap lumbering Crystal Palace striker who turns out to be quite good).

Provided we can offer good wages and a route to the first team, this is eminently possible. These players tend to cost much less than we typically spend, so you can buy more of them. The ones that don't work out are still very marketable so you don't lose the money. You can even make money on failure (eg, Vlasic, Lookman and Onyekuru).

So, within a year or two, your circa £15M outlay becomes worth between £15M to £30M and beyond. This is not about sell-on value, it is about improving the value and quality of our squad. Someone who increases in value is getting better (eg, Richarlison, Kean etc). Someone who decreases in value is getting worse (eg, Bolasie, Sigurdsson, Walcott, Tosun etc). If the players on your books are getting better, then results should be improving too. As we have seen over the past few years, the reverse is also sadly true.

And it's not just Leipzig that's proved this works; it is us. Although the recruitment policy has been a mess, every time we've bought a player in this category it was worked well. Look at Holgate, Coleman, Branthwaite and Calvert-Lewin. Look at Stones, Fellaini, Lukaku. Look at Onyekuru, Lookman and Vlasic. I'm not really sure why we do anything else.

The downside is that you have a wait few years for players to mature. That is exactly what Leipzig have done and continue to do — show some patience. And it's not even been much patience. Contrast that with our wait of 30 years or more for something decent to happen.

As for next summer, Leipzig have already signed the excellent Gvardiol for next season (18-year-old Croatian centre-half linked strongly with Leeds this summer). They are sticking to their guns despite the success. I expect they'll take Szoboszlai from Salzburg too unless Salzburg get a huge offer from elsewhere (he's magnificent).

As for us, it'll probably be nothing like the Leipzig model. Perhaps Isco, Aarons and Sarr. And a few more if Richarlison goes. And we'll be hunting down 7th place as usual. But it will be interesting to see, given that our squad values are almost neck and neck right now, which team materially improves that value (and challenges for trophies domestically and in Europe) and which stands still. We can measure this, season on season, for the next few years. Anyone think we'll keep pace with Leipzig?

Reader Comments (9)

Note: the following content is not moderated or vetted by the site owners at the time of submission. Comments are the responsibility of the poster. Disclaimer

About these ads

---

---