Projected League Results

I find on my return that there is now a 'Projected League Results' thread, which gives fans the opportunity to debate fixtures that have yet to be fulfilled, I can only imagine that this is some sort of light entertainment in a period of more serious concern.

The table adds on last season's results in the fixtures yet to be played to the results from the 22 games this season. It highlights that Spurs crisis might be worse than you might think. It also should give cause for optimism that 6th is still up for grabs, and we don't need to do much more than get 4 or 5 more points than we did last season. No miracles needed.

Anything can happen, and maybe some of the draws can become wins, and a few defeats become wins, then it will be interesting to see this table again with 6 games left.

I always enjoy your posts Steve, you are a really genuine Evertonian with a vast knowledge and understanding of not just the game but of our club, and I respect you for that, but surely this current post is a bit tongue in cheek?.
Onwards and upwards Blues

Look at each other team / ie win Sheffield Utd away that would mean we need 2 more points than them in 15 games / 45 points. ✅

Then look at next - I haven't look at table but suspect it's Wolves. Draw away with them means we need 4 more point than them in 15 games / 45 points but they have Europa. ✅

Don't know who's next in league probably Spurs. I would say they will be hard to catch and biggest rival. We would need a draw away and hope they progress in Champions league - clearly they are currently severely understrength so great opportunity.

Suspect them someone like Palace ahead - surely we can pick up more points than them - I think we have them at home which means we just need to beat them at home and gain more points over 15 games ✅

Arsenal - I think are poor, like us. Game at Emirates will be key.

My conclusion is ManU too far ahead for us to gain that many points on them but other than that I see Spurs as main rivals followed by Arsenal owing to fact they will pick plenty of points up at Emirates. Sheffield Utd squad will be stretched come February and I daresay Wolves will feel the Europa.

And the "fund" manager is also important in football.

On the question of investments funds, a piece of research this week says that you have the same success with picking investment funds by throwing a dart at a list of funds, as does a professional investment manager.

Joe, the history here is that they used to publish such a table in a fanzine or the official programme. Phil Kelsall Roberts used to replicate it in the early days on this site.

I was always fond of maths, and I blame Everton for that. At a very young age, my dad was amazed to see me writing out the league table before the game and working out where Everton could be by the end of the day. In the days before the internet and the "as it stands" table, you needed a pad and pencil, preferably one with a rubber on the end to update it as the goals went in.

I used to always enjoy Phil's work and after about 10 games, you can see the season start to take shape on the projected table. When it disappeared off this site, I started doing it myself, just for a bit of insight. The thing you learn when you have to input all the new results and you are looking at all of least seasons results, for every side, is just how many results stay the same. You would be surprised. Which is why this table is a good barometer after the half-way point.

Look at two of the early strugglers, Watford and Southampton. After 12 games both were in the relegation zone and had 8 points each. The projected table then said not to worry, Saints are actually only 1 point worse off. It projected they would get to 38. Since then they have recovered and pulled off some great results and this is reflected in the new projected as they have got to 46.

Watford meanwhile were looking dead and buried. 5 points is a lot to lose, but the projection still had them well above the drop requiring them to shed a load more points to go down. Their recovery is shown by clawing back 4 of those lost points and now being projected to finish in 10th.

Spurs were the big shock early on, but the revised projected table really highlights the trouble they are in. They have a difficult five games coming up where they lost a lot of points last season and if they follow those results they will be bottom half and only recover into the top half in the last few games.

A prediction I would make based both on the numbers, and on my eyes, because that is where this works best, is Newcastle to go down. Newcastle were 5 points up on last season after 12 games, and since then have lost 8 points on last season in the next 10 games. Whilst Almiron might have hit a golden patch of form, I see a poor side struggling (yes down to injury to an extent) and with a poor manager and a 㿔m flop of a striker, I can see them struggling to hold onto the 16 points they achieved last season from the 16 games they have left, particularly as one is a win over Man City.

Norwich, Newcastle and Bournemouth or Brighton go down for me.

Steve, evidently you don't sleep or eat much, given the time you expend in contributions to this board while (apparently), maintaining your law practice. Thank you for the effort.

My own impression is that three unaccountable factors will impact the accuracy of this guesstimate -- morale, injuries and January transfer business. With injuries hitting us harder than most, I'm less than sanguine about whether our midfield depth will be sufficient for the estimated performance levels in the remaining games. And without new signings or unexpected contributions from young players like Gordon, I think 8th is very optimistic and 6th is unattainable. At this point my eyeball test tells me there are 8 clubs in the league that are simply better than us this season, the obvious 7 plus Wolves, and despite all their problems we will simply not pass Spurs and Arsenal. Their new managers will right their ships, as will ours.

As you can see, they lost 7 of their next 9 games last season. They're badly out of form and missing Harry Kane. If they can get back on form and win some of these game then it would go a long way to recovery. But as I said, doing the numbers all the time, these results stay the same a lot more than you might think.

So Liverpool have 4 points more than at the same stage as last season, whilst Man City have 6 points less. I suppose you only need a drop in form or some injuries to one of them, and a sequence of wins from the other, to produce an end result quite a bit different from the projection.

It shows that Evertons plan, if there was one, is not progressing as exspected. Ancelotti has a enormous task to change things around. There is no way a less experienced Manager would have had a mission of doing so in the job.

Spurs deflation is spectacular , from a Champions League Final.

Surely you have witnessed enough football matches to know that anything can happen in a game, for example Southampton 0 Leicester City 9, Leicester City 1 Southampton 2

I find it easier to discuss matches that have taken place, rather than speculate on results of games that have yet to be contested, but I suppose that I grew up in a less scientific era. I have already revealed on this site, that I'm known by some as 'Johnny McFossil'.

Ie the discussion above about city and Liverpool. And the fact that if city win the league then it requires a collapse by Liverpool as city cannot claw the gap back themselves.

It's an indicator. Not a crystal ball as in the early stages of the season, all it shows you is what happened last season.

As regards Johnny “McFossil” you do yourself a disservice. Hopefully when Phil Kelsall Roberts logs on he can confirm where he first got the idea for this from, because I believe it goes a long way back, John. It's not a modern idea.

The thing with statistics is it's not the be all and end all. It's something that can help you see things. It doesn't give you the answers. I prefer to look at things from a different side to how I would if I just went the match.

Each to their own, eh John?

The other being a home win against the RS which I really want to happen. Cheers Steve

Factors such as you've mentioned, to do with the real world and its tendency to turn on a sixpence, make projections very uncertain and usually of little use.

Brighton are 3 points better off than last season, but such is the raising of the bar, that they are in the bottom 3. I think they will keep improving and will be able to get themselves clear.

Aston Villa, based on Huddersfield's numbers, are in a ton of trouble. But I think those numbers mean very little, to be honest. Whilst Villa sit second bottom, I think Villa will find a way out of it, and Huddersfield got more points from the remaining 16 games, than they did from the 22 played so far, indicating that Villa still have favourable games left.

At the end of the season, you can see some massive results as teams reverse results and a 6 point gap over the victorious team can be wiped out in that 1 game. For example, if Liverpool beat City, the 17 point gap becomes 23 points as Liverpool move to 106 and City drop to 83. Or say we win at the Emirates, Arsenal drop to 55 and we move onto 55 as well.

Just a little bit of harmless fun.

At the start of the season, me and a few mates each predict the finishing position of all 20 PL clubs. There are always clubs that surprise you by either performing better or worse than expected.

Sadly, the top six in recent years has become very easy to predict. The middle range a lottery. For the relegation spots the key factor for me is always the number of goals a team concedes, especially if that has been the case over a number of seasons.

In that regard, the current table upholds that theory. The most porous defences are Norwich (45 conceded to date - more than two a game) and Villa (43 - again, just shy of two goals conceded per game).

Next worse is Southampton with 39, but if you take away the complete outrider result of the 9-0 home loss to Leicester, they would have conceded less than Everton (32).

I'm not surprised Bournemouth are down there too. Eddie Howe has always just about squeezed enough results out of a season to keep them up, but since they got promoted their record of goals conceded reads 67, 67, 61, 70 and currently 35. This puts them on course to another 60+ goals against this season.

Their goals against has placed them in the poorest 2-4 teams in the league each season for goals conceded. That will eventually catch you out. This could well be the season it does.

On my theory that the teams who concede the most being the teams most at risk of relegation, Burnley needs to be careful. They are the 4th worst for goals conceded on 37 and have been on a poor run for some time now.

You have to smile, when considering these numbers, that some lobbied for the likes of Howe and Dyche to replace Silva.

Shocking to think, then, that under Silva Everton lost all three games to the three teams currently sat in the bottom three. And in two of those, we couldn't score against the two worst defences in the league.

Oh, and welcome back John McFarlane Snr, you have been missed as echoed by many other TW members, your input is always not only welcomed but also informative from a much respected and senior blue.

In my youthful days I must have [wrongly] predicted the outcome of many games, but fortunately for me my mistakes were not highlighted globally, and being the 'dinosaur' that I am, I yearn for the 'Good Old Days'?

Nobody would have had Watford to be bottom of the table mid way through the season, nor have predicted their revival under Pearson.

Nobody would have predicted our form until December, nor the form post Derby.

Nobody would have predicted Spurs' fall from grace.

And we certainly wouldn't have predicted what the other lot are achieving.

Let's just take one game at a time. A face off with Moyes' West Ham, this could go either way.

Hope you are in good health and continue so.

Steve,
First of all compliments on spending so much time throwing useful information for debate on TW.

One thing you cant factor in yet is the January signings and I don't foresee Levy or Mourhino throwing the towel in although Spurs over the last few years have dropped off in the second half of the season.
I see Spurs making significant signings and making a real fist of it for the rest of the season. Sheffield United look the most vulnerable as the season wears on I can see them tiring. Wolves are a very well run club with a good manager so I see them maintaining. Leicester also look to have hit a run of bad form but look to have enough in the tank to stay top 6.

We by comparison are running on empty unless we can get some significant signings over the line especially in MF.

It will be interesting to revisit the table in a months time and see how things look then.

Hi Jay [41] thank you for your compliment, I'm afraid that my 'Caveman' attitude is something I can't claim credit for, because my upbringing in the district of Everton [although humble] has dictated that I treat everyone with respect, and although I may not be the victim of verbal abuse, I still find it distasteful.

We all have a little knowledge of football, I myself having been involved in the amateur game [Sunday League level], lots of endeavour and loads of Guinness. Some posters appear to me to take pleasure in the perceived failings of the Board, the team Manager and playing staff, giving vent to their feelings in an unacceptable manner. I feel that we all have our favourite themes; mine is nostalgia, others impart their views on team selection, tactics. formations, and player recruitment. My outlook is to leave these things to those who have the responsibility of dealing with such issues.

I may receive a bit of stick for this post but my contributions are based on experience, having witnessed relegation in 1951 and a couple of near-misses, promotion in 1954, League titles, FA Cup victories, and a European Trophy. I wish a similar successful future for my Grandson, the present generation and future generations.

I feel a bit better on the Everton situation, there has been an improvement in form but I still think that we could be a little more direct in our approach, however, it's not within my remit to solve the problems, I can only offer vocal support.